Oscars Preview: Who Are the Big Players in Prediction Markets Betting On?

Odaily星球日报Published on 2026-03-12Last updated on 2026-03-12

Abstract

"Oscar Predictions 2026: Where Are the Prediction Market Whales Placing Their Bets?" As the 98th Academy Awards approach on March 15, 2026, the crypto prediction market Polymarket is offering its own forecasts on the winners, with significant trading volume indicating where large bettors, or "whales," are placing their capital. In the high-stakes Best Picture category, "One Battle After Another" is the current frontrunner with a 76% probability, followed by "Sinners" at 20%. Analysis of top wallets shows one address holds a substantial "YES" position on this outcome with an 89.7% win rate. The Best Actor race has seen a major shift; Timothée Chalamet was previously the favorite with an 80% probability, but Michael B. Jordan has now surged ahead to a 57% chance. Notably, the top wallet betting "YES" on Jordan has a negative historical profit, while a major "NO" bettor on Chalamet has profited over $2.82 million. Several categories appear to be near-certain "sure bets" or "savings plans." Paul Thomas Anderson is the overwhelming favorite for Best Director with a 91% probability. For Best Actress, Jessie Buckley leads with a 97% chance. "Sinners" also dominates Best Original Screenplay with a 96% probability. Other closely watched categories include Best Supporting Actress, where Amy Madigan leads at 52%, and Best Supporting Actor, where Sean Penn is the favorite at 73%. "One Battle After Another" also leads in Best Cinematography with a 73% probability.

Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Asher (@Asher_ 0210)

The 98th Academy Awards ceremony will be held on March 15, 2026. As the awards night approaches, discussions about "who will win" are heating up rapidly.

Beyond predictions from traditional media, film critics, and fans, crypto prediction markets are also providing their own set of answers. So, in the eyes of prediction market participants, who is most likely to take home the major awards at this year's Oscars?

Next, Odaily Planet Daily will梳理 (sort through) the winning probability situations for each award based on the latest market data from Polymarket. At the same time, we will analyze the betting situations of the top addresses holding positions in related events to find potential trading opportunities.

Best Picture Award: "One Battle After Another" Temporarily Ranks First with a 76% Real-Time Probability

Polymarket Corresponding Event: Oscars 2026: Best Picture Winner, trading volume over $29 million;

Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-picture-winner.

Currently, for the Best Picture award, "One Battle After Another" temporarily ranks first with a 75% real-time probability, while "Sinners" ranks second with a probability of 20%.

Address Holdings Analysis

Top "YES" Holder for 《One Battle After Another》: Address: 0x2a019dc0089ea8c6edbbafc8a7cc9ba77b4b6397. This address has a high win rate of 89.7%. The average purchase price for the "YES" shares on 《One Battle After Another》 was 54.8 cents.

Address Holding Only the Single Event "One Battle After Another": Address: 0x8f49c70ce8e353c0531d39f5448f0ba5f561bf8d. This address bought nearly 10,000 "YES" shares at an average price of 74 cents 5 days ago. It currently holds only the single event bet for "One Battle After Another" winning Best Picture.

Best Actor Award: Michael B. Jordan Temporarily Ranks First with a 57% Real-Time Probability

Polymarket Corresponding Event: Oscars 2026: Best Actor Winner, trading volume nearly $7 million;

Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-actor-winner.

Currently, for the Best Actor award, Michael B. Jordan temporarily ranks first with a 57% real-time probability, while Timothée Chalamet ranks second with a probability of 34%.

It is worth mentioning that before the 7th of this month, Timothée Chalamet's probability had consistently been in first place, once reaching as high as 80%.

Address Holdings Analysis

Top "YES" Holder for Michael B. Jordan: Address: 0x4cc25002e1b5d09c1dab0d26dbe2333648829271. This address has a win rate of only 48%, with a historical profit/loss of negative $200,000.

Top "NO" Holder for Michael B. Jordan: Address: 0xafbacaeeda63f31202759eff7f8126e49adfe61b. This address has a win rate of 53%, with a historical profit/loss of $172,000.

Top "YES" Holder for Timothée Chalamet: Address: 0x4cc25002e1b5d09c1dab0d26dbe2333648829271, which is also the top "YES" holder for Michael B. Jordan. This shows the address is betting that either Michael B. Jordan or Timothée Chalamet will win the Best Actor award.

Top "NO" Holder for Timothée Chalamet: Address: 0x9d84ce0306f8551e02efef1680475fc0f1dc1344. This address has a high win rate of 63%, with a historical profit/loss of $2.82 million.

Best Director Award: Paul Thomas Anderson Temporarily Ranks First with a 91% Real-Time Probability

Polymarket Corresponding Event: Oscars 2026: Best Director Winner, trading volume nearly $5 million;

Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-director-winner.

Currently, for the Best Director award, Paul Thomas Anderson temporarily ranks first with a 94% real-time probability. Judging by the probability, this award seems almost certain, potentially a "sure bet" or "savings account" scenario.

Address Holdings Analysis

Top "YES" Holder for Paul Thomas Anderson: Address: 0x998154d8eb4ba7c4b34b10d76b9742d922d7dec4. This address has a high win rate of 83.6%. The average purchase price for the "YES" shares on Paul Thomas Anderson was 93 cents.

Best Actress Award: Jessie Buckley Temporarily Ranks First with a 97% Real-Time Probability

Polymarket Corresponding Event: Oscars 2026: Best Actress Winner, trading volume over $1.5 million;

Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-actress-winner.

Currently, for the Best Actress award, Jessie Buckley temporarily ranks first with a 97% real-time probability. Judging by the probability, this award also seems almost certain, potentially a "sure bet" or "savings account" scenario.

Other Popular Awards

Additionally, awards with high discussion heat include:

一、Best Supporting Actress Award (Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-supporting-actress-winner), Amy Madigan temporarily ranks first with a 52% real-time probability; Teyana Taylor ranks second with a probability of 26%; Wunmi Mosaku ranks third with a probability of 21%.

二、Best Supporting Actor Award (Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-supporting-actor-winner), Sean Penn temporarily ranks first with a 73% real-time probability; Stellan Skarsgård ranks second with a probability of 19%; Delroy Lindo ranks third with a probability of 7%.

三、Best Cinematography Award (Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-cinematography-winner), "One Battle After Another" temporarily ranks first with a 73% real-time probability; "Sinners" ranks second with a probability of 20%.

四、Best Original Screenplay Award (Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-original-screenplay-winner), "Sinners" temporarily ranks first with a 96% real-time probability, potentially a "sure bet" or "savings account" scenario.

Related Questions

QAccording to the Polymarket prediction data, which film is currently the frontrunner to win the Best Picture award at the 2026 Oscars and what is its probability?

AAccording to the Polymarket prediction data, 'One Battle After Another' is the current frontrunner to win the Best Picture award with a real-time probability of 76%.

QWhich actor is currently favored to win the Best Actor award, and what significant shift in the odds is mentioned?

AMichael B. Jordan is currently favored to win the Best Actor award with a 57% probability. A significant shift mentioned is that before the 7th of the month, Timothée Chalamet was the frontrunner with a probability that was once as high as 80%.

QWhich two categories are described as having outcomes with almost no suspense and being potential 'sure bets' or 'savings plans'?

AThe Best Director award, where Paul Thomas Anderson has a 94% probability, and the Best Actress award, where Jessie Buckley has a 97% probability, are described as having almost no suspense and being potential 'sure bets'.

QWhat is the trading volume for the Polymarket event predicting the Best Picture winner?

AThe trading volume for the Polymarket event 'Oscars 2026: Best Picture Winner' is over $29 million.

QFor the Best Supporting Actor award, who are the top three contenders and their respective probabilities?

AFor the Best Supporting Actor award, the top three contenders are Sean Penn in first place with a 73% probability, Stellan Skarsgård in second with 19%, and Delroy Lindo in third with 7%.

Related Reads

KOL's Perspective: Why Is SOL Set to Rise from This Point?

**Summary: Why SOL is Positioned for Growth at This Level** The article argues that SOL is poised for an upward move from its current price point, citing several key factors. Primarily, SOL has just broken out of a 4-month consolidation phase. This breakout signals a return of risk appetite to the broader crypto market, as SOL is seen as a key indicator of overall crypto health. The token's ownership has reportedly shifted from short-term traders and tourists to long-term accumulators, leading to low volume. Any meaningful increase in trading activity could thus trigger significant upward momentum. Fundamental strengths include strong institutional adoption, integration with DeFi and RWAs (Real-World Assets), and the potential benefits from the Clarity Act. Despite its high volatility—having dropped 70% from its all-time high but still up 12x from its bear market low—SOL is highlighted as one of the few tokens from the last cycle to reach new highs. It boasts a robust ecosystem of applications, users, and protocols. Future catalysts include the expected influx of AI developers following the Miami Accelerate conference, which focused on AI on Solana. Furthermore, Solana is positioned as the premier chain for memecoin activity, a trend expected to continue and drive network usage and fees. The article concludes that recent price action reflects a healthy transfer to long-term holders, setting the stage for growth.

marsbit42m ago

KOL's Perspective: Why Is SOL Set to Rise from This Point?

marsbit42m ago

Those Pre-Bitcoin PoW Protocols Have Recently Been Reimplemented

This article details a recent surge in replicating pre-Bitcoin Proof-of-Work (PoW) protocols, specifically focusing on Hal Finney's 2004 RPOW (Reusable Proofs of Work). Within five days in May 2026, multiple independent builders in the Bitcoin/cypherpunk community launched projects inspired by this early electronic cash proposal. The initiative began with Fred Krueger's `rpow2.com`, a centralized but auditable system that replaced RPOW's original IBM 4758 hardware with Ed25519 signatures. Initially a faithful replica, it later adopted Bitcoin-like features (21M supply cap, difficulty adjustment) and a controversial 5.24% founder allocation. This sparked rapid forks, including `rpow4.com` which incorporated full Bitcoin parameters, a prediction market (`rpowmarket.com`), and a DEX (`rpow2swap.com`). Concurrently, Mike In Space created a prototype of Wei Dai's 1998 b-money proposal (`b-money.replit.app`), pushing the historical exploration even further back. The article contrasts these centralized, server-dependent experiments with Bitcoin's core innovation of decentralized, trustless consensus. It also highlights a parallel development: the `HASH` project on Ethereum, which uses smart contract hooks to enable a purely fair-launch, browser-mineable PoW token with 0% allocations to team or VCs. The collective activity is framed as a meme-driven, educational exploration of cypherpunk history rather than a serious financial movement, with all projects heavily disclaiming any investment value.

marsbit47m ago

Those Pre-Bitcoin PoW Protocols Have Recently Been Reimplemented

marsbit47m ago

South Korean Exchanges 'Battle' Regulators, Challenging the Boundaries of Enforcement and Legislation

South Korea's cryptocurrency industry is engaged in a rare, direct confrontation with regulators. The Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU), the primary anti-money laundering (AML) watchdog, has recently imposed heavy penalties on major exchanges like Upbit and Bithumb for alleged violations involving unregistered overseas VASPs and AML procedures. However, exchanges are now actively challenging these actions in court and through industry associations. In a significant shift, the Seoul Administrative Court ruled in favor of Upbit's operator, Dunamu, overturning part of an FIU-ordered business suspension. The court found the FIU's penalty criteria and justification insufficiently clear. Similarly, the court suspended the enforcement of a six-month business suspension against Bithumb pending a final ruling, citing potential irreversible harm to the exchange. Beyond legal battles, the industry is contesting proposed legislative amendments. The Digital Asset eXchange Alliance (DAXA) strongly opposes a draft rule that would mandate Suspicious Transaction Reports (STRs) for all crypto transfers over 10 million KRW (~$6,800). DAXA argues this "poison pill" clause violates legal principles and would overwhelm the STR system, increasing reports from 63,000 to an estimated 5.45 million annually for major exchanges, thereby crippling effective AML monitoring. This conflict highlights a structural tension in South Korea's crypto governance: comprehensive digital asset laws are still developing, while regulators rely heavily on AML enforcement. The industry's move from passive compliance to active legal and legislative challenges signifies a new phase, pressing for clearer rules and more proportionate enforcement. While short-term disputes may intensify, this clash could ultimately lead to a more mature and sustainable regulatory framework for South Korea's vibrant crypto market.

marsbit1h ago

South Korean Exchanges 'Battle' Regulators, Challenging the Boundaries of Enforcement and Legislation

marsbit1h ago

Earnings Report, CLARITY Bill, and Warsh's Arrival: CRCL Faces Three Major Tests This Week

Circle (CRCL) faces three major tests this week that will significantly impact its stock price and valuation. First, on May 11, it will release its Q1 2026 earnings. Key metrics to watch are overall revenue and EPS, the proportion of revenue paid to distributors like Coinbase, and growth in non-interest income. The market also awaits Circle's stance on renegotiating its revenue-sharing contract with Coinbase, which expires in August. Second, on May 14, the U.S. Senate Banking Committee will vote on the CLARITY Act. This bill aims to establish a clear federal regulatory framework for digital assets. A recent compromise proposal would ban yield on static stablecoin reserves but allow rewards for active ones. Its passage, currently seen as likely by prediction markets, would be a major positive for the industry and Circle. Finally, on May 15, Kevin Warsh will succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair. Warsh's proposed policy of quantitative tightening combined with interest rate cuts could pose a short-term headwind for CRCL, as lower rates reduce Circle's primary revenue from USDC reserves. However, long-term prospects may improve as Warsh, a known crypto investor who opposes a Fed CBDC, is seen as potentially favorable to regulated private stablecoins like USDC.

marsbit1h ago

Earnings Report, CLARITY Bill, and Warsh's Arrival: CRCL Faces Three Major Tests This Week

marsbit1h ago

After 50x Storage Surge, Justin Sun Always Looks to the Next Decade

Sun Yuchen, known for his controversial stunts like a $30 million lunch with Warren Buffett (canceled due to a kidney stone) and eating a $6.2 million duct-taped banana, is often overshadowed by a significant fact: his decade-long track record of spotting major investment trends. In 2016, he famously advised young people to invest in Bitcoin, Nvidia, Tesla, and Tencent instead of buying property. A hypothetical $20,000 investment in Nvidia and Tesla from that list would now be worth over 50 million RMB. His latest major call was on November 6, 2025, predicting a "50x storage opportunity" tied to the AI boom, which materialized with Sandisk's stock surging nearly 50-fold by 2026. Looking ahead, Sun now focuses on the next frontier: Physical AI. He identifies four key areas: 1. **Embodied AI/Robotics**: He sees this reaching its "iPhone moment," with companies like UBTech and Galaxy General leading in commercialization. 2. **Drones**: Viewed as the first commercially viable form of Physical AI, revolutionizing sectors from warfare (e.g., AeroVironment's Switchblade) to logistics. 3. **Spatial Computing**: Beyond VR, it's about AI understanding physical space, a foundational technology for robotics and autonomous systems, exemplified by Apple's Vision Pro. 4. **Space Exploration**: After a 2025 suborbital flight with Blue Origin, Sun advocates for space as the ultimate frontier, discussing blockchain's potential role in space asset management and data transactions. His investment philosophy involves betting on entire, inevitable trends rather than single companies. For robotics, he sees Tesla (the body/manufacturer) and Nvidia (the brain/AI platform) as complementary plays. In defense drones, he highlights companies making tanks obsolete (AeroVironment) and those augmenting fighter jets (Kratos). For space, he participated in Blue Origin's flight and anticipates SpaceX's potential IPO to redefine the sector's valuation. Sun Yuchen's vision frames the next two decades not as a revolution in information flow (like the internet), but in the fundamental operation of the physical world through AI-powered robots, autonomous systems, and spatial intelligence, ultimately extending human and AI activity into space. While many still focus on conventional assets, he continues to look toward the next technological horizon.

marsbit2h ago

After 50x Storage Surge, Justin Sun Always Looks to the Next Decade

marsbit2h ago

Trading

Spot
Futures
活动图片