Author: Deep Tide TechFlow
US Stocks: Wall Street Finally Emerges from the Shadow of Iran
On Wednesday, Wall Street took a rare breath of relief after four weeks.
What drove the market wasn't any earnings report or a comment from a Federal Reserve official, but a document—the US submitted a 15-point ceasefire plan to Iran, with Israel's Channel 12 simultaneously reporting that Washington is seeking a one-month ceasefire. The news caused Dow futures to jump over 0.9%, oil prices to fall below critical levels, and the entire market mood to switch direction even before the opening bell.
Brent crude fell over 4% at the open, dropping below $100 per barrel, while stock markets in Japan, South Korea, Australia, and other Asia-Pacific regions rose, and US stock index futures gained over 0.7%.
The backdrop of this rally was the extreme压抑 that had suffocated the market in the previous days. On Tuesday (March 24), the war alarm sounded again: the Dow fell 84 points to 46,124, the S&P 500 dropped 0.37% to close at 6,556, and the Nasdaq fell 0.84%—the deepest decline, dragged down by technology and communication sectors. Energy, materials, and utilities were among the few S&P sectors that managed to stay in the green, while most others fell.
The contrast between the two days is stark. On Monday, a "productive talks" post from Trump's Truth Social flipped the shorts; on Wednesday, a concrete plan was submitted, injecting more substantial optimistic expectations into the market.
At the individual stock level, tech stocks are still struggling with internal woes. Oracle has retreated over 50% from its September high, ServiceNow fell nearly 6%, Salesforce dropped over 6.5%, and Microsoft fell nearly 3%. Amazon's launch of new AI tools continues to pressure the software sector—the software ETF (IGV) has fallen 23% year-to-date, hitting a new low since February 25.
However, on March 25, the long-awaited rebound window finally opened.
In terms of sentiment indicators, the VIX volatility index reported 26.95 on Tuesday, down from over 30 at the initial outbreak of the war but still well above normal levels. The 10-year US Treasury yield continued to climb to 4.39%, another crack衍生 from this war—historically, geopolitical risks often drive funds into US Treasuries, lowering yields, but the 2026 Middle East war has done the exact opposite. Market expectations for a rate cut this year have plummeted from 95% a month ago to about 5%, with nearly a 40% probability pricing in at least one rate hike.
This is the真正令人警惕的裂缝: the dual squeeze of the oil price war and inflation expectations has almost zeroed out the Fed's room for rate cuts.
Gold and Oil: One Plunges, One Soars Against the Trend
Wednesday's commodity market上演了一场 directionally opposite duet.
Oil: Ceasefire Expectations Dig a Big Hole
WTI crude reported around $87.60 per barrel during the session, down over 5%, with Brent crude also sharply falling back below $100. The catalyst was clear and direct: the news of the US submitting a ceasefire plan led the market to提前兑现 expectations of the war ending.
But there's a logical trap worth noting: the Strait of Hormuz has not yet fully reopened, Iran has not officially responded to the plan, yet oil prices have already run ahead of reality. In the past few weeks, similar "抢跑" has happened twice—on March 23 (Monday), when Trump posted, Brent plunged nearly 11% in a single day; when the war reignited on Tuesday, oil prices surged back. This tug-of-war rhythm tells us that the market's nerve endings are almost entirely tied to a single social media post from Trump.
Gold: Breaking the "Must Fall in War" Logic
Spot gold surged nearly 3.7% during Wednesday's session, reporting around $4,563 per ounce; silver also rose sharply, gaining about 6.66%.
This move needs explanation because it's counterintuitive. Gold's recent decline was precisely the product of the logic chain: surging oil prices → rising inflation expectations → stronger dollar → gold under pressure. Wednesday's oil price plunge interrupted this chain, the dollar weakened accordingly, and gold's bullish logic reactivated, attracting a flood of funds.
Deeper structural support lies in: gold had already hit a historical high of $5,600 per ounce earlier this year; even after a pullback, it remains in a high range, showing stronger resilience than Bitcoin. Central banks' continuous increase in gold reserves provides bottom support that穿越 the war cycle.
Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin Hovers Around $70,000, but Bernstein Calls "Bottom In"
Bitcoin reported around $70,888 on Wednesday, up about 0.28% on the day, generally oscillating near the $70,000 mark.
The context of this price is worth noting: Bitcoin has回调 over 40% from its historical high of around $126,000 in October last year. But in a broadly green environment, Bitcoin's performance has been relatively resilient—it has shown some "alternative safe haven" characteristics in the past few weeks, especially during the peak of Middle East geopolitical risks, with funds flowing from traditional safe-haven assets to Bitcoin.
On the institutional side, the situation is quietly changing. Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani released a report on Monday, explicitly stating, "We believe Bitcoin has bottomed and is moving upward," maintaining a year-end target of $150,000. He pointed out that the net outflow from ETFs at the beginning of the year has reversed, with spot ETFs currently holding about 6.1% of Bitcoin's total supply; digital asset "treasury企业" Strategy holds about 3.6% of the total supply and remains a strong buyer.
The Fear and Greed Index recently reported 25 (extreme fear), BTC's market dominance is about 58.8%, and the global crypto total market cap is about $2.52 trillion.
Another line: Circle (CRCL) plunged about 20% on Tuesday, its largest single-day drop in history, triggered by the new draft of the "Stablecoin Clarity Act"—reportedly, the bill may prohibit platforms from providing any form of "yield" for holding stablecoins, directly threatening Circle's business model. Coinbase fell over 8% on the same day. Regulatory variables are becoming a达摩克利斯之剑 hanging over the crypto market.
Today's Summary: The Ceasefire Plan Rewrote the Day's Price Logic, but the War Continues
On March 25, the US submitted a 15-point ceasefire plan to Iran, and the market提前兑现 the good news:
US Stocks: Rebounded after continuous pressure, with futures up 0.7%-1%; ceasefire expectations drove risk appetite回升, but the internal injuries of the AI software sector are hard to heal in the short term.
Oil/Gold: WTI crude fell over 5% to around $87.6 per barrel, Brent fell back below $100; gold却逆势暴涨 nearly 3.7% to around $4,563, as the oil-inflation chain broke,反而 relieving pressure on gold.
Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin held steady around $70,000; Bernstein高调 announced the bottom is in, with institutional accumulation signals strengthening, but stablecoin regulatory clouds are a new压制变量.
The market now only cares about one question: Will Iran accept this 15-point plan?
If Tehran gives a positive response within the week, oil prices will accelerate their fall below $80, rate expectations will tilt back toward cuts, and tech stocks坑ed by the war will see the fiercest counterattack. If Iran refuses or remains silent, Wednesday's rebound will be like the previous ones—fleeting, and the market will quickly return to panic mode.
This war has been going on for nearly a month, and the market has evolved an instinct to accurately identify "true signals" and "false signals." A document is not enough; the real turning point requires ships in the Strait of Hormuz to start moving again.
