Global Shift Towards Easing, ETH May Have Taken the 'Best Offensive Position'
Global monetary policy is shifting towards easing, creating a favorable environment for risk assets. Despite a significant market decline in October, the long-term trend of crypto integration with traditional finance continues. A key narrative is emerging: U.S. political and economic elites are building a capital network connecting U.S. Treasury bonds, stablecoins, and Ethereum-based RWA (Real World Assets) protocols. This chain funnels dollar credit into assets ultimately settled on Ethereum and its Layer 2s.
Ethereum's recent Fusaka upgrade is a milestone, addressing the issue of L1 value capture diminished by L2 growth. By introducing a dynamic floor price for data blobs (EIP-7918), it ensures L2 activity consistently contributes to ETH burning. Post-upgrade, blob fees have become the primary source of ETH burn, potentially returning ETH to a deflationary state.
Technically, ETH appears strong. Leverage in the market is at historically low levels (~4%), and the Long BTC/Short ETH trade has been failing since November. ETH exchange reserves are at a multi-year low, suggesting a potential short squeeze. With anticipated friendly monetary policy from both the U.S. and China, ETH is positioned in a favorable accumulation zone.
比推12/12 06:09
