Author: Micah Zimmerman
Compiled by: AididiaoJP, Foresight News
In the fourth quarter of 2025, Bitcoin experienced significant volatility. Particularly in December, prices fell nearly 9%, with volatility surging to its highest level since April 2025. However, VanEck noted in its mid-December "ChainCheck" report that market liquidity is improving and speculative leverage appears to be resetting, offering cautious optimism for long-term holders.
VanEck's digital asset analysts painted a complex picture in the report: although on-chain activity remains weak, the improving liquidity environment and the gradual unwinding of speculative leverage offer a glimmer of hope for long-term investors.
The report particularly highlighted the behavioral differences among various investor groups. Digital asset treasury companies continued to buy the dip, accumulating 42,000 BTC in December, marking the largest monthly increase since July and pushing their total holdings past the 1 million BTC milestone.
In contrast, investors in Bitcoin exchange-traded products reduced their holdings. This underscores a market shift from retail-driven speculation to corporate-level asset accumulation.
VanEck analysts also mentioned that some digital asset treasury companies are exploring new financing methods, such as raising funds by issuing preferred shares rather than common stock to purchase Bitcoin and maintain operations, reflecting a more strategic, long-term approach.
On-chain data also revealed a divergence between medium-term and long-term holders. Tokens held for 1 to 5 years showed significant movement, likely due to profit-taking or portfolio adjustments; while tokens held for over 5 years remained largely dormant.
VanEck interprets this as cyclical or short-term participants selling assets, while the most seasoned holders remain confident in Bitcoin's future.
Bitcoin Miners Face Challenges with Hashrate Decline
Miners, on the other hand, are facing difficulties. VanEck data shows the network hashrate dropped 4% in December, the largest decline since April 2024. This was due to production cuts in high-hashrate regions like Xinjiang amid regulatory pressure. Simultaneously, the break-even electricity cost for mainstream mining machines is decreasing, reflecting compressed profit margins for miners.
However, VanEck pointed out that historically, a declining hashrate can be a bullish contrarian indicator: following periods of sustained hashrate decline, Bitcoin has often experienced price increases within the subsequent 90 to 180 days.
VanEck's analysis is based on its proprietary GEO framework, which assesses Bitcoin's structural health from three dimensions: global liquidity, ecosystem leverage, and on-chain activity, rather than focusing solely on short-term price fluctuations.
From a GEO perspective, improving liquidity and accumulation by digital asset treasury companies somewhat offset weak signals like stagnant active address growth and declining transaction fees.
Macro factors also complicate Bitcoin's outlook. The U.S. dollar index has fallen to a near three-month low, boosting precious metal prices, but crypto assets like Bitcoin continue to face pressure.
Nonetheless, the evolution of the financial ecosystem could provide new support. Market observers note the rise of "everything exchanges" – platforms aiming to integrate stocks, cryptocurrencies, and prediction markets, utilizing AI-driven trading and settlement systems.
Just last week, Coinbase launched expanded features resembling an "everything exchange," adding stock trading, prediction markets, futures, and other products. VanEck believes that the rush of various institutions, from traditional brokers to crypto-native companies, into this arena could enhance Bitcoin's liquidity and utility value in the long run.
Bitcoin Price Volatility Remains Significant
Despite this, high volatility remains a hallmark of Bitcoin. Although Bitcoin has doubled over the past two years and nearly tripled over three years, the absence of the extreme surges and crashes seen in previous cycles has led to more rational market expectations. Future Bitcoin price movements might be more stable, with medium-term investors potentially facing smaller cyclical swings rather than the dramatic booms and busts of the past.
VanEck concluded that the overall market is currently in a corrective phase: mid-to-short-term speculative activity is receding, long-term holders are holding firm, and institutional accumulation continues to increase. Coupled with miner scaling back, converging volatility, and macroeconomic dynamics, the market is in a period of structural rebalancing.
As 2025 draws to a close, VanEck believes Bitcoin may be entering a consolidation phase, reflecting the market's overall maturation. This period of digestion could lay the groundwork for a strong rally in the first quarter of next year.
