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The new Fed chair held rates steady in his debut, then quietly inverted the entire outlook. The dot plot that projected cuts in March now projects hikes. For a crypto market that spent all year waitin

The new Fed chair held rates steady in his debut, then quietly inverted the entire outlook. The dot plot that projected cuts in March now projects hikes. For a crypto market that spent all year waiting on cheaper money, the ground just shifted.

On June 17, 2026, Kevin Warsh chaired his first meeting of the Federal Reserve and left interest rates exactly where they were, at 3.50% to 3.75%, the fourth consecutive hold and an outcome markets had fully expected. That decision changed nothing.

What Warsh did to the projections changed everything. Its updated dot plot, the chart showing where officials expect rates to go, flipped from projecting cuts to projecting hikes, and the forward guidance that markets had leaned on for a year was stripped out entirely.

Most major cryptocurrencies fell between 1% and 3% on the news, with Bitcoin sliding toward $64,000. The reason was not the rate decision, which was priced in, but the realization that the cheap-money future crypto had been pricing for the second half of 2026 had just evaporated.

For most of this year, a large part of the crypto bull case rested on a single assumption: that the Fed would cut rates in 2026, easing financial conditions, increasing liquidity, and lifting risk assets including crypto. That assumption is now in serious doubt, and the man who put it in doubt is, ironically, the crypto-friendly chair the industry welcomed.

This piece works through what Warsh actually did at his first meeting, why the dot-plot reversal matters more than the rate hold, why a hawkish Fed is a headwind for crypto, the inflation backdrop forcing the Fed’s hand, and what changes for a market that has to rebuild its thesis without the rate cuts it was counting on.

The rate-cut trade is dead, and understanding why is essential to understanding where crypto goes from here.



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Kevin Warsh just killed crypto’s rate-cut trade. H

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Microtransactions below 0.01 Bitcoin ($BTC) now account for roughly 80% of all daily transactions on the network, pushing transaction activity close to record highs despite weak price performance.

The surge has pushed CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin “Network Activity Index” into positive territory for the first time since 2024, according to a Thursday report by the blockchain data company.

Transactions below 0.01 $BTC represented about 44% of all daily Bitcoin transactions in 2023, but their share has nearly doubled since then, fueled largely by Ordinals, Runes and other/>

Bitcoin’s network activity is 7% below its all-time high recorded in September 2024. Source: CryptoQuant

The current congestion remains below the peaks seen during previous booms in Bitcoin inscriptions, when users embedded data such as images, text and token information directly on the blockchain.

Transaction backlogs surged in 2023 as Ordinals and BRC-20 activity competed with ordinary transfers for block space, while another spike emerged in late 2024 following the launch of the Runes protocol.

According to the report, Runes, Ordinals, BRC-20 tokens and data-timestamping services generate large volumes of low-value transactions, helping explain the sharp rise in microtransactions.

OP_RETURN, an opcode that allows data to be embedded onchain without creating spendable outputs, has climbed to near-record usage levels in 2026. It split the Bitcoin community in 2025 after Bitcoin Core developers removed a long-standing 80-byte relay limit. Critics argued the change would make it easier to use Bitcoin for non-financial data storage.

“The OP_RETURN opcode embeds up to 100,000 bytes of data onchain without creating spendable outputs, making it the standard mechanism for Bitcoin data-layer protocols,” Moreno wrote.

These protocols generate high volumes of dust-value t

Bitcoin activity nears record highs on microtransa

$XMR is down 2% and could record further losses in the near term The Fed’s hawkishness weighs on the broader crypto market. Privacy coins remain under pressure amid weak risk appetite Monero ($XMR) co

$XMR is down 2% and could record further losses in the near term

The Fed’s hawkishness weighs on the broader crypto market.

Privacy coins remain under pressure amid weak risk appetite

Monero ($XMR) continued its downward trajectory on Friday as bearish sentiment persisted across the cryptocurrency market.

$XMR slipped for a third consecutive session, remaining below the $330 level.

The broader crypto market came under renewed pressure following remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh during his first post-meeting press conference on Wednesday.

While the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left interest rates unchanged, in line with market expectations, investors reacted negatively to the central bank’s hawkish tone.

Policymakers emphasized their commitment to restoring inflation to the long-term 2% target, prioritizing price stability over near-term monetary easing.

Warsh’s comments suggested the Fed remains comfortable maintaining its current policy stance and is not yet considering interest-rate cuts. Market participants have even begun pricing in the possibility of another rate increase, with current expectations implying a 30% probability of a hike at an upcoming policy meeting.

Risk appetite weakened further as the Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to 15 on Thursday from 22 a day earlier, keeping the market firmly in the “Extreme Fear” zone. The decline highlights growing investor caution and reduced exposure to risk assets.

Monero price outlook: Correction continues below key resistance levels

Monero remains trapped below the Bollinger Bands middle line near $340 and all major Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs).

The 50-day EMA sits around $359, while the 100-day and 200-day EMAs cluster near $366, creating a significant resistance zone overhead.

Despite the ongoing correction, technical indicators show signs of improving momentum.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains positive, while the Money Flow Index (MFI)

Monero extends losses as Fed hawkishness weighs on

$OG is seeing a strong bounce from support and a powerful breakout candle, signaling a potential trend reversal with room for further upside 🚀 Entry: 2.62 - 2.65 Target: 2.75 Target: 2.90 Target: 3.10

$FF bleeding 10.3% from 0.07613 peak — breakdown below 0.06819 accelerating 📉 🔴 SHORT $FF Trade Setup: Entry Range: 0.0675 – 0.0685 SL: 0.0710 TP1: 0.0650 TP2: 0.0625 TP3: 0.0600 Price rejected off 0.

$ORCA is gearing up for a potential 2x pump, which could propel it to the top gainers list within hours 🔥 Entry: 2 Target: 4 🚀 Stop Loss: 1 ⚠️ The market structure is shifting in favor of $ORCA , with

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VeThor Token ( VTHO ) has been rallying as its supply dynamics tighten, pushing trading volume higher and signaling bullish sentiment. Harmony ( ONE ) continues to expand its cross chain capabilities,

World Cup Predictions: 100,000 USDT DailyBTC Prophet: 20-Day 380 Million HTX ChallengeHTXCommunity4thAnniversary Cardano price analysis: can ADA avoid a drop to $0.13? Cardano ($ADA) trades near $0.16

Cardano price analysis: can ADA avoid a drop to $0.13?

Cardano ($ADA) trades near $0.160 with weak momentum and fading buying pressure.The key support at $0.157 is critical, with $0.13 risk if it breaks.Oversold signals and the Leios testnet could trigger a short rebound soon.Cardano ($ADA) continues to trade under pressure, holding near the lower end of its recent range as both spot and derivatives markets reflect cautious sentiment.The token is priced at $0.1607, down 3.2% in the past 24 hours.







Cardano price analysis: can ADA avoid a drop to $0

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Bitcoin has stabilized after a sharp selloff that coincided with rising geopolitical tensions and a broad retreat in risk assets. The recovery has eased some of the market stress seen earlier this month, yet blockchain data suggests investors are still navigating conditions historically associated with bear markets.

On-chain data analytics firm Glassnode’s June 17 market report showed bitcoin rebounding after a sharp June decline that pushed prices to their lowest levels in months. Despite the recovery, the asset remains significantly below the True Market Mean, a key on-chain benchmark used to distinguish bull and bear market regimes.

“The True Market Mean tracks the average acquisition price of actively transacted coins, and historically serves as the threshold between bear and bull market regimes,” Glassnode explained. The firm estimates the metric at $77,200, well above the current market price.

Glassnode stated:

“Currently at $77.2k, it sits roughly 15% above spot near $65.6k, placing the market firmly in discount territory.”

Recent buyers remain under pressure even after the bounce. Short-Term Holder Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV), a metric that compares the current value of coins held by recent buyers with the price they paid for them, improved from 0.81 to 0.90 but remained below the 1.0 break-even threshold. The cohort’s estimated cost basis was near $72,600, leaving newer holders with unrealized losses of roughly 10%.

Profitability data also remained weak. The 30-day Realized Profit/Loss Ratio stood at 0.53, showing realized losses continued to outweigh gains.

Capital flows have improved but remain negative. Realized Cap fell 1.45% over 90 days to $1.07 trillion, though the seven-day change improved to negative 0.18%, showing outflows have slowed.

Glassnode detailed:

“The conditions required before a cred

Bitcoin Trades 15% Below Critical On-Chain Level A

HTXCommunity4thAnniversary

The largest cryptocurrencies remained under pressure for a fourth straight day, with bitcoin falling 2.5% in 24 hours to just below $62,400. It's not alone. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) has dropped 3.

The largest cryptocurrencies remained under pressure for a fourth straight day, with bitcoin falling 2.5% in 24 hours to just below $62,400.

It's not alone. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) has dropped 3.3%, with ether (ETH), $XRP ($XRP) and solana ($SOL) all weaker. The CoinDesk Smart Contract Platform Select Capped Index fell 4%, and the CoinDesk 80 and CoinDesk DeFi Select Index are following close behind.

Concerns about Strategy (MSTR), the Michael Saylor-led bitcoin treasury company, continue to dominate market sentiment, with particular focus on its dividend-paying preferred stock, STRC.

"Strategy, the largest listed $BTC holder, has watched its STRC preferred collapse below par, and the market is now openly pricing the tail that it has to sell coins to defend the structure," analysts at Marex said.

"Add five straight months of $BTC trading under its estimated $78k production cost, quietly forcing the weakest miners to capitulate, and you have two real sellers that were not in the frame a week ago," they added.

Derivatives Positioning

Bulls continue to bleed as the market wilts in the wake of Wednesday's hawkish Fed meeting. In the past 24 hours, more than $450 million in leveraged bets has been liquidated. As has been the case since the meeting, most are longs.

Open interest (OI) in bitcoin and ether futures is largely unchanged over the past 24 hours. $SOL futures OI increased to over 70 million tokens, just shy of the June 5 record 71.57 million. In other words, demand for leverage remains near all-time highs, pointing to potential for outsized volatility.

The same is true of $XRP, where futures OI is hovering at its highest since October last year.

As for cumulative volume delta, most of the biggest 25 tokens, except TRX and $LAB, show negative OI-adjusted CVD for the past 24 hours. That's a sign sellers are trading at market orders, leading the price action, as opposed to passive limit orders. It's been the same playbook since at least Wednesday.



Smart-contract and DeFi coins lead losses as bitco

Hyperliquid [HYPE] has ranked among the strongest-performing tokens over the past month, defying a broader crypto market that continues to underperform. On the 16th of June, the HYPE printed a fresh all-time high of $76.95, lifting its year-to-date return to roughly 179.45%. Whales have begun showing renewed interest in HYPE, resuming accumulation after a quieter stretch. World Cup Predictions: 100,000 USDT DailyBTC Prophet: 20-Day 380 Million HTX ChallengeHTXCommunity4thAnniversary

Hyperliquid [HYPE] has ranked among the strongest-performing tokens over the past month, defying a broader crypto market that continues to underperform.

On the 16th of June, the HYPE printed a fresh all-time high of $76.95, lifting its year-to-date return to roughly 179.45%. Whales have begun showing renewed interest in HYPE, resuming accumulation after a quieter stretch.



<div class="RichTextParagraph RichText" node-type="RichTextParagraph">
<span class="RichTextText" node-type="RichTextText">Hyperliquid [HYPE] has ranked among the strongest-performing tokens over the past month, defying a broader crypto market that continues to underperform.

On the 16th of June, the HYPE printed a fresh all-time high of $76.95, lifting its year-to-date return to roughly 179.45%. Whales have begun showing renewed interest in HYPE, resuming accumulation after a quieter stretch.

</span></div><div class="RichTextImage RichText" node-type="RichTextImage"><img src="https://d1x7dwosqaosdj.cloudfront.net/images/2026-06-19/108563b5-a040-4584-bc2c-ea6374161b1e.jpeg" width="768" height="432"></div><div class="RichTextParagraph RichText" node-type="RichTextParagraph">
<a class="RichTextArticle" node-type="RichTextArticle" href="holigeit://open/v1?url=ihuobiglobal://m.hbg.com/content/topicDetail?topicId=1313" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-id=1313>World Cup Predictions: 100,000 USDT Daily</a><a class="RichTextArticle" node-type="RichTextArticle" href="holigeit://open/v1?url=ihuobiglobal://m.hbg.com/content/topicDetail?topicId=942" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-id=942>BTC Prophet: 20-Day 380 Million HTX Challenge</a><a class="RichTextArticle" node-type="RichTextArticle" href="holigeit://open/v1?url=ihuobiglobal://m.hbg.com/content/topicDetail?topicId=1306" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-id=1306>HTXCommunity4thAnniversary</a></div>

Hyperliquid [HYPE] has ranked among the strongest-

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Hyperliquid [HYPE] has ranked among the strongest-

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