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Bitcoin’s recent price behavior has kept traders split between those expecting another leg down and those calling that a bottom is already in. That tension is now feeding different technical analyses,

Bitcoin’s recent price behavior has kept traders split between those expecting another leg down and those calling that a bottom is already in. That tension is now feeding different technical analyses, with one analyst arguing that the probability of a deeper crash has dropped significantly based on long-term signals.

Chance Of Bitcoin Making New Lows Is Very Small
Bitcoin has spent months testing the patience of its holders since its all-time high of $126,000 in 2025. According to crypto analyst Sykodelic, there is a compelling case that the drawdown is done and that the probability of Bitcoin revisiting new lows at this point has dropped massively.

Sykodelic’s rationale leans heavily on the behavior of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly candlestick timeframe chart. According to his analysis posted on X, Bitcoin has just printed a powerful bullish break on the weekly RSI, and what makes this particular reading extraordinary is not just where it bounced from but how low it got before doing so.


Source: Chart from Sykodelic on X
The weekly RSI has only fallen below 30 on three occasions in BTC’s history, with the most recent being Q1 2026. However, the RSI is now back into the normal zone, and it has broken above a descending trendline that touches lower highs. According to the analyst, this scenario means that the probabilities are now very slim for new lows of any kind.

The Bottom Signals Have Stacked Up
The RSI break did not arrive on its own. Sykodelic noted that multiple bottom indicators have converged simultaneously, a convergence he described as reaching a very high degree. According to him, about 12 important bottom indicators have fired, and Bitcoin is showing it here.

The broader data support his reading. Bitcoin exchange reserves have fallen to seven-year lows while whale wallets are now accumulating more than 

Bitcoin’s recent price behavior has kept traders s

The cryptocurrency market extended its decline in Q1 2026, transitioning into what CoinGecko describes as a sustained “crypto winter,” with total market capitalization falling 20.4% to $2.4 trillion. 

Crypto Winter Is Coming, Says CoinGecko

Bitcoin Up 2 Weeks: Beginning or End?HTX Community Spring Creation ContestMarket Rally! Claim Your AirdropMyanmar's newly elected President Min Aung Hlaing has approved the release of 4,335 prisoners,

Myanmar's newly elected President Min Aung Hlaing has approved the release of 4,335 prisoners, according to state broadcaster MRTV, marking the third amnesty issued in the country within six months. The announcement did not identify those receiving pardons by name.Among those to be freed are 179 foreign nationals, who will subsequently be deported. The amnesty also includes the commutation of death sentences to life imprisonment, life sentences reduced to 40 years, and term reductions of one-sixth for other inmates. Such pardons are a longstanding tradition in Myanmar, typically coinciding with Independence Day in January and the Burmese New Year in April.The move comes amid ongoing scrutiny of Myanmar's human rights record. The Assistance Association for Political Prisoners reports that over 30,000 individuals have been detained on political grounds since the military seized power in a 2021 coup. Among those still imprisoned is Nobel laureate and former State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi, who is serving a 27-year sentence on charges her supporters widely consider politically driven. The 80-year-old has not appeared in public since concluding her trials, and her exact location remains undisclosed. Her son Kim Aris confirmed in recent interviews that her health is deteriorating and that he has had limited contact with her.This latest amnesty follows two earlier releases — one in November covering approximately 8,665 individuals, and another in January freeing more than 6,000 prisoners to mark Independence Day.Min Aung Hlaing, 69, was formally elected president by parliament on April 3, consolidating his authority over a nation still gripped by civil war that has displaced more than 3.5 million people. At his inauguration, he pledged to prioritize peace, national stability, and reconciliation as the country navigates a deeply uncertain political landscape.Gol

Myanmar's newly elected President Min Aung Hlaing

Goldman Sachs filed a registration statement with the SEC on April 14 for the Goldman Sachs Bitcoin Premium Income ETF, the first bitcoin ETF news from the Wall Street giant that proposes directly iss

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On April 18, an Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesperson issued a statement regarding the situation during the ceasefire in Lebanon, stating that in the past 24 hours, IDF troops operating south of th

IDF Continues Strikes Against Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon, Accuses Violating Ceasefire Agreement

Bitcoin Up 2 Weeks: Beginning or End?HTX Community Spring Creation ContestMarket Rally! Claim Your AirdropThe tiny Himalayan kingdom of Bhutan has sold another batch of Bitcoin worth $18 million, acco

The tiny Himalayan kingdom of Bhutan has sold another batch of Bitcoin worth $18 million, according to on-chain intelligence firm Arkham. The country that was once celebrated as a crypto powerhouse and an emerging mining destination has now offloaded a large chunk of its mining assets, totaling $198 million to date. There is no official communication regarding why the country is swiftly liquidating its once-prized BTC reserve. It could be as simple as the country needing foreign exchange amid a global slump in tourism due to an unreliable flight schedule, or it could be reversing its policy of maintaining a crypto strategic reserve earned from its mining infrastructure. Arkham tweeted:Based on the Arkham reporting, the remote country sold around 240 BTC in two noteworthy badges recently. The amount was sent to multiple addresses used by the country’s handlers to liquidate their crypto. The move follows increasingly frequent BTC sales by the country, often in smaller batches of $5 million-$40 million. The country’s Druk Holdings, which manages its BTC, still holds around 3,524 BTC across its addresses, worth over $250 million. However, at this rate, the kingdom will run out of the crypto by September, Arkham estimates. The 770,000-strong nation with a GDP of $3 billion once held a massive 13,000 BTC in its wallets back in October 2024, worth around 40% of its entire GDP.The sparsely populated Buddhist nation has prospered under the “green mining” initiative, leveraging its cheap surplus hydroelectricity as a clean, economical alternative to other national grids. Bitcoin mining itself was a state-led initiative and was praised for creating jobs, generating revenue (including funds reportedly used to pay public wages), and positioning the kingdom as a pioneer in responsible crypto mining. However, things are changing rapidly as mining operations are reportedl

The tiny Himalayan kingdom of Bhutan has sold anot

Blockchain Forum 2026, MoscowMSTR Stock Forecast as Michael Saylor's Strategy Unrealized Gains Hit $1.37B Strategy shares moved higher on April 17 as Bitcoin climbed above $77,000 and briefly crossed 

MSTR Stock Forecast as Michael Saylor's Strategy Unrealized Gains Hit $1.37B
Strategy shares moved higher on April 17 as Bitcoin climbed above $77,000 and briefly crossed the $78,000 mark for the first time since the sharp February selloff. The rally put fresh focus on Michael Saylor’s company because its balance sheet remains closely tied to Bitcoin price moves. With Bitcoin trading above Strategy’s average purchase price of $75,577, the company returned to an unrealized profit position, with market commentary placing paper gains at about $1.37 billion.
MSTR also gained during the session as traders responded to the broader recovery in risk assets. At one point during market hours, the stock was up 13.83% and trading near $169.54. Separate market updates also showed the stock ahead by about 8% on the day. The move came as Bitcoin strength improved sentiment around companies with direct digital asset exposure.

Bitcoin Breakout Lifts Strategy Back Into Profit

Bitcoin’s move above $77,000 marked its strongest level since the correction that followed the February 5 selloff, when the asset fell close to $60,000. On April 17, Bitcoin traded around $78,209.10 in one market update, while another reading placed it near $77,286.74. That price recovery mattered for Strategy because the company’s large treasury position leaves its valuation highly sensitive to changes in Bitcoin.

Strategy now holds 780,897 BTC, according to the reports. At current price levels, those holdings were valued at about $60.817 billion. Since the company’s average Bitcoin purchase price stands at $75,577, the latest market move pushed the firm back above its cost basis. That change reversed part of the pressure seen in the first quarter, when Strategy reported about $14.5 billion in unrealized paper losses.

The stock’s technical picture also improved. MSTR moved above its 200-week moving average, a long-term trend indicator watched by market participants. A break a

MSTR Stock Forecast as Michael Saylor's Strategy U

Bitcoin Up 2 Weeks: Beginning or End?HTX Community Spring Creation ContestMarket Rally! Claim Your AirdropAsian currencies traded in a narrow range on Friday as investors remained cautious ahead of fu

Asian currencies traded in a narrow range on Friday as investors remained cautious ahead of further U.S.-Iran peace negotiations, while the Japanese yen slipped after the Bank of Japan's governor signaled little urgency to raise interest rates at its upcoming April meeting.The dollar index held steady during Asian trading hours, poised for a second consecutive week of losses. Easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East reduced safe-haven demand for the greenback, allowing most Asian currencies to post modest weekly gains on the back of improved risk appetite.U.S. President Donald Trump expressed optimism about a potential ceasefire agreement, stating that additional talks could take place within days. A separate U.S.-brokered, ten-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon further fueled hopes for broader regional stability, though ongoing U.S. sanctions on Iran and restricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz kept market sentiment in check.The yen remained under pressure after BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda delivered broadly dovish remarks at a press conference, sidestepping any firm commitment to hiking rates in April. Despite acknowledging Japan's low real interest rates and healthy corporate earnings, his tone disappointed investors who had hoped for stronger action to combat inflation driven by energy market disruptions. Analysts at OCBC warned that a failure to hike could push the USD/JPY pair above 160, potentially triggering intervention by Japan's Ministry of Finance.Elsewhere across Asia, the Australian dollar outperformed regional peers, rising over one percent for the week as traders increased bets on further Reserve Bank of Australia rate hikes. The Chinese yuan, Singapore dollar, and South Korean won were largely flat, while the Indian rupee edged lower despite some relief from declining oil prices, a key factor influencing its recent record l

Asian currencies traded in a narrow range on Frida

🚨 Trump says Iran has agreed to never close the Strait of Hormuz again. “It will no longer be used as a weapon against the World.” That’s 20% of global oil supply no longer sitting under Iran’s finger

Bitcoin Up 2 Weeks: Beginning or End?HTX Community Spring Creation Contest Blockchain Forum 2026, Moscow Ethereum Whales Are Sitting on a Breakeven Ceiling at $2,400 Price: Are They About to Kill the 

Ethereum Whales Are Sitting on a Breakeven Ceiling at $2,400 Price: Are They About to Kill the Rally?

Ethereum price is trading at $2,350–$2,351 after posting back-to-back daily gains of 4.76% and 6.32% in recent sessions, but the chart is telling a more complicated story.

Distribution pressure from whale cohorts sitting near their average cost basis is creating a ceiling that bulls haven’t cracked yet. One resistance level, in particular, is doing most of the heavy lifting right now.

According to Cryptoquant, key whale and retail cohorts carry average cost basis levels between $2,324 and $2,436, a band that neatly brackets current price action and creates natural sell pressure as holders look to exit near breakeven.

US spot ETH ETF inflows returned at $67.8 million on Wednesday after five straight days of net inflows per SoSoValue data, signaling slow but real institutional re-engagement.

Meanwhile, $111.6 million in liquidations hit over the last 48 hours, $70.8 million of that in longs, per Coinglass, a bruising reminder that leverage remains a liability at these levels.

Broader crypto sentiment has stabilized alongside equity markets, but ETH’s internal metrics suggest the recovery lacks the volume conviction needed to flip the next major resistance zone. The next 72 hours may determine whether this is a base-building phase or a fakeout.



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