Standard Chartered suggests that Bitcoin could reach a new all-time high of $126,000 by the end of the year, with the asset's recovery potentially accelerating after October 6th. This statement was made by the bank's Head of Digital Assets Research, Geoff Kendrick.
According to the analyst, the current rally is primarily driven by short liquidations, and inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have also begun to recover. In his view, the low level of open interest leaves room for new investors to return as the price rises—sharp sell-offs due to an overheated market are unlikely in this scenario.
Kendrick noted that for the first time this year, there is a risk that his annual Bitcoin forecast of $100,000 may prove too conservative. Previously, the bank held a much more cautious stance.
How Standard Chartered's Forecast Has Evolved
In a report dated February 12th, the bank lowered its year-end Bitcoin target from $150,000 to $100,000, and its Ethereum target from $7,500 to $4,000. At that time, Kendrick expected Bitcoin to first drop to around $50,000 and Ethereum to $1,400 before a recovery would commence toward the end of the year. Essentially, the analyst's base scenario envisioned a deep market correction followed by a rebound, rather than steady growth without pullbacks.
The current price dynamics diverge from this scenario: instead of the anticipated decline, Bitcoin is showing confident growth, which prompted Kendrick to revise his risk assessment towards a higher forecast.
Other Analysts Also See a Reversal
Other market participants see similar signals. Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten expects a Bitcoin bottom to form in October. Meanwhile, 10x Research founder Markus Thielen stated that a close above $63,000 in August could confirm the formation of a bear market bottom.
Both forecasts align with Kendrick's logic: the market may have found a bottom earlier than the conservative estimates from the beginning of the year suggested.
This week, Bitcoin rose above $79,000, gaining 25% for the week, as previously reported by Hash Telegraph.
AI Perspective
From the standpoint of macroeconomic linkages, the current rally should be considered not only in light of short liquidations but also within the monetary context. History shows that even amid positive ETF dynamics, Bitcoin sharply lost up to 8% during the March inflation spike when the Fed kept rates unchanged, as earlier reported by Hash Telegraph. Such a precedent indicates that any scenario involving $126,000 remains hostage to future CPI releases and interest rate decisions.
A similar pattern occurred in April when a diplomatic easing triggered a cascade of short liquidations worth $530 million and a record weekly inflow into ETFs, as recorded by Hash Telegraph—then the sharp rise was followed by consolidation, not a sustained trend. Will the October scenario be an exception, or will the market again face a quick pullback following a news-driven impulse?
