War With Iran May Spark Federal Reserve Intervention, Arthur Hayes Says

bitcoinistPublished on 2026-03-02Last updated on 2026-03-02

Abstract

Crypto exchange BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes argues that U.S. military intervention in Iran could lead to Federal Reserve monetary easing, which may boost Bitcoin and crypto prices. Drawing on historical patterns since 1985, Hayes notes that past U.S. military actions in the Middle East—such as the Gulf War and post-9/11 operations—were often followed by Fed rate cuts or increased money supply. He suggests that if President Trump continues extensive military engagement in Iran, the Fed may loosen its tight monetary policy, driving capital into risk assets like Bitcoin. While current markets show limited panic, Hayes advises investors to wait for clear Fed action before making significant crypto moves.

Iran and the Middle East are on fire again. US and Israeli forces launched a series of airstrikes on Iran over the weekend, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei — a development that sent shockwaves through global markets and sparked fresh debate about what comes next for the US economy. And amid all the chaos, one prominent voice in the crypto world is already drawing a straight line from the bombing runs to Bitcoin prices.

Arthur Hayes Makes His Case

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of crypto exchange BitMEX, published a blog post this week arguing that US military action in the Middle East has a historical pattern — and that pattern tends to be good for crypto.

His reasoning goes back decades. According to Hayes, every sitting US president since 1985 has sent forces into the Middle East. Each time, the Federal Reserve followed by cutting interest rates or pumping more money into the financial system to help cover the costs.

A quote by Arthur Hayes on his blog post.

The Gulf War in 1990. The aftermath of the September 11 attacks in 2001. The troop surge in Afghanistan in 2009. Each episode, Hayes argues, came with a looser money supply.

His conclusion: if US President Donald Trump keeps spending heavily on what Hayes calls “Iranian nation-building,” the Fed may eventually feel pressure to ease up on its current tight monetary stance. That, in turn, could send money flowing into riskier assets — including Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

BTCUSD now trading at $65,919. Chart: TradingView

Iran-US War: Markets Stay Calm For Now

So far, the markets aren’t panicking. Stock futures dipped only slightly when trading opened Monday. Oil prices spiked at first, then pulled back, erasing nearly half the early gains. The S&P 500 shed less than 1%. Financial newsletter The Kobeissi Letter was blunt about it — this was no doomsday open.

Crypto social media told a different story in tone, if not in substance. Reports say mentions of “World War 3” spiked across platforms over the weekend, according to data from analytics firm Santiment.

But those numbers were still well below the levels recorded last June, when a prior round of Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear and military sites led to nearly two weeks of direct conflict between the two countries.

A Pattern Worth Watching

Hayes himself is urging caution for now. He admits there’s no way to know how long Trump will stay committed to a costly military campaign in Iran, or how much market pain the administration can stomach before pulling back.

His advice to crypto investors is to wait — specifically for a concrete Fed rate cut or money-printing signal before making big moves.

“The time to back up the truck and buy Bitcoin,” he wrote, is right after the Fed acts, not before.

Featured image from Getty Images, chart from TradingView

Related Questions

QAccording to Arthur Hayes, what is the historical pattern of the Federal Reserve's response to US military action in the Middle East?

AAccording to Arthur Hayes, the historical pattern is that the Federal Reserve has followed US military action in the Middle East by cutting interest rates or pumping more money into the financial system to help cover the costs.

QWhat specific event over the weekend is cited as the catalyst for the current market discussion?

AThe catalyst was a series of US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran over the weekend, which killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

QWhat is Arthur Hayes' main investment advice for crypto investors regarding the current situation?

AHis advice is to wait for a concrete Fed rate cut or money-printing signal before making big moves, and to buy Bitcoin right after the Fed acts, not before.

QHow did the markets initially react to the news of the airstrikes, according to The Kobeissi Letter?

AThe markets did not panic. Stock futures dipped only slightly, oil prices spiked but then pulled back erasing nearly half their gains, the S&P 500 was down less than 1%, and Bitcoin turned positive on the day.

QWhat does Arthur Hayes suggest could be the ultimate result of continued US spending on 'Iranian nation-building'?

AHe suggests that continued heavy spending could pressure the Federal Reserve to ease its tight monetary stance, which in turn could send money flowing into riskier assets like Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

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