BlackRock's 2026 Investment Outlook highlights AI as the dominant force reshaping the global economy and market structure. The report emphasizes that AI-driven capital-intensive expansion is breaking through boundaries in finance, energy, and policy, making markets more reliant on a few key drivers. Investors must actively position themselves amid this structural shift, as traditional diversification strategies may no longer suffice.

Key themes include:
- **AI Investment Surge**: Corporate AI spending is expected to reach $5-8 trillion by 2030, supporting U.S. economic growth even amid a cooling labor market. However, massive upfront investments may require significant debt financing, potentially raising leverage and interest rates.
- **Concentrated Market Reliance**: U.S. equity returns are increasingly driven by AI, reducing the effectiveness of traditional diversification. Long-term U.S. Treasuries are viewed unfavorably due to upward pressure on yields from high financing demand.
- **Stablecoin Evolution**: Stablecoins are transitioning from crypto tools to bridges between digital and traditional finance, with growing use in payments and cross-border transactions. Regulatory developments, like the U.S. Genius Act, could intensify competition with bank deposits.
- **Strategic Allocation Preferences**: BlackRock maintains an overweight stance on U.S. stocks, particularly AI-themed equities, and Japanese stocks due to corporate reforms. It is underweight long-term developed market bonds, including Japanese and European sovereign debt. Emerging markets like India are favored for demographic advantages and strategic positioning.

The report advises investors to seek active, granular strategies—such as private markets and hedge funds—to navigate this new era of concentrated, AI-driven growth.

<div class="post-meta post__block post__block_post-meta" data-v-ae253174><div class="post-meta__author"><div class="post-meta__author-image"></div><span lang="en" data-testid="meta-author-name" class="post-meta__author-name text-sm inline-block text-text-invertedWeak"> Eva Xiang </span></div><div class="inline-block leading-5 align-middle"><time datetime="2025-12-08T09:21:29.000Z" data-gtm-locator="publication_date" data-testid="publication-date" class="text-xs sm:text-sm inline-block text-fg-updatedMuted"> 45 seconds ago </time></div></div><h1 class="post__title" data-v-ae253174> A Quick Look at BlackRock's 2026 Investment Guide: Betting on AI U.S. Stocks, Shorting Long-Term U.S. Bonds, AI Financing Wave May Push Up Interest Rates </h1><div class="post__block post__block_lead-text" data-v-ae253174><p itemprop="description" class="post__lead text-fg-default" data-v-ae253174> BlackRock's "2026 Investment Outlook" points out that AI is reshaping the global economy and market landscape, driving capital-intensive expansion and increasing market concentration. Investors need to actively position themselves while also paying attention to opportunities in U.S. stocks, AI themes, and emerging markets. </p></div><div class="post-cover post__block post__block_cover" data-v-ae253174><div class="post-cover__wrp overflow-hidden rounded-lg"><div class="lazy-image post-cover__image lazy-image_immediate"><span class="pending lazy-image__pending pending_dark"><span class="pending__runner"></span></span><picture><source media="(min-width: 1200px)" srcset="https://images.cointelegraph.com/cdn-cgi/image/format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=90,width=717/https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-09/019962de-bc1c-74e2-842c-087743b51c07, https://images.cointelegraph.com/cdn-cgi/image/format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=90,width=1434/https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-09/019962de-bc1c-74e2-842c-087743b51c07"><source media="(min-width: 992px)" srcset="https://images.cointelegraph.com/cdn-cgi/image/format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=90,width=587/https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-09/019962de-bc1c-74e2-842c-087743b51c07, https://images.cointelegraph.com/cdn-cgi/image/format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=90,width=1174/https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-09/019962de-bc1c-74e2-842c-087743b51c07"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcset="https://images.cointelegraph.com/cdn-cgi/image/format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=90,width=638/https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-09/019962de-bc1c-74e2-842c-087743b51c07, https://images.cointelegraph.com/cdn-cgi/image/format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=90,width=1276/https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-09/019962de-bc1c-74e2-842c-087743b51c07"><source media="(min-width: 480px)" srcset="https://images.cointelegraph.com/cdn-cgi/image/format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=90,width=747/https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-09/019962de-bc1c-74e2-842c-087743b51c07, https://images.cointelegraph.com/cdn-cgi/image/format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=90,width=1494/https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-09/019962de-bc1c-74e2-842c-087743b51c07"><div><img style="max-width:100%;overflow:hidden;" src="https://d1x7dwosqaosdj.cloudfront.net/images/2025-12/a163f8a65d744461a2ba9741b92de65e.jpg" alt=""></div></source></source></source></source></picture></div><span hidden="hidden" class="post-cover__badge"> Market Analysis </span></div></div><div class="post__content-wrapper with_margin" data-v-ae253174><div class="post-content relative post-content_margin no-small-text" data-v-ae253174><p data-ct-non-breakable="undefined">BlackRock's latest "2026 Investment Outlook" indicates that the world is undergoing a profound structural transformation driven by a few "super trends," with artificial intelligence (AI) becoming the core force reshaping the economy and market landscape. The capital-intensive expansion brought by AI is breaking through multiple boundaries such as finance, energy, and policy, making the market more reliant on a few key drivers. BlackRock believes that in this reshaping cycle, investors will inevitably face directional choices, while the importance of active investment has significantly increased.</p><p data-ct-non-breakable="undefined">This article will sort out the key veins of BlackRock's outlook report and present its core judgments on the 2026 market environment, providing a framework for a deeper understanding of the new investment cycle driven by AI.</p><h2><strong>AI Investment Wave Accelerates</strong></h2><p data-ct-non-breakable="undefined">The report points out that AI-related capital expenditures will continue to support U.S. economic growth in 2026. This year, the contribution of AI investment to U.S. economic growth has already reached three times the historical average. This capital-led growth momentum is expected to extend into next year, meaning that even if the labor market continues to cool, overall growth can remain resilient. In this state of "neither large-scale hiring nor large-scale layoffs," the Federal Reserve has room to continue小幅降息(small interest rate cuts) in 2026.</p><p data-ct-non-breakable="undefined">Estimates show that by 2030, global corporate capital expenditures on AI are expected to reach $5 to $8 trillion. However, capital expenditures in this area will far precede revenue realization, meaning AI builders need to borrow to bridge the "funding peak" period. The rise in private sector leverage will be superimposed on the high debt of the public sector, making the financial system more vulnerable to shocks, especially the financing risks brought by soaring interest rates. This will shape a distinctly different investment environment, presenting several key characteristics: First, higher leverage will boost credit issuance in public and private markets; Second, large-scale financing demand may keep capital costs at high levels for a long time; Third, before AI revenue is widely realized, the concentrated rise of the technology sector will force investors to make clearer directional judgments; Fourth, as AI benefits diffuse, active management and alpha opportunities will increase significantly. Overall, this means traditional asset allocation methods need to be re-examined.</p><h2><strong>Three Major Investment Themes</strong></h2><p><strong>The Era of AI's "Micro Driving Macro"</strong></p><p data-ct-non-breakable="undefined">Global AI infrastructure investment is being led by a few tech giants, and the scale of their investment already has significant macroeconomic influence.</p><p data-ct-non-breakable="undefined">Among them, the revenue share of the technology sector still has room to rise, especially in the context of current AI giants continuously penetrating and eroding original markets in ecosystem sectors like software. At the same time, the incremental revenue brought by AI will accelerate its diffusion to other industries and even the entire economic system, and entirely new AI-driven business models will continue to emerge. How future revenue is reallocated among different entities remains full of uncertainty, meaning the true winners are yet to be revealed.</p><p data-ct-non-breakable="undefined">BlackRock maintains its overweight stance on AI-themed U.S. stocks. But BlackRock also stated that large-scale investments related to AI may push the "overall economy" to benefit, but it does not guarantee that every company investing huge capital will receive corresponding returns.</p><p data-ct-non-breakable="undefined"><strong>Levering Up to Meet the AI Investment Wave</strong></p><p data-ct-non-breakable="undefined">The upfront capital requirements of AI are huge, forcing companies to increase leverage, but the good news is that the current debt levels of tech giants are still relatively low, so they have the ability and space to continue borrowing. It's just that AI investment is too large, and the government is unable to share the burden, leading to rising financing demand across society, putting upward pressure on interest rates and long-term government bond yields; therefore, investment strategies need to reduce holdings of long-term U.S. bonds.</p><p data-ct-non-breakable="undefined"><strong>The "Illusion" of Diversified Allocation</strong></p><p data-ct-non-breakable="undefined">The returns of the U.S. stock market are increasingly driven by a single force (especially AI), and market concentration is rising. Therefore, trying to "diversify risk" by reducing U.S. stocks or AI exposure is essentially a larger active bet, not diversification in the traditional sense. At the same time, traditional safe-haven assets like long-term U.S. bonds can no longer provide stable hedging effects, and gold is more tactical and difficult to hold for the long term. Overall, investors need to shift from passive diversification to more active and detailed positioning, achieving true risk management and source diversification through methods like private equity and hedge funds.</p><p data-ct-non-breakable="undefined"><strong>Stablecoins Accelerate "Breaking Out of the Circle"</strong></p><p data-ct-non-breakable="undefined">According to Coingecko data, as of November 27, the global stablecoin market value has exceeded $250 billion, and its applications in the payment field from加密交易与结算(crypto trading and settlement) to跨境转账(cross-border transfers) have become more widespread. BlackRock pointed out that as a digital currency pegged to legal currency and backed by reserve assets, stablecoins are evolving from tools originally only serving the crypto ecosystem into a "bridge" connecting digital finance and traditional finance.</p><p data-ct-non-breakable="undefined">The "Genius Act" passed this year became the first U.S. stablecoin payment regulatory framework, bringing issuers under supervision. This means stablecoins may compete with bank deposits or money market funds in the future; if the scale of competition is large enough, it may change the way banks provide credit to the real economy. But the final extent of this change remains highly uncertain. However, what is clearer is that stablecoins are accelerating their普及(popularization) and beginning to integrate into the mainstream payment system.</p><p data-ct-non-breakable="undefined">In emerging market countries, stablecoins may even be used for domestic payments as a tool to replace the local currency; although this can improve the accessibility of the U.S. dollar, if the use of the local currency decreases, it may also weaken the effectiveness of monetary policy, while to some extent supporting the status of the U.S. dollar.</p><p data-ct-non-breakable="undefined"><strong>BlackRock's Allocation Plan</strong></p><p data-ct-non-breakable="undefined">BlackRock stated in the report that it will continue to overweight U.S. stocks in asset allocation. AI-related opportunities have extended from the U.S. this year to broader markets such as China, the Taiwan region, and South Korea. In comparison, European profit growth still明显落后(lags明显 behind) the U.S., so it maintains a neutral stance on European stocks but is optimistic about the financial and industrial sectors within them.</p><p data-ct-non-breakable="undefined">Japanese stocks are a clearly preferred asset. Japan's healthy economic growth and more shareholder-friendly reforms are the key logic for持续看多(continued optimism). But BlackRock will underweight Japanese government bonds and broader developed market long-term bonds. In emerging markets, BlackRock is more青睐(favoring) hard currency bonds that have attractive coupons, limited issuance, and sovereign asset-liability tables that are healthy.</p><p data-ct-non-breakable="undefined">From a long-term perspective, India is one of the most attractive investment destinations in emerging markets. It is recommended to increase the allocation weight of Indian stocks in strategic portfolios over five years. BlackRock pointed out that India's biggest long-term advantage lies in its demographic structure: its huge and continuously expanding working-age population意味着(implies) stronger productivity and consumption growth potential. In addition, against the backdrop of加剧(intensifying) global geopolitical fragmentation, India, as a country of "multilateral alignment" and a "key connector," is also expected to continue to benefit.</p><p>Related recommendation: French banking giant BPCE to launch in-app cryptocurrency trading services</p></div><div class="post-disclaimer post__block post__block_disclaimer md:ms-[74px]" data-v-ae253174><div class="post-disclaimer__body"><p> This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making decisions. Although we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph is not responsible for any losses or damages arising from your reliance on this information. </p></div></div><div class="post__separator-line" data-v-ae253174></div><div class="tags-list post__block post__block_tags" data-v-ae253174><ul class="tags-list__list"><li class="tags-list__item"><span class="tags-list_hash-sign">#</span>Enterprise </li></ul></div><div class="adslot-after-article relative" style="--aspect-ratio:null;" data-v-ae253174></div><div class="post__separator-line" data-v-ae253174></div><div class="post__reactions reactions_3eiuR" data-v-ae253174><button class="reactions--button_NhAhG"><svg width="20" height="20" viewbox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M17.5 2.5V0.416667C17.5 0.186548 17.3134 0 17.0833 0H16.25C16.0199 0 15.8333 0.186548 15.8333 0.416667V2.5H13.75C13.5199 2.5 13.3333 2.68655 13.3333 2.91667V3.75C13.3333 3.98012 13.5199 4.16667 13.75 4.16667H15.8333V6.25C15.8333 6.48012 16.0199 6.66667 16.25 6.66667H17.0833C17.3134 6.66667 17.5 6.48012 17.5 6.25V4.16667H19.5833C19.8134 4.16667 20 3.98012 20 3.75V2.91667C20 2.68655 19.8134 2.5 19.5833 2.5H17.5Z" fill="#303D43"></path><path d="M9.58332 4.16667C6.13154 4.16667 3.33332 6.96489 3.33332 10.4167C3.33332 13.8684 6.13154 16.6667 9.58332 16.6667C13.0351 16.6667 15.8333 13.8684 15.8333 10.4167V8.75C15.8333 8.51988 16.0199 8.33333 16.25 8.33333H17.0833C17.3134 8.33333 17.5 8.51988 17.5 8.75V10.4167C17.5 14.7889 13.9556 18.3333 9.58332 18.3333C5.21107 18.3333 1.66666 14.7889 1.66666 10.4167C1.66666 6.04441 5.21107 2.5 9.58332 2.5H11.25C11.4801 2.5 11.6667 2.68655 11.6667 2.91667V3.75C11.6667 3.98012 11.4801 4.16667 11.25 4.16667H9.58332Z" fill="#303D43"></path><path d="M7.08332 10.4167C7.77368 10.4167 8.33332 9.85702 8.33332 9.16667C8.33332 8.47631 7.77368 7.91667 7.08332 7.91667C6.39297 7.91667 5.83332 8.47631 5.83332 9.16667C5.83332 9.85702 6.39297 10.4167 7.08332 10.4167Z" fill="#303D43"></path><path d="M13.3333 9.16667C13.3333 9.85702 12.7737 10.4167 12.0833 10.4167C11.393 10.4167 10.8333 9.85702 10.8333 9.16667C10.8333 8.47631 11.393 7.91667 12.0833 7.91667C12.7737 7.91667 13.3333 8.47631 13.3333 9.16667Z" fill="#303D43"></path><path d="M6.18102 12.5C5.86965 12.5 5.67271 12.8279 5.85392 13.0811C6.68534 14.2429 8.04608 15 9.58365 15C11.1212 15 12.482 14.2429 13.3134 13.0811C13.4946 12.8279 13.2976 12.5 12.9863 12.5H6.18102Z" fill="#303D43"></path></svg><span class="reactions--button-text_N11-8"> Add Emoji </span></button></div><div><img style="max-width:100%;overflow:hidden;" src="https://d1x7dwosqaosdj.cloudfront.net/images/2025-12/2505e403b2474b63a5f23f9bcce69193.jpg" alt=""></div></div>

A Quick Look at BlackRock's 2026 Investment Guide: Betting on AI U.S. Stocks, Shorting Long-Term U.S. Bonds, AI Financing Wave May Push Up Interest Rates

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