# Analysis Related Articles

HTX News Center provides the latest articles and in-depth analysis on "Analysis", covering market trends, project updates, tech developments, and regulatory policies in the crypto industry.

Opinion: Bitcoin Bear Market May Be 90% Complete

This analysis argues that Bitcoin's bear market may be 90% complete when measured against gold rather than the US dollar. Key technical indicators show that Bitcoin, priced in gold, broke below its 350-day moving average in August, signaling an earlier bear market start than commonly perceived. Historically, Bitcoin-gold bear cycles have seen declines of 76-86% over 350-400 days. The current cycle has lasted approximately 350 days with a 51% decline. Fibonacci retracement levels from previous cycles indicate strong support between 0.5 and 0.618, translating to a dollar price range of approximately $67,000 to $80,000. These multi-cycle technical overlaps suggest the current zone is an accumulation area, and the bear market may conclude sooner than expected.

深潮Yesterday 10:40

Opinion: Bitcoin Bear Market May Be 90% Complete

深潮Yesterday 10:40

What Do the Smart Money Buying AAVE at Lows Actually See?

Amidst market volatility, major players like a "whale" (recovering from a forced liquidation) and investment firm Multicoin Capital have been accumulating AAVE positions, suggesting "smart money" is building structural long-term holdings. Aave dominates the on-chain lending sector, capturing ~87% of Ethereum-based lending revenue. Key insights from an analysis include: Aave's revenue shows strong cyclicality but with a significantly higher baseline—even conservative bearish projections estimate monthly revenues (~$6M) above previous bull market highs. Its native stablecoin GHO has grown organically to over $400M, demonstrating sustainable demand. Aave's buyback program has executed consistently, repurchasing 0.8% of total supply in 8 months, adding deflationary pressure. The protocol is evolving from a lending platform into a foundational liquidity layer, with GHO enabling vertical integration and revenue diversification. Despite short-term volatility, Aave presents a compelling long-term infrastructure investment due to its mature revenue model, expanding utility, and deflationary tokenomics.

Odaily星球日报Yesterday 11:16

What Do the Smart Money Buying AAVE at Lows Actually See?

Odaily星球日报Yesterday 11:16

Don't Be Fooled by the Rebound! Bitcoin Could Retest Lows at Any Moment | Exclusive Analysis

**Bitcoin Weekly Analysis: Beware of a Potential Secondary Pullback** Last week, Bitcoin experienced significant volatility, forming a weekly doji candle with a slight gain of 0.03% and a wide 12.36% range. The price action perfectly validated the pre-defined key level of $89,000. Our analyst successfully executed two short-term trades based on this framework, resulting in a total gain of 6.93%. **Technical Outlook:** The weekly chart indicates Bitcoin is on the verge of entering a bear market, with momentum indicators pointing south. The daily chart shows a weakening bullish rebound within a broader bearish structure. **Price Projections for the Week (Dec 8-14):** The market is expected to remain range-bound. Key resistance levels are identified at $91,000, $94,000-$96,500, and $98,500-$100,000. Crucial support zones lie at $85,500-$87,500, $83,500, and around $80,000. **Trading Strategy:** A core medium-term short position (65% allocation) is maintained. For short-term swings (30% allocation), two scenarios are outlined: * **Scenario A (Rebound & Short):** Sell into strength if the price rallies to the $91,000-$94,200 or $98,500 resistance zones, with a stop-loss above $100,000. * **Scenario B (Dip & Buy):** Buy a potential bounce if the price drops to the $83,500-$80,000 support area, with a stop-loss below $80,000. **Macro Focus: The Fed's "Super Week":** This week's price action is heavily dependent on the Federal Reserve's policy decision. While a December rate cut is widely expected, the crucial factor for Bitcoin and risk assets will be the Fed's "dot plot" guidance for 2025 rate cuts. A hawkish dot plot (signaling fewer cuts) could trigger a pullback toward $85,000. A dovish signal (more cuts anticipated) could fuel a rebound above $90,000. Chairman Powell's commentary will be key to short-term volatility.

marsbit20h ago

Don't Be Fooled by the Rebound! Bitcoin Could Retest Lows at Any Moment | Exclusive Analysis

marsbit20h ago

Bitcoin 'Rally Only for Selling': Three Core Arguments of BTC Market Bears

Multiple analysts are warning that Bitcoin's recent rebound to around $93,000 (a 14.5% rise from recent lows) is a "bull trap" and signals a "rally for selling," not the start of a sustained bull run. They present three core bearish arguments. First, a "bear flag" pattern has been identified on BTC's charts. This technical formation, often a continuation signal in a downtrend, suggests a potential breakdown with a projected target near $77,100, which would represent a 16% decline from current levels. Second, comparisons are drawn to the 2021 market cycle. Analysts note the current structure is "almost identical," featuring a double-top pattern, a sharp drop to cycle support, and a deceptive rebound that formed a bull trap before a more severe crash. If this pattern repeats, BTC could plummet over 50% to the $40,000 range by early 2026. Third, Google Trends data shows searches for "Bitcoin bear market" have hit a five-year high, indicating peak public fear. Historically, such spikes in fear have preceded major sell-offs. One analyst warns BTC may反弹 to $97,000 to "trap" bullish investors before the true bear market begins. In conclusion, these analysts believe the current uptick is an opportunity to sell, forecasting significant further downside risk in the coming months.

cointelegraph_中文12h ago

Bitcoin 'Rally Only for Selling': Three Core Arguments of BTC Market Bears

cointelegraph_中文12h ago

Ripple's Bullish Sentiment Grows: What Will Trigger XRP's Breakthrough to $2.65?

Ripple (XRP) is experiencing a surge in bullish sentiment, with analysts predicting a potential breakout to $2.65. Over the past 24 hours, XRP’s price increased by 3%, climbing 15.5% from its November 21 low to reach $2.10. Several factors are driving this optimism, including growing institutional demand, shifting trader sentiment, and a bullish technical pattern. Institutional interest is rising, with XRP exchange-traded products (ETPs) attracting $245 million in inflows in the week ending December 5. According to CoinShares, year-to-date inflows have reached $3.1 billion, far surpassing 2024’s total of $608 million. Spot XRP ETFs in the U.S. have also seen consistent inflows, recording $10.23 million on Friday and extending a 15-day streak of net inflows. Cumulative inflows are nearing $900 million, with assets under management (AUM) hitting $861.3 million. Crypto investor Giannis Andreou noted that this accumulation often precedes a market shift. Trader sentiment is increasingly bullish. XRP’s daily funding rate turned positive at 0.0189%, indicating that most traders are opening long positions. On Binance, the long/short ratio shows 72% of accounts are bullish, though this introduces liquidation risks. Similarly, on Hyperliquid, 72% of XRP exposure is long, totaling $94.5 million, compared to $37.6 million in short positions. Technically, XRP has broken out of a symmetrical triangle pattern on the four-hour chart. A sustained close above the $2.15 trendline could trigger a 27% rally to $2.65. Analysts note that a daily close above $2.30 would confirm the breakout, potentially pushing prices toward $2.58, provided the $2.00 support level holds.

cointelegraph_中文12h ago

Ripple's Bullish Sentiment Grows: What Will Trigger XRP's Breakthrough to $2.65?

cointelegraph_中文12h ago

Bitcoin (BTC) Gains Buying Support, But Data Shows Professional Traders Are Skeptical of a Rally Above $92,000

Based on the provided article, here is a concise English summary: Bitcoin (BTC) is facing resistance after failing to break above $92,250, leading to a pullback. The article attributes this to macroeconomic uncertainty, including a delayed U.S. jobs report, a softening housing market, and a pause in spot Bitcoin ETF inflows. Data shows professional traders remain skeptical of a sustained rally above $92,000. The monthly futures premium (basis rate) has remained low, and the demand for protective put options is high, with market makers demanding a 13% premium to sell downside protection on Deribit. This indicates traders are willing to pay a significant cost to hedge against potential price declines. Furthermore, a bearish signal is emerging from China, where Tether (USDT) is trading at a discount to the official USD/CNY rate. This suggests strong selling pressure and capital flight from the crypto market, a pattern often seen during bearish phases. The article concludes that while the $90,000 level is providing support, a rapid return to $100,000 is unlikely. It hinges on improved visibility regarding the U.S. job market and real estate sector, which may take longer to materialize than the upcoming Fed policy decision.

cointelegraph_中文10h ago

Bitcoin (BTC) Gains Buying Support, But Data Shows Professional Traders Are Skeptical of a Rally Above $92,000

cointelegraph_中文10h ago

Crypto and Traditional Finance Sentiment Improves: Can Bitcoin (BTC) Traders Sweep Shorts Above $93,000?

The article discusses the recent improvement in sentiment among both retail crypto and traditional finance investors, aligning with Bitcoin's (BTC) price recovery towards the $90,000 mark. However, the $93,000 resistance zone is identified as a significant barrier due to a concentration of sell orders and short positions that are suppressing further upward movement. Analysts from Bernstein and VanEck suggest that Bitcoin has broken its traditional 4-year cycle pattern and is now in an extended bull market, with institutional buying absorbing retail panic selling. This view was reinforced after MicroStrategy announced a substantial purchase of 10,624 BTC at an average price of $90,615, its largest acquisition since July 2025. Despite the rebound from November's low of $80,612, BTC's price remains range-bound. Technical analysis points to key support levels between $73,700 and $76,500. Data from Hyblock and order books show that while smaller traders (0-100 BTC) are increasing participation, larger entities are selling into rallies near the $93,000 level. The liquidation heatmap indicates a cluster of short positions between $94,000 and $95,300, which could provide fuel for a potential rally toward $100,000 if bullish momentum intensifies.

cointelegraph_中文10h ago

Crypto and Traditional Finance Sentiment Improves: Can Bitcoin (BTC) Traders Sweep Shorts Above $93,000?

cointelegraph_中文10h ago

Pump and Dump? Bitcoin and Ethereum Long-Short Squeeze, Direction to Be Decided Tonight! Best Time to Layout Altcoins: ZEC, FARTCOIN, TON Back to $8?

The cryptocurrency market is currently experiencing high volatility with significant liquidations, as Bitcoin and Ethereum remain in key consolidation zones. Over $204 million was liquidated in 24 hours, affecting over 87,000 traders. Bitcoin has been trading sideways since November 21st around $80,600, with a tightening Bollinger Band suggesting an imminent breakout. A move above $92,600 could signal a rally toward $94,185 and $96,012, while a drop below $87,600 may lead to a decline below $80,600. Post-Fed rate decision volatility is expected, and a "sell the news" scenario is possible. Ethereum continues to trade within a large range between $4,146 and $3,011. Key resistance lies at $3,138 and $3,260, while support levels are $3,050, $2,980, and $2,900. A bounce from $3,050–$3,020 could present a buying opportunity. The article emphasizes that fundamentals drive long-term trends, while technicals reflect market sentiment. Messaging and news only cause short-term fluctuations. Examples like SUI and HYPE show steady growth, whereas TON struggles despite positive news due to underlying issues. Several risky tokens have recently been listed, often a sign of low liquidity and potential market manipulation. Traders should be cautious. Two altcoins are highlighted: ZEC, which saw a 20% pump and is now above $400—consider taking partial gains; and FARTCOIN, which presents a buying opportunity in the $0.36–0.38 range with a stop loss at $0.342, targeting $0.55 upon breaking $0.42.

金色财经9h ago

Pump and Dump? Bitcoin and Ethereum Long-Short Squeeze, Direction to Be Decided Tonight! Best Time to Layout Altcoins: ZEC, FARTCOIN, TON Back to $8?

金色财经9h ago

12.9 Today's Market: Why the Drop? BTC\SOL\ETH\BNB\RDNT\STABLE\TRUMP\Horse to Success\bibi Trading Advice

The cryptocurrency market experienced significant volatility, with $212 million in liquidations over 24 hours, including a single $2.14 million Bitcoin liquidation on Hyperliquid. Market sentiment remains nervous, with high turnover reflecting short-term bearishness, though long-term holders remain steady. The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting is a key focus, as interest rate decisions may influence market direction. Bitcoin’s support is near $88,100, with a potential dip to $85,200–85,900 offering a buying opportunity. Resistance is at $93,400. SOL may see support at $125.8 and $124, with potential accumulation near $120. ETH has supports at $2,955, $2,865, and $2,805, with resistance at $3,282. BNB’s key level is $898; holding above may lead to a bounce toward $939. Meme coins are highly risky, with many projects on BSC and SOL facing extreme volatility and potential scams. High-cap tokens like BIBI are relatively safer. Patience and strict stop-losses are advised. Specific tokens: - 马到成功 (Horse to Success): Accumulating near $2M market cap with strong community support. - ZEC: Showing strength, possibly entering a major upward trend if it holds key levels. - RDNT: Avoid chasing pumps—likely a temporary bounce. - TRUMP: Unlikely to rally this cycle due to locked supply; may perform in the next bull market if Trump remains politically relevant. - STABLE: Bearish due to high fully diluted valuation and lack of catalysts; consider shorting. Overall, December is to accumulate during consolidation while preserving capital for larger opportunities in Q1 2026.

金色财经7h ago

12.9 Today's Market: Why the Drop? BTC\SOL\ETH\BNB\RDNT\STABLE\TRUMP\Horse to Success\bibi Trading Advice

金色财经7h ago

Dogecoin Liquidation Exceeds $1 Billion! The Largest Liquidation Wave in History is Coming, How Long Can DOGE Retail Investors Hold On?

Dogecoin (DOGE) rebounded after hitting $0.140 against the US dollar, though it now faces resistance near $0.1450. Earlier, DOGE recovered from the $0.1350 level, mirroring movements in Bitcoin and Ethereum, and broke through resistance levels at $0.1380 and $0.140. It is currently trading above the 100-hour simple moving average, with a rising trendline forming support around $0.1405 on the hourly chart. If the upward momentum continues, DOGE may test the $0.1450 resistance, which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent decline from $0.1532 to $0.1351. Further resistance lies near $0.1490, with a potential push toward $0.1530. A sustained break above this level could open the path to $0.1620 and $0.170, with a key mid-term resistance at $0.1720. However, failure to break above $0.1450 may lead to a pullback. Initial support is at $0.1400 and the trendline, followed by $0.1380. The major support remains at $0.1350; a break below could trigger a decline toward $0.1265 or even $0.1250. Technical indicators show mixed signals: the hourly MACD is in the bullish zone but losing momentum, while the RSI remains below 50, indicating weak short-term momentum.

金色财经7h ago

Dogecoin Liquidation Exceeds $1 Billion! The Largest Liquidation Wave in History is Coming, How Long Can DOGE Retail Investors Hold On?

金色财经7h ago

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