一文探讨Filecoin铸造机制及其对流通供应的影响

Odaily星球日报Publicado a 2024-05-07Actualizado a 2024-05-07

Resumen

到2040年，进入流通的Filecoin数量将远远少于2B的理论最大代币供应量。

原文来源：Filecoin Network

一文探讨Filecoin铸造机制及其对流通供应的影响

要点 

  • 若保持历史最高加载率和更新率（一种激进的原始字节加载增长场景），到 2040 年进入流通的 Filecoin 预计总供应量为 1.27 BFIL。

  • 若加载量低于历史每日最高峰值，总供应量将会降低，这很有可能发生，毕竟在未来 16 年持续保持这一水平较为困难。例如，若当前的加载率保持不变，到 2040 年进入流通的 Filecoin 预计总供应量为 1.05 BFIL。

  • 综上所述，到 2040 年，进入流通的 Filecoin 数量将远远少于2B的理论最大代币供应量。

导言

Filecoin 采用混合铸造模型来鼓励持续且长期的存储供应。混合铸造模型结合了简单铸造和基线铸造，使区块奖励排放与存储目标保持一致。这使得 Filecoin 网络能够根据存储提供者向网络提供的效用（即存储能力）按比例进行激励。

在混合铸造模型中，一部分铸造奖励来自指数衰减（简单铸币），其余部分来自网络基线铸币。当原值算率（以下简称 RBP）高于基线时，基线铸币会呈指数衰减，但当低于基线时，会减慢至多项式衰减。当 RBP 达到或超过基线存储目标时，这种机制能让网络发放最大可能的奖励。基准存储容量的目标是每年将网络存储容量翻一番。

可视化自适应铸造

由于铸造是自适应的，因此直观了解已铸造的 Filecoin 量以及与可铸造上下限的比较情况，会很有帮助。若 RBP 达到或超过基线函数，则将达到上限；若仅进行简单铸造，则会达到下限。图 1 直观地展示了这些界限：

一文探讨Filecoin铸造机制及其对流通供应的影响

不同加载配置的铸币轨迹。粉色线表示若仅激活简单铸造，将开采的 FIL 数量（下限）；深蓝色线表示若 RBP 与未来基线（理论上限）匹配，将开采的 FIL 总量；浅蓝色线表示若网络 RBP 加载率和更新率分别维持在历史最高值（约 62 PiB/天和 100% 更新率）（高增长率），将开采的 FIL 数量；散列红线表示在当前加载率和更新率保持不变（分别为 4 PiB/天和约 50% 的更新率）的情况下，将开采的 FIL 数量。

注意，由于铸造是自适应的，未来开采总量取决于一些假定加载行为（详见下文注释 1）。该网络计算器可用于探索未来加载和更新的不同场景，以及这将如何影响 Filecoin 网络预计铸造的 FIL 总量。您可以尝试以交互方式探索，了解 Filecoin 铸造的不同场景。

对 FDV 的影响

这意味着什么？我们可以看到，在分配的可开采 1.1 BFIL 代币中，到 2040 年，实际可开采的代币数量最多是 0.953 BFIL 代币。具体数量将取决于未来的加载行为，但上限为 0.953 B。目前 RBP 的加载量约为 4 PiB/天，SP 更新了约 50% 扇区。若保持这一轨迹，到 2040 年， 0.953 B 可开采代币中只有 62% 将被开采。另一种情况是，若加载量增长到历史最高值 62 PiB/天，SP 对其扇区进行了 100% 的更新，那么到 2040 年，将有 85% 的可开采代币被开采（详见下文注释 2）。如果将其与可供开采的 1.1 BFIL 代币总量相比，这种影响会更加明显。在这种情况下，若维持当前的加载轨迹，到 2040 年，分配用于开采的代币总量只有 54.3% 会被开采。若加载人数增长并维持历史最高值，到 2040 年， 1.1 B 代币总数中将有 73.9% 被开采。

我们也可以从总供应量角度来看这个问题。下表显示了三种情况下按日期预测的总供应量，其中所有未来铸造都是：①简单铸造，②基于当前加载和更新的持续性，③基于历史最高加载和更新的持续性。在此，我们将总供应量定义为：总供应量=铸币+续存-消耗。请注意与流通供应量的对比，流通供应量的定义为：流通供应量=总供应量-锁定量。

一文探讨Filecoin铸造机制及其对流通供应的影响

各种铸造场景下 Filecoin 的预测总供应量（以十亿 FIL 为单位）（截至 2024 年 4 月 10 日）。

这对 Filecoin 的流通供应意味着什么？Filecoin 最多可以铸造2B FIL，但实际流通的 FIL 数量将远低于此。若保持当前的加载轨迹不变，到 2040 年，最多将有 1.05 B 代币进入市场流通。若 RBP 的加载和更新增长到历史最大值并保持这一水平，那么到 2040 年，最多将有 1.27 BFil 代币进入流通（详见下文注释 3）。

结论

综上，我们探讨了 Filecoin 铸造机制及其对流通供应的影响。通过使用一些界限作为比较点，我们发现到 2040 年，FIL 代币流通总量的实际上限可能在 1.05 B 到 1.27 BFIL 之间，低于规范中规定的2B FIL。这意味着到 2040 年，在“维持现状”和“保持激进”原始字节增长的情景下，代币总供应量分别比理论上限少 47.5% 到 36.5% 。

相关注释

1.无论网络算力高于还是低于基线，在无限遥远的未来，开采总量将渐近达到 1.1 B。然而，当低于基线时，达到该渐近值的速度要慢得多。因此，选择未来某个有限时间作为目标会更有参考价值，例如我们示例中的 2040 年，这两个预测值差异很大。关于聚焦有限未来时间的重要性的更多详细信息，请参阅此说明。

2.到 2040 年可开采的代币数量可能约为 0.953 B 代币。这低于规范中规定的 1.1 B 代币，因为基线铸造机制已经在网络 RBP 小于基线的时间段内生效。

3.这些预测考虑了 Gas 消耗，并在模拟窗口中进行了线性推断。未来 gas 消耗趋势的潜在变化或协议变化将改变这些预测。

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