CryptoQuant: Bitcoin Could Fall to $51,000 After Forming a Local Top
CryptoQuant analysts believe Bitcoin is forming a local top, after which the risk of a new sell-off remains high. They identify a potential topping zone between $66,317 and $68,965, with an alternative scenario allowing a rise to $70,000. Following a peak, the next downside target could be around $51,336, representing a drop of roughly 21% from current levels. Negative signals include bearish divergence on the MACD indicator, RSI approaching overbought territory, and declining trading volumes during the recent rally.
On-chain data shows signs of potential bottom formation, with the 30-day and 100-day EMA of active Bitcoin addresses recently falling to levels similar to 2018-2019. However, analysts caution that this aligns with but does not confirm a bottom hypothesis. Key levels to watch are the EMAs at 609,688 and 621,957 addresses, and the June price low of $58,535. Trading below $58,535 would invalidate the bottom formation theory.
Significant resistance is seen at $67,000 and $72,000, corresponding to the realized price of coins held for 1-3 months and 3-6 months, respectively. These levels represent potential selling pressure as recent buyers break even. While the market shows some signs of stabilization, CryptoQuant maintains a cautious outlook, advising against large purchases at current levels and suggesting stronger cyclical buying opportunities could emerge near $51,000.
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