Polymarket Revival: The Mainstreaming of Crypto Prediction Markets and Future Prospects
Polymarket's resurgence in 2025, returning to the U.S. market and integrating mainstream wallets and media, with institutional capital backing, marks a new phase for event-driven trading and market sentiment pricing.
Polymarket's actions in 2025 have drawn significant attention. Through compliant re-entry into the U.S. market, integration with wallets and mainstream platforms, and the injection of institutional capital, Polymarket is steadily moving from the crypto fringe towards the mainstream. The logic and potential impact behind this are worth serious attention.
Polymarket has clearly advanced its re-launch in the U.S. market, acquiring regulated derivative trading and clearing entities to pave the way for legal and compliant operations. Simultaneously, the backing of large institutional capital provides crucial support for platform financing and valuation increases. Polymarket has also integrated with mainstream wallets like MetaMask, allowing users to participate in prediction market trading without leaving their wallets. Mainstream financial information platforms have begun displaying prediction market data, further enhancing market visibility.
In the past, many viewed Polymarket as a form of gambling or a crypto casino, but now it more closely resembles an information pricing mechanism within financial markets. The participation of a large number of users and institutions makes prediction markets more representative and liquid in pricing the probability of future events; participation barriers have lowered, and participant types have become more varied. Prediction market data is starting to be adopted by traditional financial media and data platforms, revealing its potential.
However, Polymarket's return to the mainstream also faces challenges. Prediction markets are not always accurate; some studies show their predictive accuracy is limited in certain situations. The platform's neutrality and business model are also questioned; for instance, hiring internal traders to act as market makers for itself could weaken its credibility as a neutral market. Event markets inherently face information asymmetry and insider risks; when participants obtain information early, prediction markets can be abused, harming the interests of ordinary users. Compliant operations also face uncertainties in regulation, taxation, and disclosure.
Polymarket's revival and transformation are significant not just for the crypto market but for the broader financial system. By converting public expectations into tradable probabilities, prediction markets could complement traditional analysis and polling, providing real-time, decentralized signals of sentiment and expectations in areas like macroeconomics, policy, technology, and geopolitics. As traditional financial institutions invest resources to promote compliance and structured product implementation, DeFi is no longer just an alternative asset pool but gradually gaining infrastructure and legitimacy similar to traditional finance. The application of prediction markets is also expanding, potentially covering not just crypto assets but also stocks, macroeconomics, sports events, and tech product launches, making the crypto ecosystem more tightly connected to the real world.
If Polymarket and similar platforms continue towards compliance, stable operation, and adoption by more mainstream financial services, they could become the next generation of market infrastructure—an event-driven financial tool on par with stocks, bonds, and options. In the coming years, platform neutrality, prediction accuracy, regulatory environment, participant structure, and the maturity of related financial products will directly impact their development.
In summary, Polymarket's revival and transformation are not just an internal buzz within the crypto circle but more likely signify prediction markets' move from fringe experiments to mainstream financial infrastructure. Behind this transformation lies deep thinking about reshaping information pricing mechanisms and financial infrastructure. It brings not only new trading methods but also potentially restructures how investors view and participate in pricing future events and assets.
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