This week, the US economic calendar welcomes a dense release period, with the November Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, originally scheduled for 9:30 PM Beijing Time on Tuesday, undoubtedly becoming the focal point of market attention.
The release of this data has been unusually postponed to a Tuesday in mid-December due to the impact of the government shutdown, breaking the conventional practice of being released on the first Friday of each month.
Over the past month, the backlog of economic data due to the government shutdown is gradually being released, creating a situation this week where multiple important data sets will be unveiled consecutively: over the next three days, heavyweight reports on retail sales, inflation, and the labor market will be released, providing the market with crucial evidence to assess the state of the US economy.
Technical Background of the Unconventional Data Release
The uniqueness of this NFP report lies in the fact that it will essentially contain "two" sets of data—besides the new employment numbers and unemployment rate for November, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will also release the October non-farm payroll data concurrently.
As the statistical agency cannot retrospectively collect unemployment rate information for October, the October unemployment rate data will definitely be absent from this report. This "buy one, get half" release format stems from the previous federal government shutdown that lasted 43 days. This historically long shutdown prevented the BLS from conducting the collection and processing of October data according to the常规流程 (conventional process).
The market普遍预期 (widely expects) that November non-farm payrolls will increase by 50,000, with the unemployment rate预计 (expected) to remain at 4.4%.
However, the importance of this report lies not only in revealing the true state of the US labor market but also in providing key guidance for the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy path next year.
Data Expectations and Potential Volatility
In recent months, US employment data has shown significant volatility, swinging between declines and robust growth.
Economists expect Tuesday's report may continue this trend and appear particularly chaotic due to the后续影响 (knock-on effects) of the government shutdown.
Following stronger-than-expected job growth in September, some analysts predicted October employment could turn negative. This expectation primarily stems from approximately 144,000 federal workers accepting "delayed resignation plans" and leaving government positions after September 30th. Goldman Sachs economists estimate this factor will lead to a decrease of 70,000 in October employment and another 10,000 decrease in November. Despite the uncertainty, most economists still expect positive job growth, but the forecast range is unusually wide, spanning from a decrease of 20,000 to an increase of 127,000.
Nancy Vanden Houten, Chief US Economist at Oxford Economics, pointed out that healthcare and private education services sectors are likely to be the main drivers of job growth for the month.
Daniel Zhao, Chief Economist at Glassdoor, stated: "Government shutdowns don't happen often, so there's always some uncertainty when dealing with a large-scale statistical operation like the BLS. Caution should be exercised when interpreting this report, and one should be prepared for various possible outcomes." He believes the pace of job growth is most likely to remain steady, but同时强调 (simultaneously emphasized) that "there's a big variable on top of this."
Impact of Statistical Technical Factors on the Data
The BLS is known for its transparency and usually adds explanatory notes to its reports to account for major contextual or technical issues. Shruti Mishra, an economist at Bank of America, noted in a recent report that despite over 700,000 federal workers being furloughed during the shutdown, a scenario of sharply negative October data followed by a surge in November employment is not expected.
Mishra explained: "The establishment survey counts workers who were paid or expected to be paid for any part of the reference week.
Historical experience shows that the 2013 and 2019 government shutdowns had minimal impact on employment numbers." Daniel Zhao further pointed out that due to the extended timeframe for data submission and collection, the October and November employment data might actually be more complete, with less room for subsequent revisions. Although the October unemployment rate data is confirmed missing, economists expect the November unemployment rate to either remain at 4.4% or face upward pressure. In the three months leading up to September, the unemployment rate had climbed consecutively each month due to a subdued hiring environment and rising labor force participation. Meanwhile, recent layoff announcements have increased significantly, with the October layoff indicator reaching its highest level since early 2023. Some forecasters believe that the decline in federal government employment could push the November unemployment rate higher, potentially to 4.5% or even 4.6%.
Bloomberg Economics also noted that the absence of October unemployment data and the later-than-usual collection cycle for November data could trigger the "technical issues" mentioned by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, such as distortions in seasonal adjustments.
Report Details and Related Data Indicators
Beyond the two core indicators of overall employment numbers and the unemployment rate, economists believe the internal details of the establishment survey and household survey provide a more important perspective for understanding the performance of key sectors of the US economy. Dean Baker, Senior Economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research, emphasized that the breakdown of job growth by industry deserves close attention. He expects employment in the goods-producing sector may decline again, while healthcare and the restaurant industry are expected to continue leading job growth. Meanwhile, slowing wage growth is expected to put further pressure on consumer spending. Cory Stahle, an economist at Indeed Hiring Lab, pointed out that the labor force participation rate, the employment-population ratio, and the trajectory of unemployment data are crucial indicators for measuring how Americans perceive the job market. "Ultimately, if 100,000 jobs are created every month, but the unemployment rate is rising, or people are saying 'can't find any work, not planning to search anymore,' that will eventually come back to bite the labor market." At the same time on Tuesday, the US Commerce Department will also release October retail sales data. Excluding auto and gasoline sales, economists expect accelerating支出 (spending) to show robust consumer demand at the start of the fourth quarter. Unadjusted overall retail sales are预计 (expected) to grow by just 0.1%. Later this week, the BLS will also release the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. The October CPI report was canceled due to insufficient price data collection during the government shutdown. Due to the lack of a comparable October baseline, the statistical agency cannot release the month-over-month figures for the CPI and core measures; investors will need to focus on the year-over-year indicators for signals on the direction of inflation.
Bitcoin Price Forecast
As an asset highly sensitive to macroeconomic data, Bitcoin's price may react noticeably to this NFP data. If the NFP data is significantly stronger than expected, especially if the unemployment rate remains stable and wage growth is robust, it could strengthen the Fed's stance on maintaining high interest rates, thereby boosting the US Dollar Index and creating short-term pressure on non-yielding assets like Bitcoin.
Conversely, if employment data is weak, showing a significant cooling in the labor market, it could strengthen market expectations for an earlier Fed rate cut, potentially benefiting Bitcoin's price.
Given that the market has already priced in considerable rate cut expectations, any data that deviates significantly from forecasts could trigger剧烈波动 (sharp volatility) in Bitcoin's price. Technically, Bitcoin needs to hold the key support level at $85,000; a break below could lead to a further test of the $83,000-$84,000 region.
However, from a medium-to-long-term perspective, Bitcoin's fundamental factors, including the upcoming halving event and the持续提升 (continually increasing) rate of institutional adoption, still provide a solid foundation. Every pullback caused by macroeconomic data could potentially offer strategic entry opportunities for long-term investors.
