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Polymarket’s $354M Iran Dispute Exposes Prediction Markets’ Settlement Problem
Financial markets largely moved on after the United States and Iran announced an agreement over the weekend. On Polymarket, traders are still debating whether the event happened at all.
The prediction market platform has processed more than $345 million in volume on contracts tied to a US-Iran peace deal. While both countries announced an agreement, the market remains unresolved because users disagree on whether the developments satisfy the contract’s requirement for a “permanent peace deal.”
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