Биткоин может восстановиться до $90 тыс на фоне ослабления опасений по поводу инфляции после заседания FOMC

cryptonews.ruPublicado a 2024-11-20Actualizado a 2025-03-20

Биткоин может восстановиться выше ключевой психологической отметки $90 000 на фоне ослабления опасений по поводу денежной инфляции в крупнейшей экономике мира.

Более чем двухмесячный нисходящий тренд биткоина вызвал многочисленные опасения, что текущий бычий цикл биткоина может закончиться, что противоречит теории четырехлетнего рыночного цикла.

Несмотря на широко распространенные опасения инвесторов, биткоин может быть на пути к восстановлению выше $90 000 из-за ослабления опасений по поводу инфляции в Соединенных Штатах, по словам Маркуса Тилена, генерального директора 10x Research.

«Мы можем увидеть некоторое ралли против тренда, поскольку цены перепроданы, и есть большая вероятность, что ФРС будет умеренно голубиной», — сказал Тилен.

«Это не крупное бычье развитие, а скорее тонкая настройка со стороны политиков. Мы думаем, что BTC будет находиться в более широком диапазоне консолидации, но мы можем торговаться обратно к $90 000», — добавил он.

Дневной индикатор RSI биткоина. Источник: 10x Research

Уверенность инвесторов также может повыситься из-за комментариев председателя Федеральной резервной системы Джерома Пауэлла, указывающих на то, что ФРС «останется на месте на фоне растущей неопределенности среди домохозяйств и предприятий», — написала 10x Research в сообщении X от 17 марта.

«Пауэлл также выразил сомнения относительно устойчивого инфляционного воздействия тарифов Трампа, сославшись на сценарий 2019 года, когда инфляция, связанная с тарифами, была временной, и ФРС в конечном итоге снизила ставки три раза», — добавила компания.

Тем временем инвесторы с нетерпением ждут заседания Федерального комитета по открытым рынкам (FOMC) для получения информации о денежно-кредитной политике ФРС на оставшуюся часть 2025 года, что может повлиять на аппетит инвесторов к рискованным активам, таким как биткоин.

Заседание FOMC имеет решающее значение для траектории BTC: аналитик

Трейдеры и инвесторы будут следить за любыми намеками на завершение программы количественного смягчения (QT) ФРС, «шагом, который может повысить ликвидность и рискованные активы», по словам Ильи Калчева, аналитика по распределению на платформе инвестиций в цифровые активы Nexo.

«Предстоящее решение ФРС может стать основным катализатором дальнейших движений», — сказал аналитик.

«Если председатель Пауэлл расправит свои голубиные крылья, биткоин может взлететь на обновленном бычьем импульсе», — добавил он.

«Однако сохраняющиеся опасения по поводу инфляции или подтверждение жестких финансовых условий, таких как повышенные процентные ставки или продолжающееся ужесточение ликвидности, могут ограничить потенциал роста», — пояснил аналитик.

Вероятность целевых процентных ставок ФРС. Источник: инструмент FedWatch от CME Group

В настоящее время рынки оценивают вероятность того, что ФРС сохранит процентные ставки на прежнем уровне, 99%, согласно последним оценкам инструмента FedWatch от CME Group.

Тем не менее, инвесторы сократили свои вложения в американские акции на рекордные 40 процентных пунктов в период с февраля по март, согласно последнему опросу Bank of America, что вызывает опасения, что опасения рецессии могут повлиять на ценовую динамику биткоина.

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