Trading Moment: Can BTC Break Through $100K Again Amid Geopolitical Shocks? Can Copper and Aluminum Take Over from Gold and Silver?

marsbitPublished on 2026-01-05Last updated on 2026-01-05

Abstract

Amid significant geopolitical shocks in early 2026, including the U.S. military action in Venezuela and the arrest of President Maduro, Bitcoin demonstrates resilience, holding above $90,000 with a 5.5% year-to-date increase. Analysts suggest a high probability of BTC surpassing $100,000 in Q1, supported by strong ETF inflows. Ethereum remains stable around $3,150, with key resistance at $3,300. Precious metals like gold and silver see gains, while copper and aluminum are projected to outperform in 2026. Meme coins and AI-related tokens also rally, with PEPE surging over 70%. Regulatory attention arises due to insider trading suspicions in prediction markets linked to Venezuela event. Key upcoming events include Trump’s policy meeting and NVIDIA’s CES keynote.

Daily key market review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Overview

As the second quarter (Q2) of the 21st century's third decade begins, the macro landscape faced a major geopolitical shock early in 2026. The U.S. launched a military operation codenamed "Absolute Resolve" against Venezuela and arrested President Maduro, rapidly escalating geopolitical risks. Although markets feared supply disruptions, oil prices reacted relatively mildly given global oversupply and Venezuela's output accounting for only about 1% of global production. Gold returned to $4,400, while silver, platinum, and other precious metals rose over 3%.

Additionally, CITIC Securities released its 2026 outlook report, stating that 2026 is a year to "consolidate foundations and launch strategic counteroffenses" in the "15th Five-Year Plan." Driven by fiscal and monetary "dual easing" and efforts to boost domestic demand, GDP growth is expected to be around 5%. For capital markets, the A-share bull market is likely to continue but with slower gains. Commodities (copper, aluminum), under the resonance of "anti-fragility" and major trends, are expected to take over from 2025's standout performers, gold and silver, becoming the most eye-catching assets in global pricing for 2026. However, caution is advised regarding potential阶段性 corrections in the tech sector, with a focus on new energy, defense, and non-ferrous metals. For Hong Kong stocks, market activity is expected to further ignite under the impetus of "new four bulls" and the Fed's rate-cut cycle. Globally, although U.S. Treasury yields and inflation are expected to remain high, the Sino-U.S. rivalry is shifting from tariff confrontations to tech security contests, making the AI industry chain worth long-term tracking.

Bitcoin showed strong resilience at the start of 2026, rising for five consecutive days despite geopolitical turmoil, stabilizing above $90,000. ETFs recorded a net inflow of $471.3 million on the first trading day. On-chain analyst Murphy noted that the concentration of BTC筹码 within 5% of the spot price dropped from 14.9% to 14.5% with a slow price increase. URPD data showed effective support formed by 822,000 BTC at $87,000, with an expected reasonable fluctuation range between $92,000 and $104,000. Technically, Ted pointed out that the SMA200 is at $106,751, making a breakthrough above $100,000 in Q1 2026 highly probable, and there is a gap at $88,200 on CME. Crypto Auris warned that a drop below $87,000 could lead to a retreat to the $84,000 range. Although CryptoQuant's head of research, Julio Moreno, warned that based on moving averages, it might have entered a bear market with a bottom between $56,000 and $60,000, institutional sentiment is generally optimistic. Charles Schwab is bullish on 2026 performance, Ark Invest's Zach Pandl predicts new all-time highs in the first half, and a Forbes article indicated that 2026 price predictions are concentrated between $120,000 and $170,000. Traders Phyrex and Lennaert Snyder believe that as institutions return post-holiday, market liquidity will recover.

For Ethereum, ETFs recorded a net inflow of $174.5 million on the first day, with prices hovering around $3,150. Analyst Killa noted that ETH is in a stable zone, tending to consolidate or close higher in January and February. Daan Crypto Trades identified $3,300 as a key resistance level for a bullish reversal, with major support below at $2,600. Man of Bitcoin analyzed that ETH faces resistance in the $3,094 to $3,291 range and will follow Bitcoin's "orange route." Despite recovery expectations, some early optimistic predictions failed. Synthetix founder Kain Warwick lost a $50,000 bet because ETH did not reach $25,000 in 2025 and has lowered his 2026 target to $10,000. Previous $10,000 predictions by Tom Lee and Arthur Hayes were also not realized.

In the crypto market, the Venezuela situation caused剧烈 fluctuations and regulatory attention in the prediction market Polymarket. According to Lookonchain tracking, three mysterious wallets heavily bet on Maduro's ouster hours before his arrest, profiting over $630,000. One address invested only $34,000 and made nearly $410,000, raising insider trading concerns. In response, U.S. Representative Ritchie Torres plans to propose the "2026 Financial Prediction Market Public Integrity Act" to prohibit officials from using non-public information in such trades. Meanwhile, Bitcoin Treasuries data shows Venezuela has held Bitcoin since December 31, 2022, with a current balance of 240 BTC worth approximately $22.33 million. However, other analysts estimate it has about $60 billion in Bitcoin and USDT "shadow reserves." With the regime change, key figure Alex Saab, who holds the private keys, has become a focus.

The altcoin market is also active, with most altcoins rising alongside Bitcoin. PEPE has surged over 70% year-to-date, prompting whale James Wynn to recently open a 10x leveraged long position. Additionally, old Meme coins like BONK, BOME, FLOKI, WIF, and NEIRO followed suit, with Ponke and CZ's Dog rising over 70% in the past 24 hours.

Perhaps due to the annual "tech春晚" CES and speeches by tech leaders like Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang and AMD's Lisa Su, AI-related tokens also普遍上涨, with VIRTUAL, FET, and RENDER up over 10%.

2. Key Data (As of January 5, 13:00 HKT)

(Data sources: CoinAnk, Upbit, SoSoValue, CoinMarketCap)

Bitcoin: $92,454 (year-to-date +5.5%), daily spot trading volume $38.79 billion
Ethereum: $3,152 (year-to-date +6.2%), daily spot trading volume $17.45 billion
Fear & Greed Index: 26 (Fear)
Average GAS: BTC: 1.75 sat/vB, ETH: 0.02 Gwei
Market Dominance: BTC 58.7%, ETH 12.1%
Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: XRP, BTC, ETH, SOL, BONK
24-hour BTC Long/Short Ratio: 50.66% / 49.34%
Sector Performance: Most crypto sectors rose, Meme sector up 6.2%, AI sector up 5.7%
24-hour Liquidation Data: 76,848 people liquidated globally, total liquidation amount $210 million, including BTC $65.91 million, ETH $40.45 million, SOL $9.70 million

3. ETF Flows (As of January 2)

Bitcoin ETF: +$471 million, BlackRock's IBIT led with net inflow of $287 million
Ethereum ETF: +$174 million, Grayscale's ETHE led with net inflow of $53.6861 million
XRP ETF: +$13.59 million

4. Today's Outlook

Zama OG NFT claim portal opens on January 5
Trump to attend policy meeting on January 6 at 4:30 AM
Binance Alpha to list Brevis (BREV)
Hyperliquid co-founder: 1.2 million HYPE tokens to be allocated to team members after unlock on January 6
South Korean President Lee Jae-myung to visit China from January 4 to 7
U.S. court confirms Maduro to appear in New York court on January 6 at 1:00 Beijing time
CES media day, Nvidia CEO speech (January 6, 5:00)
Ethena (ENA) to unlock approximately 171 million tokens at 15:00 Beijing time on January 5, representing 2.37% of circulating supply, worth about $42 million
Hyperliquid (HYPE) to unlock approximately 12.46 million tokens at 08:00 Beijing time on January 6, representing 3.61% of circulating supply, worth about $313 million

Top 100 coins by market cap today, biggest gainers: Virtuals Protocol up 18%, ASI Alliance up 14.5%, Render up 13.7%, Pepe up 8.2%, SPX6900 up 6.4%.

5. Hot News

Data: HYPE, ENA, APT, and other tokens to see large unlocks, with HYPE unlock worth about $313 million
Weekly Preview | Solana生态 crypto derivatives exchange Ranger public sale; U.S. BLS to release December employment data
Venezuela holds 240 BTC, analysts estimate Bitcoin "shadow reserves" may exceed 600,000
Memecoin sector market cap up 23% weekly, trading volume surged 300%
Spot gold back above $4,400, silver breaks $76/oz
Infinex public sale only raised $491,000 so far, 90.17% remaining
U.S. lawmakers propose bill to ban officials from "insider trading" in prediction markets
Six contracts betting on "Maduro's ouster" in prediction market total $56.6 million
SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic plan IPOs in 2026, potentially one of history's most significant listing waves
Bitmine新增 stakes over 49,000 ETH, total stakes exceed 590,000 ETH
Digital RMB tops Baidu热搜: interest on活期 balances, fundamentally different from WeChat/Alipay wallets
James Wynn opens 10x leveraged PEPE long position
Ethereum treasury company Quantum Solutions discloses ETH holdings increased to ~5,418
Helium founder: to stop HNT token buybacks due to冷淡 market response
Whale holding ETH for four years swaps 14,145 ETH for 492 WBTC
Grayscale research head: four reasons may drive Bitcoin to new highs in H1 2026
Binance to add observation tags for ACA, D, DATA, and FLOW
Data: Gold rose ~65% in 2025 with over 50 new highs, silver rose ~150%

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