SignalPlus宏观分析特别版：势不可挡

Odaily星球日报Publicado a 2024-02-29Actualizado a 2024-02-29

Resumen

正当人们开始担心当前的风险反弹可能会泡沫化时，Bitcoin 在24小时内从5.7万美元急升至6.4万美元左右，2月预计将成为BTC自2020年12月以来表现最佳的月份，涨幅超过40%。

正当人们开始担心当前的风险反弹可能会泡沫化时，Bitcoin 在 24 小时内从 5.7 万美元急升至 6.4 万美元左右， 2 月预计将成为 BTC 自 2020 年 12 月以来表现最佳的月份，涨幅超过 40% ，而随著 FOMO 热潮蔓延，现货 ETF 的交易量也激增至 76.9 亿美元，远远超过首个交易日 46.6 亿美元的纪录。

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版：势不可挡

美国的散户交易活动非常活跃，以至于 Coinbase 网站一度出现事故，客户余额显示为 0 ，并导致价格在几分钟内从 6.4 万左右突然暴跌 5% + 至约 5.9 万美元。Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong 在 X 上承认了这次平台事故，并重申投资者余额是安全的，他们还没准备好应对流量突然增加 10 倍以上，导致大范围的交易中断。

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版：势不可挡

Bitcoin 的抛物线走势促使一些宏观观察家对当前宽松的金融形势发表意见，并质疑美联储当前倾向宽松背后的理由。值得注意的是，许多其他资产类别也都出现了类似的历史新高，因此当前“财富效应”并不仅限于加密货币。

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版：势不可挡

在市场弥漫著风险偏好情绪之际，花旗提出了一个有趣的问题：“钱”是从哪里来的？传统的 M 2 流动性指标仍保持在 2023 年的水平，而全球量化紧缩 (QT) 持续不减，央行资产负债表预计到年底将从 7, 600 亿美元的峰值缩减至约 5, 600 亿美元，因此，与过去十年的零利率政策/量化宽松时代不同，当前资产价格的上涨并不是由宽松的央行货币政策所推动的。

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版：势不可挡

此外，有些令人意外的是，尽管市场风险情绪高涨，货币市场帐户持有的现金量却突破了 6 万亿美元，创下历史新高，且每月的资产管理规模也持续上升。如果所有的一切都在上涨，包括股票、信贷、加密货币甚至是现金，那么新的资金究竟是从哪里来的？

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版：势不可挡

股票市场不是零和游戏，财富效应可以通过 GDP 产出或技术生产力（AI）的扩张来创造，但股票价格以如此快的速度上涨、且几乎没有回撤的情况仍属罕见。自 10 月低点以来，SPX 上涨了超过 20% （年化超过 40% ！），且实际波动率 (RV) 处于历史低点，这与 Bitcoin 从 4 万上涨至 6.3 万美元时显著增加的波动率形成了鲜明对比。

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版：势不可挡

正如花旗在其报告中所得出的结论，唯一可以看到流动性被撤出的地方是逆回购余额的下降（导致美联储开始讨论量化紧缩的放缓），以及美国政府不断扩大的财政赤字。然而，逆回购余额的下降（$ 1.5 万亿）和财政赤字的上升（$ 1.8 万亿）仍然远远落后于股票市值的上涨（$ 5.5 万亿），甚至还没考虑到信贷市场的表现以及加密货币市场戏剧性的增长（+$ 0.7 万亿）。目前，除了 EPS/经济前景/估值倍数扩张等自然增长因素之外，我们还没有满意的答案，无论如何，这确实是一次值得载入史册的历史性反弹，让我们尽情地享受这段时光。

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版：势不可挡

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