Отчет QCP Capital: ФРС и биткоины Silk Road — ключевые факторы давления на рынок

cryptonews.ruPublicado a 2024-08-09Actualizado a 2025-01-09

Аналитики QCP Capital опубликовали свежий отчет о ситуации на криптовалютном рынке, отметив, что биткоин отскочил до отметки $95 200 после успешного тестирования ключевой поддержки на уровне $92 500.

1-дневный график BTC/USDT. Источник: скринер криптовалют Cryptovizor

Давление со стороны макроэкономики

Протоколы заседания Федеральной резервной системы США указывают на усиление ястребиной позиции регулятора. ФРС планирует замедлить темпы снижения процентных ставок из-за возросших инфляционных рисков. Противоречивые данные с рынка труда усиливают неопределенность: опрос ADP показал замедление найма в частном секторе и роста заработной платы, тогда как отчет по открытым вакансиям и текучести рабочей силы (JOLTS) от 7 января продемонстрировал укрепление рынка труда.

Анализ опционного рынка

Специалисты QCP Capital отмечают изменения в ожиданиях трейдеров относительно будущей волатильности биткоина. Разница между мартовскими и июньскими опционными контрактами увеличилась на 1,5%, а между июньскими и декабрьскими превысила 1%. Это указывает на то, что участники рынка ожидают более резких колебаний цены биткоина в долгосрочной перспективе. При этом краткосрочные опционы с исполнением 17 января подешевели на 3%, что говорит о снижении ожиданий сильных движений цены в ближайшие дни.

Торговый диапазон

В связи с закрытием американских рынков из-за национального траура по случаю смерти 39-го президента США Джимми Картера (Jimmy Carter) аналитики QCP Capital прогнозируют консолидацию биткоина между $92 000 и $95 000. При пробое уровня $92 000 следующей целью может стать отметка $90 000. Дополнительное давление на рынок оказывает новость о планах правительства США продать конфискованные биткоины с площадки Silk Road.

Текущая ситуация отражает сложное взаимодействие технических и фундаментальных факторов на криптовалютном рынке. Макроэкономические индикаторы и действия регуляторов продолжают играть ключевую роль в формировании рыночных трендов.

Lecturas Relacionadas

‘Major loss’: New York Court rejects Kalshi’s injunction request

A New York court has denied prediction market platform Kalshi's request for a preliminary injunction. Judge Analisa Torres ruled that gambling regulation falls under state purview and that federal commodity law does not preempt state gambling laws, dealing a significant blow to Kalshi's argument that its CFTC oversight exempted it from state authority. Legal analyst Daniel Wallach described the ruling as a "major loss" for Kalshi and the CFTC, predicting it will trigger a domino effect, likely causing the CFTC to lose its related case against the New York Attorney General and advancing other state enforcement actions against prediction market providers like Gemini and Coinbase. Kalshi is expected to appeal the decision.

ambcryptoHace 4 min(s)

‘Major loss’: New York Court rejects Kalshi’s injunction request

ambcryptoHace 4 min(s)

Token FOLD Auction Imminent, What is The Interfold, Supported by Vitalik?

**Title:** FOLD Token Auction Approaches: What is The Interfold, Supported by Vitalik? **Summary:** The Interfold, a "confidential coordination infrastructure" previously known as Enclave, is launching its functional token FOLD via a Uniswap Continuous Clearing Auction (CCA) starting July 8th. Endorsed by Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin in May, the protocol tackles the core problem of governance bribery in decentralized voting (e.g., on platforms like Votium) by enabling multiple parties to compute a verifiable result without exposing their private input data. Its core technology, the Encrypted Execution Environment (E3), uses a distributed network of "Ciphernodes" that perform computations on fully encrypted data using Fully Homomorphic Encryption (FHE), with process integrity verified by Zero-Knowledge (ZK) proofs and decryption keys managed via Decentralized Threshold Cryptography (DTC) to eliminate a single point of trust. The primary application is CRISP (Coercion-Resistant Impartial Selection Protocol) for DAO governance, which ensures encrypted voting, "receipt-free" votes to prevent bribery, and verifiable tallying. The Interfold, developed by the Gnosis Guild team (creators of the Zodiac DAO tooling), positions itself as a focused solution to make on-chain voting truly un-buyable, realizing the vision of Vitalik's earlier MACI (Minimal Anti-Collusion Infrastructure) framework without its reliance on a single trusted coordinator. FOLD tokens will be used for Ciphernode staking, paying for computation requests, and protocol governance. Following the 48-hour auction, there is a 40-day cooling period where tokens can only be staked, with the official Token Generation Event (TGE) expected around August 19th.

Foresight NewsHace 5 min(s)

Token FOLD Auction Imminent, What is The Interfold, Supported by Vitalik?

Foresight NewsHace 5 min(s)

Bridging Traditional Funds and DeFi: Who Will Capture the Next Decade's RWA Dividends?

Bridging Traditional Funds and DeFi: Who Will Capture the RWA Decade's Value? Tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) is merging the 24/7, permissionless world of DeFi with the time-bound, regulated world of traditional finance. While the complexity is immense, the infrastructure layer enabling this fusion holds significant value. The total value of on-chain tokenized real-world assets now exceeds $33 billion. While tokenized U.S. Treasuries dominate, their share has fallen from 55% to under 45% in a year as other assets like institutional and private credit grow. The key differentiator for on-chain assets is *composability*, allowing capital to be recycled across multiple yield-generating strategies simultaneously. However, tokenized funds remain regulated products with daily NAV updates, KYC requirements, and redemption windows. Bridging these to DeFi requires solving core conflicts: pricing assets between NAV updates, enforcing compliance without stifling DeFi activity, and maintaining accurate accounting during cross-chain transfers. Solutions like the Centrifuge V3 architecture, in collaboration with LayerZero, propose a hub-and-spoke model. A single authoritative hub chain manages NAV, compliance, and accounting, while LayerZero's messaging layer syncs this data to spokechains where tokens can be freely composed in DeFi. This creates a high-barrier, essential middleware layer. The major incentive for institutions is the potential for recursive yield strategies—for example, depositing into a tokenized Treasury fund, borrowing stablecoins against it, and redeploying those funds into another yield-bearing asset, amplifying returns. Yet, risks remain: mismatches between on-chain instant redemptions and off-chain fund limits (as seen in recent private credit fund runs), pricing arbitrage due to NAV lags, and cross-chain settlement failures. Infrastructure must solve these while maintaining regulatory compliance. Just as SWIFT and Visa captured immense value as financial plumbing, the entities that build the robust middleware connecting traditional finance and DeFi are positioned to capture the next decade's value in the RWA space.

Foresight NewsHace 30 min(s)

Bridging Traditional Funds and DeFi: Who Will Capture the Next Decade's RWA Dividends?

Foresight NewsHace 30 min(s)

CFTC Accuses North Carolina Firm of $14 Million Crypto and Futures Commodity Pool Fraud

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has filed a civil action against Trevor Vernon and his firm, Argent Capital Management LLC, for allegedly operating an illegal commodity pool. The defendants are accused of fraudulently raising nearly $14 million from about 60 investors to trade cryptocurrencies, futures, and options. Regulators contend that Vernon misled investors by presenting the scheme as highly profitable through false performance updates, while in reality, the pool incurred consistent and significant losses, totaling at least $8.6 million. The CFTC also alleges that Vernon failed to register the commodity pool with the agency and made misleading statements about its regulatory status. The enforcement action, pending in a North Carolina federal court, seeks restitution for investors, monetary penalties, and permanent trading bans. This case underscores regulators' ongoing focus on policing unregistered investment schemes and ensuring accurate disclosures in crypto and derivatives markets.

TheNewsCryptoHace 53 min(s)

CFTC Accuses North Carolina Firm of $14 Million Crypto and Futures Commodity Pool Fraud

TheNewsCryptoHace 53 min(s)

AI Image Generation Without Training Speeds Up 1000%: Method: The Most Concise "Three-Stage Pipeline"

AI image generation is powerful but often feels slow for users. To address this without hardware dependencies, model fine-tuning, or dynamic runtime optimizations, researchers propose MrFlow (Multi-Resolution Flow Matching). This method uses a simple three-stage pipeline: first, generate a low-resolution structural draft; second, upscale it to high resolution in pixel space using a super-resolution model like Real-ESRGAN; third, add a small amount of noise and perform a single-step high-resolution refinement with the original model. This approach shifts most computations to the cheaper low-resolution stage, achieving up to 10.35x end-to-end speedup on models like Qwen-Image while maintaining image quality within ~1% of original outputs. Compared to other training-free acceleration methods, MrFlow offers better speed-quality trade-offs, works with various advanced models, and can be combined orthogonally with distillation techniques for further acceleration. The code and a ComfyUI plugin are openly available.

marsbitHace 1 hora(s)

AI Image Generation Without Training Speeds Up 1000%: Method: The Most Concise "Three-Stage Pipeline"

marsbitHace 1 hora(s)

Trading

Spot