SignalPlus宏观分析(20240305)：加密市场暴涨，情绪持续高涨

Odaily星球日报Publicado a 2024-03-05Actualizado a 2024-03-05

Resumen

传统金融市场昨天处于区间震荡，股市在近期区间内盘整，但由于企业债供应增加，整体收益率曲线走高。加密货币方面，主流货币/altcoins/memecoins都跳空走高，X/Twitter上到处都有投资者提到巨额收益。

传统金融市场昨天处于区间震荡，股市在近期区间内盘整，但由于企业债供应增加，整体收益率曲线走高。Powell 即将于周三/周四赴国会作证，企业纷纷急于在本周的前两天进行债券发行， 48 小时内预计将有 300-350 亿美元的债券完成定价。昨天主要的消息来自亚特兰大联储 Bostic，他在一篇文章中表达了担忧，认为降息可能会释放新的需求，从而加剧价格压力，他在问答中进一步表示，预计“首次降息后可能会暂时按兵不动，以评估影响…希望能够尽可能保持当前缩表速度”。

本周将迎来一连串美联储官员发言，包括 Daly（周三）、Kashkari（周三）、Mester（周四）和 Powell（周三至周四），市场将密切关注是否有进一步的鹰派调整信息。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240305)：加密市场暴涨，情绪持续高涨

在股票方面，没有特别引人注目的消息，不过 Bloomberg 指出，SPX 表现的集中度已达到历史极端水平，表现优于指数的成分股比例处于互联网泡沫以来的最低水平，换句话说，SPX 指数的上涨完全是由少数股票（例如 Nvidia）所推动的，即使是长期稳定的股票如 Apple 和 Tesla，年初至今的表现也落后于指数。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240305)：加密市场暴涨，情绪持续高涨

虽然股票的出色表现在很大程度上可以归因于巨大的 EPS 增长，但仍然有理由相信我们可能正在接近股票的中期顶部，几乎所有风险资产类别（股票、信贷、加密货币）的风险情绪都在失控边缘。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240305)：加密市场暴涨，情绪持续高涨

加密货币方面，主流货币/altcoins/memecoins 都跳空走高，X/Twitter 上到处都有投资者提到巨额收益。ETF 方面，交易仍保持活跃，根据 Bloomberg 的报导，交易量达到 55 亿美元，为推出以来第二高的日交易量。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240305)：加密市场暴涨，情绪持续高涨

当前永续资金费率非常高，许多交易所的年化费率在周末期间飙升至 50% 以上，而 BTC 期货基差也扩大至 30% 左右。FOMO 的现象在期权中更加明显，过去 24 小时内有大量 7 万到 8 万美元的看涨期权买盘。市场情绪持续高涨，BTC 在夏季前触及 10 万美元的预期也开始上升，提醒各位要注意风险，小心安全！

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240305)：加密市场暴涨，情绪持续高涨

您可在 ChatGPT 4.0 的 Plugin Store 搜索 SignalPlus ，获取实时加密资讯。如果想即时收到我们的更新，欢迎关注我们的推特账号@SignalPlus_Web3 ，或者加入我们的微信群（添加小助手微信：SignalPlus 123）、Telegram 群以及 Discord 社群，和更多朋友一起交流互动。

SignalPlus Official Website：https://www.signalplus.com

Lecturas Relacionadas

US prosecutors propose changes to CLARITY as voting window narrows: Report

US law enforcement organizations have proposed changes to the cryptocurrency market structure bill known as the CLARITY Act, as the Senate's window to vote narrows before a month-long recess. The groups requested alterations to provisions regarding developer liability within the bill. The White House crypto adviser indicated the proposals do not align with the administration's position. The legislation faces pushback from some Democrats over ethics rules related to former President Trump's crypto investments. Senate leaders have not scheduled a vote, and procedural hurdles make passage before the recess unlikely. A key aspect of the bill would shift primary regulatory authority over digital assets from the SEC to the CFTC.

cointelegraphHace 20 min(s)

US prosecutors propose changes to CLARITY as voting window narrows: Report

cointelegraphHace 20 min(s)

LIVE: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Speaks After Interest Rate Decision! Key Moments

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh held a live press conference following the Fed's decision to hold interest rates steady. He outlined several key points: The U.S. economy has shown impressive resilience, and the committee remains committed to a 2% inflation target, dismissing notions of a flexible target. Warsh noted the difficult challenge of high inflation over the past five years, stating it cannot be solved quickly. The committee is prepared to act when necessary and appropriate, avoiding forward guidance and focusing closely on incoming inflation data, particularly the PCE index. He emphasized that the current decision should not be simply characterized as "holding rates steady," as market perceptions differ. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 9-3 to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%. The dissenting votes, from the presidents of the Cleveland, Minneapolis, and Dallas Fed banks, called for a 25 basis point hike to combat persistent inflation exceeding the 2% target. They argued for tighter policy, citing household strain from high prices and the need for decisive action to ensure price stability.

cryptonews.ruHace 54 min(s)

LIVE: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Speaks After Interest Rate Decision! Key Moments

cryptonews.ruHace 54 min(s)

Critical Moments in Bitcoin: Cost Zones That Demand Attention Have Been Identified!

Analytics firm Glassnode reported that reduced expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts, along with pricing in possible rate hikes, have suppressed risk appetite in the cryptocurrency market. The Fed's interest rate decisions are crucial for market direction. U.S. Treasury yields have surpassed returns from crypto carry trades, leading investors to favor cash and low-risk interest-bearing instruments over crypto assets. A strong U.S. dollar further weakens marginal demand for crypto. Bitcoin is currently trading below its most intensive cost basis level, with approximately $69,000 identified as the breakeven zone and significant resistance for short-term investors. For a stronger recovery, Bitcoin needs to reclaim the $69,000 threshold with increased trading volume. Renewed active demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs is also deemed critical. According to Glassnode, the current Bitcoin decline represents the shallowest bear market in terms of price drawdown depth to date. However, based on previous cycle durations, this downturn may not be over yet. Spot trading volumes have fallen to multi-year lows, and sell-side order books have thinned, though many buy orders are placed significantly below current prices. Glassnode's risk indicator, Vector, signaled "risk off," suggesting a capital preservation mindset. The current market structure is being driven more by macroeconomic factors like monetary policy, bond yields, and dollar strength than by crypto-sector developments. Losing Bitcoin's support range of $62,000-$68,000, coupled with renewed exchange inflows, could negate the recovery scenario. Conversely, more favorable monetary policy, increased trading volume, a Bitcoin recovery above $69,000, and a resumption of spot ETF buying could signal a market turnaround.

cryptonews.ruHace 1 hora(s)

Critical Moments in Bitcoin: Cost Zones That Demand Attention Have Been Identified!

cryptonews.ruHace 1 hora(s)

Breaking News: Full Detailed Rationale and Explanation of the Fed's Interest Rate Decision Released!

As expected, the Federal Reserve kept its key interest rate unchanged at 3.50-3.75 percent, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate change. The Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) decision passed with a 9-3 majority vote. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan dissented, voting in favor of a 25 basis point rate hike. This was the first meeting since 2016 where three regional Fed presidents voted against holding rates steady, signaling growing influence among members advocating for tighter monetary policy to combat inflation. The Fed's statement noted that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace despite high uncertainty, partly due to Middle East conflicts. It highlighted that growth in productivity and investment remained strong, employment gains have aligned with labor force growth, and the unemployment rate has remained relatively stable. The Fed also committed to maintaining ample reserves in the banking system. The statement emphasized that inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target. It noted that supply shocks, including in the energy sector, are adding to inflationary pressures. The Committee stated it will continue to closely monitor incoming data and risks in pursuit of its price stability goal. The dissenting members argued that the target range for the federal funds rate should have been increased by 25 basis points.

cryptonews.ruHace 1 hora(s)

Breaking News: Full Detailed Rationale and Explanation of the Fed's Interest Rate Decision Released!

cryptonews.ruHace 1 hora(s)

LATEST NEWS: Here is the FOMC statement released after interest rates were left unchanged!

At its July meeting, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged in the 3.50–3.75 percent range. The decision was approved by a vote of 9 to 3, with three policymakers dissenting in favor of a 25 basis point hike, signaling heightened internal support for tighter policy within the central bank. The dissenting votes underscored the hawkish stance of the decision. The Fed stated that U.S. economic activity continues to expand at a solid pace while inflation remains above the 2% target, partly due to recent shocks. The statement noted that job gains have kept pace with labor supply growth and the unemployment rate has remained low. It also highlighted that productivity and capital investment growth remain strong. The Federal Reserve affirmed it will continue to maintain ample reserve levels in the banking system. The FOMC stated it will keep closely monitoring incoming data and risks in pursuit of its goals of price stability and maximum employment.

cryptonews.ruHace 1 hora(s)

LATEST NEWS: Here is the FOMC statement released after interest rates were left unchanged!

cryptonews.ruHace 1 hora(s)

Trading

Spot