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06/17 05:04Alcista
Prediction Markets Have Already Decided
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Prediction Markets Have Already Decided the FOMC Outcome—Here’s How Crypto Could React
Crypto markets have already priced in a steady hand at the Federal Reserve. The first FOMC meeting led by new Chair Kevin Warsh is set to begin on June 16, and prediction markets on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi assign a 99% probability that rates will stay put, according to the Santiment update from Monday. That removes a major variable that has kept risk assets on edge for months.
The immediate market focus has shifted. No longer is the question whether the central bank touches borrowing costs, but rather what Warsh signals about the months ahead. Investors are now treating a pause as a baseline and scanning for hints that policymakers are willing to let conditions settle. For crypto, that shift matters. Stability, even at restrictive levels, can be a catalyst when it clears away one more layer of uncertainty.
A mild relief rally was already taking shape after the U.S. and Iran announced a deal over the weekend, offering a real-world geopolitical tailwind. The combination of a widely expected FOMC hold and a de-escalation overseas is giving risk assets a rare bit of breathing room. The risk for traders is that the meeting turns into a non-event, where the decision itself offers no fresh impulse. The upside is that a balanced tone from Warsh could be read as opening the door to improved liquidity conditions later in the year.
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