Author: Long Yue
Original Title: The Biggest Misconception About "Quantum Computing": It's Still "Too Early"
Investors generally believe that quantum computing is still in the realm of science fiction, but Barclays' latest research note points out that this "too early" illusion might cause you to miss the most critical trend in the next 12 months.
According to news from the trading desk, Barclays' analyst team has recently released a research report titled "Quantum Computing: Correcting Investors' Biggest Misconception".
The core logic is very straightforward: Wall Street is underestimating the speed of the technology explosion and completely misunderstanding the relationship between quantum and classical computing power (like Nvidia's). Barclays believes we are on the eve of transitioning from a "lab toy" to a "commercial tool".
Misconception 1: Quantum Computing is "Too Early"
Barclays' first correction is: Don't treat quantum computing as a purely long-term theme that "won't yield results for another decade".
The current market consensus is that perfectly functioning "Fault-Tolerant Quantum Computing" (FTQC) won't arrive until after 2030. This is correct, but Barclays reminds investors not to ignore the intermediate "tipping point".
Barclays points out that 2026 to 2027 will be the industry's watershed moment, achieving "Quantum Advantage".
More importantly is "how to define advantage". Barclays believes that "advantage is only proven when a system targets 100 logical qubits". It also cautions that any "claim of advantage" needs to be backed by "strong technical data"; otherwise, it's more like marketing than an inflection point.
"We expect major announcements within the next 12 months...... Quantum advantage will be proven when a system can stably run 100 logical qubits."
This is like the Wright brothers' first flight; although it couldn't carry passengers (commercialization), it proved that airplanes were better than horse-drawn carriages (quantum advantage). Once this signal appears, the valuation logic of the capital market will be instantly reshaped.
Misconception 2: Quantum is coming, it will replace classical computing, so Nvidia is finished?
This is the market's biggest cognitive bias. The report points out that many people think quantum computers are so powerful they will replace current CPUs and GPUs. Barclays refutes this: it's not a replacement relationship, but a "strongest assistant" relationship.
"Quantum computers will not replace classical computers as general-purpose machines but will complement them."
The core logic behind this is "error correction": Qubits are very fragile and unstable (prone to errors). To make them work properly, an extremely powerful classical computing system is needed to monitor and correct them in real-time.
Barclays' research reveals a startling data relationship:
"Each logical qubit might require one GPU for error correction and control."
What does this mean? If you build a quantum computer with 1000 logical qubits, you would need to purchase 500 to 2000 GPUs to support it.
This is no longer competition; it's symbiosis. The stronger the quantum computer, the more explosive the demand for chips from Nvidia and AMD. Barclays calculates that this "derived demand" could bring over $100 billion in incremental value to the classical computing market by 2040 in a blue-sky scenario.
Misconception 3: Quantum hardware is all similar, like buying a lottery ticket?
The truth about this misconception is that the field has already diverged, with clear leaders and laggards.
Quantum hardware paths are not singular. Barclays categorizes mainstream physical qubit paths into electronic (superconducting, electron spin), atomic (trapped ions, neutral atoms), and photonic, among others, noting that their pros and cons stem from trade-offs between speed, accuracy, coherence time, external infrastructure (cryogenics, lasers, vacuum), and scalability.
Using a "quantum benchmarking model," Barclays highlights the key points in the currently chaotic hardware landscape:
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Current "Accuracy King" — Trapped Ions: Represented by companies like Quantinuum and IonQ. Their advantage is accuracy, low error rates, and relatively mature technology.
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Future "Mass Production Dark Horse" — Silicon Spin: The direction Intel is pursuing. Although performance is currently average, it can leverage existing semiconductor fabs for manufacturing. Once it breaks through, it's the easiest to mass-produce.
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Winning by Numbers — Neutral Atoms: Have a natural advantage in stacking large numbers of qubits.
Barclays concludes:
"Our testing indicates that trapped ions are currently in the lead...... but the scalability of silicon spin deserves long-term attention."
Misconception 4: Passwords are about to be cracked?
Regarding the panic that "quantum computers will crack bank passwords tomorrow," Barclays pours cold water on it: Think again, the computing power isn't there yet.
Cracking current RSA encryption requires thousands of perfect logical qubits, while humanity's top equipment currently only has a few dozen. Barclays states bluntly:
"Quantum computers are not yet powerful enough...... modern encryption standards are not yet under threat."
Misconception 5: The quantum theme has "only two or three companies worth investing in"
The market often believes investment targets in this field are scarce, limited to a few well-known companies. But Barclays梳理ed the entire industry chain, identifying 45 listed companies and over 80 private companies. They are mainly distributed across four areas:
1) Quantum Processors (system sales or QCaaS cloud access)
2) Quantum Supply Chain (cryogenics, lasers/optics, control electronics, materials, etc.)
3) Quantum Chip Design and Manufacturing (overlap with traditional semiconductor manufacturing)
4) Ecosystem Enablers (cloud, data center infrastructure, quantum simulators, quantum-classical integration: GPU/CPU/servers, etc.)
The framework provided by the report leans more towards "risk pricing": short-term often means "higher revenue exposure" corresponds to "higher technical risk". It roughly categorizes technical risk as high (single path), medium (few paths), low (path agnostic) based on whether the business model is tied to a single path.
This also explains why the quantum narrative easily "focuses solely on pure quantum hardware stocks": their revenue exposure is most direct, but their path uncertainty is also greatest; whereas the supply chain, semiconductor equipment & EDA, cloud & data centers, and hybrid integration segments might better capture the transmission of "quantum progress → capital expenditure and supporting demand".
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