Is Bitcoin Price Witnessing A Relief Rally? What On-Chain Data Says

bitcoinistPublished on 2026-01-10Last updated on 2026-01-10

Abstract

Bitcoin's price has shown a strong start to 2026, mostly staying above the key $90,000 level, sparking debate on whether this is a true bullish resurgence or a bear market relief rally. Analyst Maartunn points to on-chain data, noting that the bounce was supported by the ETF Realized Price at $85,000, where buyers defended their positions. The Coinbase Premium Gap also rose, indicating increased buying from U.S. investors, followed by strong ETF inflows—suggesting strategic rebalancing rather than emotional FOMO. However, BTC was rejected at the $94,000 resistance and remains below critical on-chain levels like the Short-Term Holder and Whale Realized Prices. Despite a 10% rise, the analyst concludes this is likely a relief rally within a bear trend. A sustained break above $94,000 is needed to confirm a bullish restart. Currently, BTC is trading around $90,360, down 1% in 24 hours.

The Bitcoin price looks to be off to a great start, having spent most of the new year above the psychological $90,000 mark. While the premier cryptocurrency has slowed down in recent days, there has been a display of significant bullish intent in the market so far in 2026.

Now, this latest show of optimism somewhat contradicts recent predictions that the Bitcoin price might be at the start of a bear market. This begs the question — could the bull run be nearing a restart, or is the price of BTC only witnessing a relief rally?

BTC’s Recent Bounce A Mere Bear Market Relief Rally — Analyst

In a January 9 post on the X platform, crypto analyst Maartunn shared interesting data points to answer the question of whether Bitcoin’s latest price bounce is meaningful or just a relief rally. The market pundit anchored their answer on both on-chain and technical price data.

Firstly, Maartunn acknowledged that the recent jump was only bound to happen, as the Bitcoin price found support around the ETF Realized Price at $85,000. This price level represents the average cost basis of BTC ETF investors, and as expected, the buyers defended their positions — leading to the price bounce.

This phenomenon is spotlighted by another on-chain metric, the Coinbase Premium Gap, which measures the difference between the Bitcoin price on Coinbase and global exchanges. According to Maartunn, the metric started to rise right after New Year’s Eve, signaling renewed buying activity from US-based investors.

Furthermore, the spot exchange-traded funds started seeing strong capital inflows days after this uptick in the Coinbase Premium Gap. “This looks more like strategic buying/portfolio rebalancing (new quarter, new year) than emotional FOMO,” Maartunn added.

Source: @JA_Maartun on X

However, the crypto analyst noted that the rally only saw the Bitcoin Price climb to the range high at $94,000 before getting rejected. In essence, this suggests that the flagship cryptocurrency does not possess the bullish strength to breach that resistance.

Additionally, Maartunn mentioned that Bitcoin is still trading beneath crucial on-chain levels like the Short-Term Holder Realized Price and Whale Realized Price, both of which are acting as significant overhead resistance.

The on-chain analyst noted that the on-chain observations suggest that this recent bounce is merely a bear market relief rally, not a trend continuation — even though the price is up by about 10%. Only a clean break and sustained close above the $94,000 would indicate the Bitcoin price’s strong intent to rebuild a bullish structure, Martunn concluded.

Bitcoin Price At A Glance

As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at $90,360, reflecting an almost 1% decline in the past 24 hours.

The price of BTC on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

Related Questions

QWhat on-chain metric signaled renewed buying activity from US-based investors after New Year's Eve?

AThe Coinbase Premium Gap, which measures the difference between the Bitcoin price on Coinbase and global exchanges.

QAccording to analyst Maartunn, what price level acted as a key support for Bitcoin, leading to the recent bounce?

AThe ETF Realized Price at $85,000, which represents the average cost basis of BTC ETF investors.

QWhat does the analyst conclude the recent Bitcoin price bounce represents, based on the on-chain data?

AHe concludes it is merely a bear market relief rally, not a trend continuation or the restart of a bull run.

QWhat critical resistance level did the Bitcoin price get rejected at during this rally?

AThe range high at $94,000.

QWhat two specific on-chain price levels is Bitcoin still trading beneath, which are acting as significant overhead resistance?

AThe Short-Term Holder Realized Price and the Whale Realized Price.

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