Крипторынок подает редкий сигнал: альтсезон не за горами

cryptonews.ruPublicado a 2024-05-06Actualizado a 2025-01-06

Криптовалютный рынок готовится к началу долгожданного сезона альткоинов — периоду, когда альткоины опережают биткоин по доходности

Текущая динамика на крипторынке напоминает редкие исторические сигналы, предшествовавшие предыдущим альтсезонам. К такому выводу пришел криптоаналитик под ником TechDev в X (бывш. «Твиттер»), на которого подписано почти 500 тыс. человек.

Исторический контекст и текущие сигналы

По словам TechDev, исторически альтсезон начинался после того, как биткоин формировал новую шестимесячную свечу, преодолевая максимум текущего цикла.

Согласно графику аналитика, сейчас крипторынок вновь демонстрирует аналогичные признаки.

Шестимесячная свеча биткоина. Источник: X/TechDev

«Эта свеча — момент, когда альткоины делают те движения, которых ждут целых четыре года», — написал TechDev.

На достижение альтсезона уходит в среднем 1 280 дней после достижения BTC пика цикла. Подобные сценарии наблюдались в 2017 и 2021 годах и сопровождались падением доли биткоина в общей капитализации рынка.

По данным TradingView, на момент написания материала доля BTC составляет 57,20%. За последнюю неделю показатель снизился на 1,4%.

Еще один важный индикатор

Другой важный технический показатель — полосы Боллинджера. TechDev отметил, что альтсезон часто совпадает с моментами, когда биткоин достигает верхней границы этих полос на недельном графике.

Полосы Боллинджера — это индикатор волатильности, который трейдеры используют для определения перекупленности или перепроданности актива.

Полосы Боллинджера на недельном графике цены биткоина. Источник: X/TechDev

Если текущие сигналы подтвердятся, альтсезон может начаться в ближайшие месяцы. Тем не менее стоит помнить о высокой волатильности и непредсказуемости крипторынка, которые остаются его ключевыми характеристиками.

Ранее основатель CryptoQuant Ки Ен Чжу отметил, что новый сезон альткоинов будет трудным и необычным. По его словам, только некоторым проектам удастся добиться успеха в текущих условиях.

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