Is Dogecoin Near A Bottom? This Key Metric Is Offering New Clues On The Matter

bitcoinistPublished on 2026-06-08Last updated on 2026-06-08

Abstract

Dogecoin may be nearing a market bottom, according to analysis of the Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) metric by Joao Wedson of Alphractal. Historically, when DOGE's CVDD chart approaches or dips below 1, it has signaled major price bottoms. Wedson suggests the signal will solidify if Dogecoin falls below $0.08, marking an ideal accumulation zone for long-term holders, with a potential bottom possibly occurring in June—a pattern seen in past bear markets. Analyst Namtoshi Dogemoto points to a long-term macro support level dating back to 2017. He predicts June volatility similar to 2020, where DOGE dipped below support but recovered sharply by month's end, presenting a buying opportunity. Meanwhile, Ali Charts notes DOGE is testing a key support at $0.0883. Holding above it could lead to a recovery toward $0.1019 and $0.1156, while a breakdown might target the next support near $0.067.

With heightened bearish pressure continuing to impact Dogecoin’s price action, investors are now discussing and showing concerns about when the meme coin could bottom out. However, a crucial signal has recently emerged from a key metric, suggesting that DOGE’s market bottom may be taking shape.

Dogecoin’s Price Bottoming Signal Emerges

Dogecoin may witness a slight bounce on Sunday, but its broader outlook remains highly bearish, stifled by ongoing volatility in the crypto market. As investors look for indications that Dogecoin might be nearing a turning point, one on-chain metric is gaining attention for its clues about the meme coin’s current phase.

These clues are emerging from the Dogecoin Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) metric. After thoroughly examining the metric, Joao Wedson, the founder of the Alphractal on-chain platform, announced that DOGE is in a price bottoming phase. According to the expert, this metric has been one of the most accurate throughout the meme coin’s history. This is because every time DOGE approached 1 on the chart, or spent just a few days below it, major price bottoms often follow.

While the phase matures, Wedson highlighted that the latest bottoming signal will be triggered whenever Dogecoin falls below the $0.08 level. Once the meme coin drops below this level, this development will be seen as an ideal entry point, as the smartest investors are expected to start accumulating a lot of DOGE.

As a result, the expert has advised investors to start accumulating, especially during the capitulation phase, and hold the meme coin for a long time. In the midst of rising volatility, Dogecoin could reach a price bottom before Bitcoin.

Wedson is confident DOGE might bottom out in June because the meme coin often marks a local bottom in the month in bear market periods. Meanwhile, BTC typically reaches a price bottom at the end of Q3 or Q4 during bear market phases.

Past Price Trend Is Set To Repeat

DOGE may bottom out in June, but its price action in the month is not going to be a smooth one. In the monthly timeframe, Dogecoin has dropped down to a long-term macro support level, which has been present since 2017.

As a result, Namtoshi Dogemoto, an investor and crypto analyst, has predicted that the meme coin may experience some volatility in June as it did in the 2020 market cycle. During the period, DOGE dropped below this support on multiple occasions and sprinted back up before the end of the month. With a similar trend emerging, DOGE is likely to mirror the price action of June 2020.

Currently, the expert is positioned below the macro support level, and a repetition of this price action could result in massive gains. “I didn’t think we would visit down here, but it’s a great opportunity to load up now,” Dogemoto added.

Ali Charts shared that DOGE has reached a closely monitored target of $0.0883, with the lower boundary of a parallel channel now being tested. As long as this support holds, the expert believes recovery toward $0.1019 and $0.1156 could unfold. However, a breakdown is likely to expose the next major supply zone near $0.067.

DOGE trading at $0.085 on the 1D chart | Source: DOGEUSDT on Tradingview.com

Wang Chuan: After Investing in Storage Stocks and Seeing a Thirty-Fold Return, How to Remain Unanxious (Part 7) - A Quarter-Century Cycle

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Wang Chuan: After Investing in Storage Stocks and Seeing a Thirty-Fold Return, How to Remain Unanxious (Part 7) - A Quarter-Century Cycle

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a16z Partner: Three Paths for Crypto Projects to Find PMF

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Wang Chuan: How to Avoid Anxiety When the Neighbor, Lao Wang, Made Thirty Times His Investment in Storage Stocks (7) - A Quarter-Century Cycle

Wang Chuan: Reflections on a Quarter-Century Cycle – How to Stay Calm After a 30x Gain on Storage Stocks (Part 7) This article continues the discussion on investment pitfalls. It highlights the deceptive use of metrics like the "Annualized Net Dollar Retention Rate" by some companies to inflate growth projections. The core analysis focuses on the "reflexivity" present in both product demand and financial markets during boom periods. In a bubble, speculative and fear-driven demand in the real economy interacts with speculative, leveraged buying in financial markets, creating a powerful upward feedback loop. This dynamic reverses sharply when faced with physical or liquidity constraints, leading to a cascading downturn. The hardware and semiconductor sectors face unique risks. Unlike assets with defined cycles, there's no guarantee of a swift recovery post-crash. Historical examples like Micron, Intel, and Cisco show it can take decades to surpass previous peaks after severe drawdowns (80-95%). This is due to the "bullwhip effect" in supply chains—demand vanishes quickly while过剩产能 persists—and the migration of speculative capital and growth narratives to new sectors once momentum slows. Companies may have stronger fundamentals years later, but the speculative "soul" of extreme valuations is long gone. The author warns of psychological traps for new investors: mistaking temporary, intense demand for permanent growth, and believing that making quick, large profits is easy. Citing Buffett, the piece cautions that easy money erodes rationality. The current phase presents an asymmetric risk-reward scenario: potential for further gains versus the risk of an 80%+ drawdown and a multi-decade recovery wait—an outcome reflexive speculators cannot endure. The hypothetical "Lao Wang" who made 30x may be wiped out by leverage or, driven by the "get-rich-quick" mindset, may repeatedly try to recover losses until exhausted, failing to recognize that the high-growth narrative has ended. The piece concludes with Schopenhauer's analogy: those who've seen multiple cycles are like an audience watching the same magic trick repeatedly—the illusion no longer works.

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Wang Chuan: How to Avoid Anxiety When the Neighbor, Lao Wang, Made Thirty Times His Investment in Storage Stocks (7) - A Quarter-Century Cycle

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Bitcoin Bull Turn Hinges On US Debt Wall, Real Vision Says

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