SignalPlus宏观分析(20240508)：ETF资金连续三周出现净流出

Odaily星球日报Publicado a 2024-05-08Actualizado a 2024-05-08

Resumen

宏观资产再次经历一个平静的交易日，价格基本上保持平稳。几位美联储官员发表谈话，观点出现分歧。ETF连续三周出现资金流出，Greyscale又大举流出4.59亿美元。

宏观资产再次经历一个平静的交易日，价格基本上保持平稳。几位美联储官员发表谈话，观点出现分歧，纽约联储 Williams（中间偏鸽派）呼应了 Powell 的观点，认为美联储的利率政策将由“整体数据、而不仅仅是 CPI 或就业数据”来决定，此外，他重申“我们最终会降息”，但货币政策目前仍处于“非常好的位置”，而且在非农就业数据公布后，就业市场正取得“更好的平衡”。另一方面，Minneapolis 联储 Kashkari（鹰派）表示，利率可能需要在“较长一段时间”内保持在当前水平，且“我们很可能需要在比预期更长的一段时间内按兵不动，直到我们知道货币政策产生什么效果”，此外，他也努力保留加息的选项，表示“我认为（美联储）加息的门槛相当高，但并非无限，当我们说‘好吧，我们需要做更多’时，总是有一个界线，这个界线是通胀顽固维持在 3% 左右。“

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240508)：ETF资金连续三周出现净流出

在数据方面，旧金山联储周末发布的评论称，疫情时代累积的超额储蓄已经耗尽，从 2021 年 8 月的峰值 $ 21 万亿下降至今年 3 月份的 -$ 720 亿。直接截取联储的评论：“只要能够通过持续的就业或工资增长…以及更高的债务来支持他们的消费习惯，即使超额储蓄耗尽也不太可能导致美国家庭大幅削减开支”，虽然目前情况可能确实如此，但这种现象与较高的利率和放缓的就业市场相结合，肯定会让宏观观察家重新开始关注更多经济放缓的迹象。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240508)：ETF资金连续三周出现净流出

资产价格方面没有太多值得关注的地方，不过企业正利用当前活动低迷时期进行另一轮发债热潮，周二有多达 14 家企业宣布发债，仅过去两天就有超过 340 亿美元的新债定价，远超此前的预期。而尽管企业债利差处于 2007 年以来最窄的水平，但需求仍相当强劲，超额认购超过 4.4 倍。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240508)：ETF资金连续三周出现净流出

在资金流方面，尽管目前估值较高，股票和固定收益在今年的资金流入仍保持稳定，没有任何停止的迹象。在加密货币方面，ETF 连续三周出现资金流出，Greyscale 又大举流出 4.59 亿美元（IBIT 数据尚未更新），导致 BTC 价格在纽约尾盘相应下跌 2-3% 。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240508)：ETF资金连续三周出现净流出

在正面的消息方面，根据 FTX 重整计划，“ 98% 的 FTX 债权人将在计划生效后 60 天内收到至少 118% 的索赔金额”，“其他债权人将收到 100% 的索赔金额，并有数十亿美元的赔偿金用来弥补投资的时间价值”。在处置所有资产后，FTX 预计将剩余高达 $ 163 亿美元的现金可供分配，远高于欠债权人的总额 $ 110 亿美元，讽刺的是，这可能会成为加密货币历史上最大的单一流动性 'off-ramp' 事件，债权人是否会将这些回收资金重新投入加密货币，还是会回归传统资产？真是个有趣的时代。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240508)：ETF资金连续三周出现净流出

您可在 ChatGPT 4.0 的 Plugin Store 搜索 SignalPlus ，获取实时加密资讯。如果想即时收到我们的更新，欢迎关注我们的推特账号@SignalPlus_Web3 ，或者加入我们的微信群（添加小助手微信：SignalPlus 123）、Telegram 群以及 Discord 社群，和更多朋友一起交流互动。SignalPlus Official Website：https://www.signalplus.com

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