Last weekend, Trump announced 'an agreement with Iran is complete' and the Strait of Hormuz would open. But peace is never delivered by a single post from Trump. This weekend, the implementation of the ceasefire Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) encountered its first significant friction—and oil prices, precious metals, and stock indices all moved back and forth in a complete cycle, pulled by this main narrative.
On June 19-20, Israel conducted sustained airstrikes against Lebanon. Iran once postponed talks with the US as a result, with the Revolutionary Guards declaring a 'high state of alert' and threatening to withdraw from negotiations if Israeli strikes continued.
On June 20, Trump, while stating that 'about 700 ships are transiting the Strait, and Iran must reach an agreement within 60 days,' described the ceasefire MOU in an interview as 'basically Iran's unconditional surrender,' and threatened 'further action' if no deal is reached within 60 days. Tehran was thoroughly angered. Later that day, Iran's Supreme Military Joint Headquarters once declared the Strait of Hormuz closed due to US-Israeli 'violations of the ceasefire MOU.' Although US Central Command refuted this, claiming 'Iran does not control the Strait,' 55 commercial vessels still passed through that day.
On June 21, technical-level quadrilateral (US, Iran, Qatar, Pakistan) consultations commenced in Bürgenstock, Switzerland, led personally by Vice President Vance, with Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi sitting at the same table. During the initial 80-minute closed-door session, the Iranian delegation briefly left in protest over Trump's remarks but soon returned.
By June 22 (this morning), the atmosphere had noticeably warmed. Qatar and Pakistan issued a joint statement announcing three phased outcomes: the establishment of a high-level political oversight committee, the locking-in of a 60-day roadmap for a final agreement, and the activation of a mechanism for resolving the Lebanon conflict. The mediators described the negotiation atmosphere as 'extremely positive and constructive.' Pakistan also revealed that Iran would not obstruct ship passage through the Strait in the next 60 days, and passage would be free of charge. An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that 'the Swiss talks have made good progress.'
Crude Oil
Crude oil continued to oscillate with the news over the weekend but maintained an overall downtrend.
On June 19, citing US intelligence, The New York Times reported that 'Israel is likely to continue striking Lebanon,' pushing oil prices from $76.5 to around $78.
On the evening of June 20, when Iran's Supreme Military Headquarters declared the 'closure of the Strait,' oil prices surged instantly to a high of $79.
Subsequently, Trump made more aggressive remarks to Fox: 'The US may take over the Strait of Hormuz and charge tolls if necessary,' 'taking over the Strait means the US gets 20% of the oil,' and claimed to have had overnight calls with Iranian officials. Crude oil then rose slowly.
In the early hours of June 22, the Iranian Foreign Ministry's characterization that 'the Swiss talks have made good progress' led crude oil futures to retreat nearly 6% from the weekend's highs.
US Stocks
Compared to crude oil's sharp volatility, US stocks performed much more flatly this week.
On the index front, XYZ100 and SP500 basically oscillated around the zero line throughout the weekend, weakening intraday at one point (SP500 briefly probed near −0.6%) before recovering alongside the opening gains in index futures.
At the individual stock level, most followed the broader market slightly lower: tech sector SKHX −0.79%, MU −0.63%, NVDA −0.8%, SMSN −3.0%;
High-beta growth stocks SPCX −1.51%, DRAM −1.68%, MRVL −1.22% also pulled back in sync; relatively strong stocks included MSTR +0.89% and HIMS +0.38%.
Commodity Futures
Gold and silver saw a gap-up at the futures market open. This continued the 're-pricing of easing' logic that emerged last weekend. Falling oil prices reinforced expectations of peak inflation, lower yields, and a weaker dollar, which instead supported precious metals, rather than traditional safe-haven buying.
An unexpected move was the counter-trend rise in natural gas (+2.51%).
The increase may stem from an accident. Earlier today, a fire and explosion occurred at a natural gas plant at Qatar's core LNG processing base, Ras Laffan, injuring 54 people with 18 missing. The Barzan gas plant at this base supplies gas for Qatar's domestic industry and power generation. It is still unclear if LNG production is affected. Qatar was the world's second-largest LNG exporter before the war and had temporarily suspended production due to facility attacks and Strait closures in the early stages of the conflict.
In subtle contrast to this explosion was another 'production resumption' signal: Qatar has begun recalling empty LNG carriers to re-enter the Persian Gulf, with market predictions that gas supply from Qatar is about to resume.
