Strategy Watch #3

insights.glassnodePublished on 2026-04-23Last updated on 2026-04-23

Abstract

Strategy Watch #3 provides institutional analysis of digital asset fund performance and allocation trends. Key findings show gradual stabilization in capital flows, with Bitcoin and ETH outflows improving from February lows but remaining negative. BTC ETF and DAT flows turned positive mid-March before moderating, while Ethereum flows followed more cautiously. DeFi TVL on Ethereum recovered significantly, nearing neutral by month-end. However, BTC CME basis yield turned negative, eliminating carry trade opportunities. The report also covers performance dispersion among strategies, a deep dive into quant trend following, on-chain vault yields, manager sentiment, and new institutional entries, including a $6B pension fund increasing crypto exposure.

The full report is freely available in PDF format.

Download PDF version

Welcome to Strategy Watch #3

Strategy Watch was built to address a clear demand for high-signal, impartial analysis of fund-level performance and allocation trends in digital assets.

Our objective is straightforward — to make Strategy Watch a must-read monthly publication for the digital asset investment community.

Funds and allocators that contribute data and insights help shape a more complete and valuable view of the landscape. If you have insights, data, or allocation updates worth sharing, we welcome your contribution.

Present your latest initiatives and updates to a curated audience of institutional allocators.

Share updates ↗

Inside the Latest Strategy Watch

The report is structured across six core sections, each focused on a distinct dimension of institutional activity in digital assets:

01 Institutional Flow Monitor | Early stabilization as BTC/ETH outflows improve and ETF demand recovers, but conviction in spot markets remains under pressure.

02 Fund and SMA Performance | Market-neutral strategies delivered consistent gains; directional performance remains highly dispersed.

03 Strategy Deep Dive: Quant Trend Following | What’s driving quant trend performance in a difficult environment for directional strategies? Hear directly from a fund manager.

04 On-chain Vault Performance | Are ETH curators underperforming ETH staking yield?

05 Manager Monitor | Find out how more than 300 managers are expecting the crypto market to perform over the next three months.

06 Allocation Updates | A $6B pension fund increases crypto exposure as new funds and institutional strategies continue to launch.

The Premier Digital Assets Allocator Platform. Learn more

Institutional Flow Monitor

BTC and ETH capital flows remained negative through March but continued to recover from February lows, while stablecoin inflows moderated alongside the broader stabilization.

Bitcoin and Ethereum continued to register net outflows through March, with capital flows closing the month at -$7.0B and -$1.6B respectively, a notable improvement from the -$9.6B and -$3.2B readings seen in mid-February. Stablecoin inflows also moderated to +$2.6B by month-end, easing from the +$6.2B peak earlier in March. The overall picture is one of gradual stabilization rather than recovery, with the acute phase of institutional de-risking losing momentum but conviction in spot assets remaining under pressure.

ETF & DAT Net Flows

BTC ETF and DAT flows swung decisively positive through March, with ETH channels following at a more measured pace before both eased into month-end.

Bitcoin ETF and DAT flows finally turned positive through March, reaching intra-month highs of +30.6k BTC and +46.8k BTC respectively mid-month before settling back to +17.6k BTC and +30.9k BTC by month-end. Ethereum flows mirrored the directional shift with less intensity, as ETF flows reached +46.6k ETH and DAT flows peaked at +295.9k ETH before easing to +261.9k ETH at close. The mid-month surge followed by minor pullback, suggests demand remains sensitive to wider market conditions, rather than a true sustained structural shift in institutional positioning.

DeFi TVL & Stablecoin Cap

DeFi TVL flows on Ethereum staged a significant recovery through March, reversing from peak February outflows to near-neutral territory by month-end.

After registering peak monthly outflows of $17.8B at end of February, Ethereum DeFi TVL flows recovered sharply through March, turning positive in mid-month and closing the period near neutral at -$0.75B. The pace of recovery was notable, with flows moving from double-digit outflows in early March to briefly positive readings around $4.9B by mid-month before settling back. While the trend shift is meaningful, a single month of stabilization is insufficient to declare a reversal of the broader contraction that has persisted since August 2025, and sustained inflows would be required to confirm a genuine return of allocator conviction in on-chain yield strategies.

CME Basis Yield

BTC CME basis yield turned negative through March, erasing the carry trade entirely, while ETH basis yield remained subdued but showed tentative signs of recovery by month-end.

Here we measure return available to institutions running cash-and-carry trades. After compressing through February to $17.3M/month, BTC basis yield crossed into negative territory mid-March and closed the month at -$3.9M, reflecting a full inversion of the carry premium. This signals futures are trading at a discount to spot, removing the economic rationale for market-neutral strategies entirely. ETH basis yield, already negative at end of February, oscillated in a narrow range before recovering modestly to +0.9M by month-end. Taken together, the carry environment for both assets remains structurally challenged, with meaningful recovery contingent on a sustained rebuilding of futures premium above spot.

Disclaimer: This report does not provide any investment advice. All data is provided for information and educational purposes only. No investment decision shall be based on the information provided here and you are solely responsible for your own investment decisions. Exchange balances presented are derived from Glassnode’s comprehensive database of address labels, which are amassed through both officially published exchange information and proprietary clustering algorithms. While we strive to ensure the utmost accuracy in representing exchange balances, it is important to note that these figures might not always encapsulate the entirety of an exchange’s reserves, particularly when exchanges refrain from disclosing their official addresses. We urge users to exercise caution and discretion when utilizing these metrics. Glassnode shall not be held responsible for any discrepancies or potential inaccuracies. Please read our Transparency Notice when using exchange data.

Those Who Rushed into SpaceX's Private Secondary Market Are Bewildered in the Greatest Wealth Creation Wave Ever

Investors are rushing into SpaceX’s private secondary market ahead of its historic IPO, but many are finding confusion instead of clarity. While early backers like Darsana Capital are poised for astronomical returns—turning a $600M bet into roughly $150B—other buyers face uncertainty about whether they actually own SpaceX shares at all. The frenzy stems from AI-driven FOMO, as soaring valuations for private companies like OpenAI and SpaceX create intense demand for pre-IPO exposure. This has fueled a booming but opaque secondary market, where special purpose vehicles (SPVs) layer investments, adding fees and obscuring ownership. Some investors are three or four layers removed from the actual stock, unable to verify their holdings. With companies staying private longer—SpaceX for 24 years—secondary trading has grown complex and risky. Platforms have faced fraud, bankruptcy, and regulatory scrutiny. Now, firms like Anthropic and OpenAI are publicly rejecting unauthorized transfers, warning that shares sold through certain platforms may be invalid. SpaceX’s IPO filing in June will finally reveal the official shareholder list, resolving these uncertainties. Until then, buying into SpaceX through secondary channels remains a high-stakes gamble—a blind box in a market overflowing with capital and complexity.

marsbit11m ago

Those Who Rushed into SpaceX's Private Secondary Market Are Bewildered in the Greatest Wealth Creation Wave Ever

marsbit11m ago

Warsh's First Conundrum: Rate Cuts, Inflation, and a Fractured Fed

Walsh's First Dilemma: Rate Cuts, Inflation, and a Divided Fed Kevin Warsh officially assumed the Fed Chairmanship on May 15th, inheriting a central bank deeply divided over inflation. Contrary to market expectations of a dovish stance due to his appointment by President Trump, Warsh's historical record shows early and consistent hawkish concerns about inflation. The Fed he leads is fractured, with three FOMC members recently dissenting against even hinting at future rate cuts. The immediate challenge is surging inflation. While the Iran-related oil shock is a temporary factor, core CPI and services inflation are accelerating, showing signs of becoming entrenched—echoing the Fed's 2022 "transitory" misstep. Warsh faces the task of building consensus within a committee where several members believe policy may not be restrictive enough, especially if the neutral interest rate (r-star) is higher than currently estimated. Politically, Warsh is caught between Trump's desire for rate cuts and the economic reality of persistent price pressures. Any move perceived as bowing to political pressure could undermine Fed independence. Market implications are significant. Long-term Treasury yields (e.g., 30-year at 5.19%) could rise further, especially if the June FOMC statement hints at possible tightening. Tech stocks face continued valuation pressure from higher rates. The key variable is progress in Iran negotiations; a breakthrough before the June meeting could temporarily ease oil-driven inflation, but stubborn services inflation would remain. All eyes are on Warsh's first post-FOMC press conference on June 17th. His wording on inflation and policy will reveal how much the market has mispriced his stance and the Fed's likely path forward.

marsbit20m ago

Warsh's First Conundrum: Rate Cuts, Inflation, and a Fractured Fed

marsbit20m ago

Decoding the Latest Holdings of "The Son of Wall Street Version" Leopold Aschenbrenner: Why Did the AI Bull King Turn to Short Nvidia?

Leopold Aschenbrenner, a renowned AI investor and former OpenAI researcher, has filed a 13F revealing a dramatic portfolio shift. He has taken a massive $8 billion short position against the entire semiconductor supply chain, including companies like NVIDIA, AMD, Broadcom, and ASML. This marks the first time in his fund's history that short exposure exceeds long exposure. His core thesis is that the bottleneck for AI investment is shifting from chip *design* to *infrastructure*, specifically power and memory. Accordingly, his long positions heavily target these areas. He maintains holdings in data center/Neocloud firms like CoreWeave, holds positions in power solutions like Bloom Energy, and has initiated new stakes in bitcoin mining companies such as CleanSpark and Riot Platforms due to their pre-existing grid access and power capacity. Aschenbrenner also increased his long bets on memory, exemplified by SanDisk, as AI models drive demand for NAND flash storage. Despite the aggressive short on semis, analysts suggest he may not be structurally bearish but rather views the chip trade as over-crowded, while seeing higher returns in infrastructure plays. Key risks identified include underestimating NVIDIA's entrenched CUDA ecosystem moat and the timing of his shorts.

marsbit31m ago

Decoding the Latest Holdings of "The Son of Wall Street Version" Leopold Aschenbrenner: Why Did the AI Bull King Turn to Short Nvidia?

marsbit31m ago

Harvard and Others Exit, Six Core Talents Depart in a Month: What's Happening to Ethereum?

Ethereum faces significant internal and external pressures, marked by a wave of high-profile departures from its core development team and a loss of confidence from major institutional investors. Within four months, at least seven key figures—including researchers, protocol leads, and a former executive director—have left the Ethereum Foundation. This exodus, partly triggered by controversy over a new "mission statement" requiring employee sign-off, risks derailing critical roadmap upgrades like PeerDAS and Verkle trees, and has already contributed to delays in the planned Glamsterdam upgrade. Compounding the internal instability, major institutions are reducing their exposure. Goldman Sachs slashed its iShares Ethereum Trust holdings by approximately 70%, and Harvard's endowment fund completely exited its $87 million Ethereum ETF position. Concurrently, the Ethereum Foundation itself has been unstaking and selling ETH for "treasury rebalancing," further unsettling the market. These challenges emerge as Ethereum's competitive dominance erodes. Its share of the total DeFi market has fallen to around 54%, with rivals like Solana and Base gaining ground. In fee revenue, it was recently outpaced by newer chains like Hyperliquid. Furthermore, a trend of institutions exploring proprietary or hybrid blockchains (exemplified by Circle's Arc) threatens Ethereum's position as the premier settlement layer for institutional assets. While founder Vitalik Buterin's vision for Ethereum as a secure, decentralized "technical sanctuary" and "world computer" remains clear, its realization is threatened by the concurrent loss of execution capability, institutional patience, and market share during a critical competitive phase.

链捕手1h ago

Harvard and Others Exit, Six Core Talents Depart in a Month: What's Happening to Ethereum?

链捕手1h ago

IOSG | After the Halving of Developer Count: Crypto Isn't Dead, It's Just Handing Over Talent to AI

IOSG Report: Crypto's Developer Exodus Masks a "Talent Deleveraging" and Migration to AI The number of monthly active crypto developers on GitHub has roughly halved from its 2022 peak to around 23,000. This decline is not a sign of industry collapse but a "talent deleveraging." The exodus consists largely of newcomers who entered during the bull market, while the cohort of established developers (2+ years of experience) has grown to a record high, now contributing about 70% of the code. These core builders are consolidating in ecosystems with real users and activity, like Bitcoin and Solana. The crypto industry has forged a unique skill set: building operational, trusted systems from scratch in environments with no external authority, near-zero tolerance for error, and missing rules. This involves creating trust through pure code/mechanisms and making judgments under profound technical and economic uncertainty. This capability is finding new, high-value applications in the AI era, which faces structurally similar problems: trust in opaque autonomous systems, a lack of governance frameworks, and coordination among self-interested AI agents. Key migration patterns include: 1. **Direct Hardware/Infrastructure Translation:** Projects like CoreWeave pivoted from GPU mining to AI compute supply. 2. **Mechanism Design & Trust Engineering:** Crypto's experience in decentralized coordination and incentive design (e.g., via tokenomics, staking/slashing) is being applied to critical AI challenges: * **Compute Aggregation & Verification:** Solving trust and efficiency problems in decentralized GPU networks (e.g., Hyperbolic). * **AI Agent Governance:** Using cryptoeconomic mechanisms to align the behavior of multiple autonomous AI agents (e.g., EigenLayer's approach). * **Autonomous Agent Payments:** Leveraging stablecoins and programmable money for fast, permissionless micro-transactions between AI agents (e.g., x402 protocol). The builder's role is evolving from "writing smart contracts" to "designing trust mechanisms for autonomous AI systems." This convergence is reflected in hiring trends at major firms and significant capital allocation from top venture funds like Paradigm and a16z into the crypto-AI intersection. While regional approaches differ—with the US focusing more on foundational protocol innovation and Asia on application-layer integration—the core thesis remains: the systemic skills honed in crypto's trustless environments are becoming a scarce and critical asset for scaling AI.

marsbit1h ago

IOSG | After the Halving of Developer Count: Crypto Isn't Dead, It's Just Handing Over Talent to AI