Zcash: Analyzing why ZEC still risks a price drop toward $301

ambcryptoPublished on 2026-01-20Last updated on 2026-01-20

Abstract

After a market crash, Zcash (ZEC) dropped to $347, extending a week-long decline and risking a further fall toward $301. Despite strong bearish pressure and a drop below key moving averages, whale activity has increased, with significant buying volume and a notable withdrawal of 8,551 ZEC ($3.12 million) from Binance. Exchange data shows eight consecutive days of negative netflow, indicating $414 million in capital inflows, which typically reduces circulating supply and supports prices. However, bearish momentum remains strong, with the Stochastic RSI deep in oversold territory, suggesting selling pressure outweighs current whale demand. A reversal would require stronger accumulation to target resistance at $390.

After the market crash, Zcash [ZEC] dropped to levels last witnessed in early December, touching a low of $335.

In fact, ZEC has posted lower lows for five straight days, underscoring strong bearish pressure. As a result, the altcoin fell below its 20, 50, and 100 short‐term EMAs.

At press time, ZEC traded at $347, down 5.98%, extending a week-long downside movement.

With ZEC dropping below its short-term MAs, investors, especially whales, have jumped into the market buying the dip.

ZEC whales are buying the dip

Since Zcash was rejected at $449 a week ago, whale activity has fallen significantly. At press time, data from TradingView showed that Whale Buy Volume peaked at 152.4k.

While whale buy activity has reduced signaling, reduced risk appetite, and increased risk aversion, they have remained active.

At the same time, the Average Buy Volume hovered around 29k, holding this level for three consecutive days. This suggested that whales have remained relatively active despite the continued market weakness.

Notably, Onchain Lens observed that a newly created wallet withdrew 8,551 ZEC, worth $3.12 million from Binance, and could withdraw more.

The wallet now holds 12.5k ZEC, worth $4.54 million, according to Arkham data. Often, when whales continue to hold on and also add more positions during a downturn, it signals strong conviction.

Zcash records $414M in capital flow

Furthermore, exchange activities have echoed this accumulation phase. According to CoinGlass data, Zcash Spot Netflow has remained in the negative zone for 8 consecutive days.

At the time of writing, Spot Netflow was -$5.87 million, indicating increased capital inflow into the asset. In fact, over this period, investors have pumped approximately $414 million into the market.

Usually, increased outflows increases scaricty, thus reducing supply in circulation, which absorbs rising selling pressure. Often, such a market setup accelerates upward strength, leading to higher prices.

Is this demand enough?

While whales continued to accumulate as ZEC dropped, downside pressure has intensified, reflecting selling by other participants.

Moreover, the downward momentum remained elevated as evidenced by Zcash’s Stochastic RSI. This momentum indicator made a bearish crossover days ago and fell to 11.96, as of writing, further deepening the oversold zone.

When this indicator reaches such levels, it signals that bears have fully overpowered bulls, taking control of the market. As a result, whale demand has been insufficient to offset selling pressure.

With bearish momentum prevailing, downside risk remains high, and ZEC could fall toward $301. However, if whale demand strengthens, Zcash may stage another rally and target immediate resistance at $390.


Final Thoughts

  • Zcash whale purchased 8,551 ZEC, worth $3.12 million rising total holdings to 12.5k ZEC worth $4.54 million.
  • ZEC dropped 5.98%, extending its long week of downward pressure and risking a drop to $300.

Related Questions

QWhat was the price of ZEC at the time of writing and by what percentage did it drop?

AAt press time, ZEC traded at $347, down 5.98%.

QWhat key observation did Onchain Lens make regarding whale activity for Zcash?

AOnchain Lens observed that a newly created wallet withdrew 8,551 ZEC, worth $3.12 million from Binance.

QWhat does a negative Spot Netflow value indicate for an asset like Zcash?

AA negative Spot Netflow value indicates increased capital inflow into the asset, as it is being withdrawn from exchanges, which increases scarcity.

QWhat did the Stochastic RSI level of 11.96 signal for ZEC's market momentum?

AA Stochastic RSI level of 11.96 signaled that the asset was deep in the oversold zone, indicating that bears had fully overpowered bulls and taken control of the market.

QWhat are the two potential price targets mentioned for ZEC based on the prevailing market conditions?

AIf bearish momentum prevails, ZEC could fall toward $301. If whale demand strengthens, it may rally and target immediate resistance at $390.

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