Toncoin climbs above December resistance at $1.7 – Time to buy it now?

ambcryptoPublished on 2026-01-03Last updated on 2026-01-03

Abstract

Toncoin (TON) has recently climbed above a key resistance level at $1.70, with a 2% daily and 12.5% weekly gain. This bullish momentum is attributed to Telegram's launch of a self-custodial wallet in the US and positive endorsement from Anthony Scaramucci of Skybridge Capital, who listed TON as a top pick for 2026. However, on-chain metrics suggest caution. Open Interest remains below its peak, mean coin age has stagnated, and the MVRV ratio, though rising, is still negative—indicating average losses for recent holders. Network growth has been flat, with larger holders selling and only smaller wallets accumulating. Despite a potential short-term bounce toward $1.89 or $2.01, TON's weak fundamentals and the broader altcoin underperformance in 2025 make it a less convincing buy.

Toncoin [TON] rallied by 2% over the last 24 hours, with the crypto up by 12.5% over the past week of trading. This bullish momentum was likely driven by Telegram’s move to launch its self-custodial wallet in the US.

Founder of investment firm Skybridge Capital, Anthony Scaramucci, also commented on the token recently. Speaking to Altcoin Daily, the Wall Street financier picked Toncoin as one of his top three picks for 2026.

Telegram network growth over time would drive more demand for TON, he posited, while also admitting to buying the token when it was priced at $7.50. TON was trading at $1.72, at the time of writing.

The imbalance on the 1-day timeframe from November served as a supply zone throughout December. It was breached at the start of the new year, sparking interest from traders and investors.

Should you buy TON too?

The on-chain metrics were not too encouraging for potential investors. The Open Interest has climbed since October, but it’s still well down from its peak in August. In fact, the mean coin age has not trended higher since October – A worrying sign.

This reflected a lack of network-wide accumulation. Instead, there were frequent sell-offs, driven by panic or profit-taking. The MVRV has been rising too, but still negative. It meant that TON holders of the past three months were, on average, facing minor losses.

Token Terminal data showed that the weekly TON active user count has been flat over the past year after a rapid spike towards the end of 2024.

Finally, the supply distribution revealed that only small Toncoin holders were buying and holding. The larger cohorts were selling, as evidenced by the falling number of wallets holding 1k or more TON.

Investors must also consider the altcoin market’s general underperformance in 2025. Except for the June-September window, Bitcoin has been a stronger asset, and ETFs and digital asset treasuries can make it harder for altcoins to seize public imagination than in previous cycles.

Overall, Toncoin does not show significant promise in its price action or on-chain metrics to convince investors to buy the token. It could see a short-term bounce from the $1.70 support to reach the retracement levels at $1.89 and $2.01 though.

Final Thoughts

  • TON’s recent momentum driven by Telegram’s move to launch its self-custodial wallet in the US.
  • Skybridge Capital’s founder also hyped up the altcoin recently.

Related Questions

QWhat recent development likely drove Toncoin's bullish momentum according to the article?

ATelegram's move to launch its self-custodial wallet in the US.

QWho is Anthony Scaramucci and what did he say about Toncoin?

AHe is the founder of investment firm Skybridge Capital, and he picked Toncoin as one of his top three crypto picks for 2026.

QWhat does the article identify as a worrying sign in the on-chain metrics for TON?

AThe mean coin age has not trended higher since October, reflecting a lack of network-wide accumulation and frequent sell-offs.

QWhat does the supply distribution data reveal about the behavior of different TON holder groups?

AOnly small Toncoin holders were buying and holding, while larger cohorts (wallets holding 1k or more TON) were selling.

QWhat is the overall conclusion of the article regarding investing in Toncoin?

AOverall, Toncoin does not show significant promise in its price action or on-chain metrics to convince investors to buy the token, though a short-term bounce from support is possible.

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