加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.02.02-02.09)： 2023资产表现回顾与2024的展望

Odaily星球日报Publicado a 2024-02-10Actualizado a 2024-02-10

Resumen

本周行情BTC与ETH整体上升5%，两者的成交量、未平仓量、历史波动率与隐含波动率都较周初上升，市场有明显的热度回暖。

2023 资产表现回顾

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.02.02-02.09)： 2023资产表现回顾与2024的展望

图片来源：https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/2023年財經回顧-圖看清環球各類資產表現-041856444.html? guccounter= 1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAANupdakYERm6uNaTKDlgFF-ZnzxX1mjnzBgaYJ1Q6a_WKsi0IpXbEKxIqxyJWKCrlLeYQOrPTEElgpNQK3PLrjGT5ufZAKT2jIdXOV_C6GDO8Fz5IwZMK3v4LbfoDHldLWNDSkcp-PAiC 2 Kw-WomVJyTiP--Fj-mwEQ 9 eVwb 24 yc

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.02.02-02.09)： 2023资产表现回顾与2024的展望

数据来源： https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/stock-to-flow-model/

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.02.02-02.09)： 2023资产表现回顾与2024的展望

2023 至今的各大资产价格表现

比特币与纳斯达克为 2023 最佳持有资产，其最差的是恒生指数与沪深 300 ，区块链加密资产的火爆行情卷土重来，各大金融机构发行比特币 ETF，美联储加息至 2023 年 7 月后停止，加上 2024 年比特币将减半，未来一年比特币将持续收到更多投资者青睐，而 Stock-to-Flow 模型预测 2026 年比特币价格将到达 44 万美元（仅供参考），市值到达 9 万亿美元，牛市预期将带来更多的投资机会。

更多参与加密资产的方式

  • 多主动接触身边的专业加密投资管理人

  • 学习了解区块链的社交媒体与投资机会 （x.com: @DerivativesCn）

  • 规划好投资配置的资金计划与执行

比特币减半距离今天（2024.02.09）还有约 71 天

减半倒计时：https://www.nicehash.com/countdown/btc-halving-2024-05-10-12-00?_360safeparam=1289146171

市场技术与情绪环境分析

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.02.02-02.09)： 2023资产表现回顾与2024的展望

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.02.02-02.09)： 2023资产表现回顾与2024的展望

情绪分析组成

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.02.02-02.09)： 2023资产表现回顾与2024的展望

技术指标

价格走势

过去一周 BTC 价格上涨 5.12% ，ETH 价格上涨 5% 。

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.02.02-02.09)： 2023资产表现回顾与2024的展望

上图是 BTC 过去一周的价格图

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.02.02-02.09)： 2023资产表现回顾与2024的展望

上图是 ETH 过去一周的价格图

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.02.02-02.09)： 2023资产表现回顾与2024的展望

表格显示过去一个周的价格变化率

价量分布图（支撑阻力）

过去一周 BTC 与 ETH 价格向上突破密集成交区。

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.02.02-02.09)： 2023资产表现回顾与2024的展望

上图是 BTC 过去一周的密集成交区分布图

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.02.02-02.09)： 2023资产表现回顾与2024的展望

上图是 ETH 过去一周的密集成交区分布图

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.02.02-02.09)： 2023资产表现回顾与2024的展望

表格显示 BTC 与 ETH 过去一周中每周的密集成交区间

成交量与未平仓量

过去一周 BTC 与 ETH 在后半周价格与交易量同步上升；未平仓量 BTC 与 ETH 都较周初上升。

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.02.02-02.09)： 2023资产表现回顾与2024的展望

上图最上方 BTC 的价格走势，中间是成交量、最下方是未平仓量、浅蓝色是 1 天均值，橘色是 7 天均值。其中 K 线的颜色代表当前的状态，绿色是价格上升有成交量支持，红色是在平仓，黄色是在缓慢累积仓位，黑色是拥挤状态。

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.02.02-02.09)： 2023资产表现回顾与2024的展望

上图最上方 ETH 的价格走势，中间是成交量、最下方是未平仓量、浅蓝色是 1 天均值，橘色是 7 天均值。其中 K 线的颜色代表当前的状态，绿色是价格上升有成交量支持，红色是在平仓，黄色是在缓慢累积仓位，黑色是拥挤状态。

历史波动率与隐含波动率

过去一周 BTC 与 ETH 历史波动率与隐含波动率同步上升。

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.02.02-02.09)： 2023资产表现回顾与2024的展望

黄色线为历史波动率，蓝色线为隐含波动率，红点是其 7 日平均

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.02.02-02.09)： 2023资产表现回顾与2024的展望

事件驱动

本周美国非农数据时间（北京时间 2024.02.02 21: 30），公布值( 353 K)比预测值( 187 K)好很多，公布后比特币价格小幅下降后回升，价格波动变化不大，随后在 2024.02.06 开始持续上升。

情绪指标

动量情绪

过去一周比特币/黄金/纳指/恒指/沪深 300 中，沪深 300 最强势，而表现最差为黄金。

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.02.02-02.09)： 2023资产表现回顾与2024的展望

上图为不同资产过去一周的走势

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.02.02-02.09)： 2023资产表现回顾与2024的展望

放贷利率_借贷情绪

过去一周 USD 放贷年化收益平均为 14.3% ，短期利率维持在 14% 左右。

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.02.02-02.09)： 2023资产表现回顾与2024的展望

黄色线为 USD 利率的最高价，蓝色线为最高价的 75% ，红色线为最高价的 75% 的 7 天平均值

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.02.02-02.09)： 2023资产表现回顾与2024的展望

表格显示 USD 利率过去不同持有天数的平均收益

资金费率_合约杠杆情绪

过去一周 BTC 资费平均年化收益为 9.4% ，合约杠杆情绪持续在低位。

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.02.02-02.09)： 2023资产表现回顾与2024的展望

蓝色线为币安上 BTC 的资金费率，红色线为其 7 日平均

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.02.02-02.09)： 2023资产表现回顾与2024的展望

表格显示 BTC 的资费过去不同持有天数的平均收益

市场相关性_一致性情绪

过去一周选中的 129 个币中相关性下降至 0.5 左右，不同品种间产生分歧的行情。

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.02.02-02.09)： 2023资产表现回顾与2024的展望

上图蓝色先为比特币价格，绿色线为['1000 floki', '1000 lunc', '1000 pepe', '1000 shib', '100 0x ec', '1inch', 'aave', 'ada', 'agix', 'algo', 'ankr', 'ant', 'ape', 'apt', 'arb', 'ar', 'astr', 'atom', 'audio', 'avax', 'axs', 'bal', 'band', 'bat', 'bch', 'bigtime', 'blur', 'bnb', 'btc', 'celo', 'cfx', 'chz', 'ckb', 'comp', 'crv', 'cvx', 'cyber', 'dash', 'dgb', 'doge', 'dot', 'dydx', 'egld', 'enj', 'ens', 'eos','etc', 'eth', 'fet', 'fil', 'flow', 'ftm', 'fxs', 'gala', 'gmt', 'gmx', 'grt', 'hbar', 'hot', 'icp', 'icx', 'imx', 'inj', 'iost', 'iotx', 'jasmy', 'kava', 'klay', 'ksm', 'ldo', 'link', 'loom', 'lpt', 'lqty', 'lrc', 'ltc', 'luna 2', 'magic', 'mana', 'matic', 'meme', 'mina', 'mkr', 'near', 'neo', 'ocean', 'one', 'ont', 'op', 'pendle', 'qnt', 'qtum', 'rndr', 'rose', 'rune', 'rvn', 'sand', 'sei', 'sfp', 'skl', 'snx', 'sol', 'ssv', 'stg', 'storj', 'stx', 'sui', 'sushi', 'sxp', 'theta', 'tia', 'trx', 't', 'uma', 'uni', 'vet', 'waves', 'wld', 'woo', 'xem', 'xlm', 'xmr', 'xrp', 'xtz', 'yfi', 'zec', 'zen', 'zil', 'zrx’]整体的相关性

市场宽度_整体情绪

过去一周选中的 129 个币，价格在 30 日均线上方的占比为 65% ，相对 BTC 价格在 30 日均线上方占比为 10% ，距离过去 30 天最低价大于 20% 的占比为 15% ，距离过去 30 天最高价小于 10% 的占比为 35% ，整体市场大部分都回升至 30 日均线上方，比特币价格强势，其他较强的币为'cfx', 'stx', 'pendle', 'ckb', 'link',  'imx', 'storj', 'tia', 'rose', 'sui', 'sol'。

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.02.02-02.09)： 2023资产表现回顾与2024的展望

上图为['1000 floki', '1000 lunc', '1000 pepe', '1000 shib', '100 0x ec', '1inch', 'aave', 'ada', 'agix', 'algo', 'ankr', 'ant', 'ape', 'apt', 'arb', 'ar', 'astr', 'atom', 'audio', 'avax', 'axs', 'bal', 'band', 'bat', 'bch', 'bigtime', 'blur', 'bnb', 'btc', 'celo', 'cfx', 'chz', 'ckb', 'comp', 'crv', 'cvx', 'cyber', 'dash', 'dgb', 'doge', 'dot', 'dydx', 'egld', 'enj', 'ens', 'eos','etc', 'eth', 'fet', 'fil', 'flow', 'ftm', 'fxs', 'gala', 'gmt', 'gmx', 'grt', 'hbar', 'hot', 'icp', 'icx', 'imx', 'inj', 'iost', 'iotx', 'jasmy', 'kava', 'klay', 'ksm', 'ldo', 'link', 'loom', 'lpt', 'lqty', 'lrc', 'ltc', 'luna 2', 'magic', 'mana', 'matic', 'meme', 'mina', 'mkr', 'near', 'neo', 'ocean', 'one', 'ont', 'op', 'pendle', 'qnt', 'qtum', 'rndr', 'rose', 'rune', 'rvn', 'sand', 'sei', 'sfp', 'skl', 'snx', 'sol', 'ssv', 'stg', 'storj', 'stx', 'sui', 'sushi', 'sxp', 'theta', 'tia', 'trx', 't', 'uma', 'uni', 'vet', 'waves', 'wld', 'woo', 'xem', 'xlm', 'xmr', 'xrp', 'xtz', 'yfi', 'zec', 'zen', 'zil', 'zrx’] 30 日的各宽度指标占比

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.02.02-02.09)： 2023资产表现回顾与2024的展望

总结

本周行情 BTC 与 ETH 整体上升 5% ，两者的成交量、未平仓量、历史波动率与隐含波动率都较周初上升，市场有明显的热度回暖；129 个币安宽度指标显示本周整体大部分都回升至 30 日均线上方，比特币价格强势，其他较强的币为'cfx', 'stx', 'pendle', 'ckb', 'link',  'imx', 'storj', 'tia', 'rose', 'sui', 'sol'；事件方面，本周美国非农数据时间（北京时间 2024.02.02 21: 30），公布值( 353 K)比预测值( 187 K)好很多，公布后比特币价格小幅下降后回升，价格波动变化不大，随后在 2024.02.06 开始持续上升。

Twitter: @DerivativesCN

Website: https://dcbot.ai/

Medium:https://medium.com/@DerivativesCN

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