Is a16z's Mainstream Prediction for Decentralized Payments Overly Optimistic?

比推Published on 2025-12-12Last updated on 2025-12-12

Abstract

In response to a16z's report predicting decentralized payments as a major trend by 2026, this article presents five key judgments on the future of crypto payments. First, stablecoin gateways will undergo revolutionary changes, with major payment networks like Stripe's Tempo enabling deeper integration with traditional finance, reducing transaction costs and improving user experience. Second, the fusion of RWA assets and stablecoins will catalyze on-chain lending, as traditional assets become tokenized and traded using stablecoins like USDC and USDT, enhancing liquidity and compliance. Third, the "internet as a bank" model will emerge, combining AI agents, the x402 protocol, and stablecoins to enable seamless online payments, tokenization of digital products, and more efficient virtual economies. Fourth, investment barriers will lower significantly, allowing fractional ownership of assets like SpaceX IPO shares through tokenization, democratizing access to financial markets. Fifth, intense competition among stablecoins (e.g., USDH, USDC) will continue, resembling past "wars" in tech sectors, potentially benefiting users through subsidies and incentives. The article concludes that 2026 could be a turning point for crypto adoption, driven by these developments in payments and decentralized finance.

Author: Wenser, Odaily Planet Daily

Original Title: a16z Predicts Decentralized Payments Becoming Mainstream, and My Judgment Is as Follows

Yesterday, the "industry's top narrative VC" a16z released a heavyweight report titled "17 Major Creative Trends Most Anticipated in Crypto for 2026," covering areas such as stablecoins, tokenization, payments and finance, privacy, security, AI, and agents. It particularly highlighted the information that "stablecoin transaction volume has reached $46 trillion in 2024, a figure that is 20 times that of PayPal's transaction volume and nearly 3 times that of Visa's transaction volume."

Considering recent news such as OSL Group's upcoming launch of the stablecoin USDGO, Jupiter's stablecoin JupUSD set to go live next week, and YouTube supporting US creators receiving revenue via PayPal's stablecoin PYUSD, Odaily Planet Daily boldly asserts that 2026 will become a "critical turning point" for the crypto industry and the crypto payments sector. Based on the above information, we will make the following judgments on the future direction of crypto payments.

Judgment One: Revolutionary Changes Coming to Stablecoin "Gateways"

As mentioned in the a16z report—"The core issue that remains unresolved is: how to connect these digital dollars to the financial systems people use daily—i.e., the on- and off-ramps for stablecoins."

Current mainstream methods include exchange C2C trading, payment giant conversion networks, stablecoin issuer channels, and other paths. Next year, numerous payment giants' stablecoin networks will gradually launch (such as the Tempo network supported by Stripe and Paradigm). At that time, stablecoin "gateways" will integrate more deeply with traditional financial markets, daily payment networks, and life transaction scenarios.

If mobile payments in China solved a series of usage scenarios, cost compression, and promotion issues through QR code solutions and digital red envelopes, then the introduction of regional and global payment networks by payment giants will provide a more convenient user experience, lower transfer transaction costs, and a smoother fiat-to-stablecoin conversion process for stablecoin on- and off-ramps.

Furthermore, the 2B merchant usage level is also expected to usher in a new growth period as regulatory frameworks are further refined, mobile applications gradually become richer, and payment efficiency is further improved.

Satoshi Nakamoto's vision of a "Peer-to-Peer" electronic payment system will be realized through the vehicle of stablecoins.

Judgment Two: Integration of RWA Assets and Stablecoins Spurs On-Chain Lending Business

At the crossroads of DeFi and TradFi, RWA assets are of paramount importance.

However, in the past, RWA assets were limited by the complexity of off-chain assets and fixed product forms, making it difficult to achieve complete "on-chain transformation." Simultaneously, the anchored value and price presentation of RWA assets often varied due to regional differences, time changes, and industry disparities.

As traditional financial markets face the impact of liquidity devaluation brought by interest rate cuts, the stablecoin system may facilitate the transformation of the on-chain and off-chain trading systems for RWA assets.

In other words, by 2026, RWA assets may be priced in stablecoins through banking systems and payment networks, enabling exploration in areas such as RWA contracts, RWA lending, and RWA asset mergers and acquisitions.

This year, the Nasdaq exchange's proactive submission of a stock tokenization trading application to the U.S. SEC was an early sign. Next year, based on "the first listed stablecoin stock" Circle's stablecoin USDC and the "stablecoin leader" Tether's newly launched USAT stablecoin, more scenarios may emerge where stablecoins are used to purchase traditional financial market products and participate in the trading processes and more aspects of traditional financial markets.

As mentioned in the a16z report, "perpetual contracts" are expected to provide deeper liquidity for RWA assets, and crypto-native RWA asset tokenization will further develop; after meeting compliance and standardization requirements, on-chain lending business will also experience rapid growth.

Judgment Three: The Internet-as-a-Bank Model Arrives, AI Agent, x402 Protocol, and Stablecoins Offer More Possibilities

This change may become the new starting point for the most anticipated "wave of massive crypto adoption" in 2026.

Just like the event "YouTube adds payment of income to creators via PayPal's stablecoin," with the rapid development of AI Agents, the gradual expansion of the x402 protocol, and its infiltration into more life, work, and business scenarios, stablecoins and cryptocurrencies will conduct a "financial transformation" of the entire internet, which will bring about a series of astonishing changes—

1. Integration of online and on-chain payments, significantly improving transaction efficiency. From the previous "what you see is what you get" to the future "what you think is what you buy," the combination of AI Agents and stablecoin payment systems will meet people's various internet shopping needs. Product screening, demand insight, and payment convenience will all undergo earth-shaking changes.

2. Internet products can be tokenized and quantitatively paid. Based on the expansion of stablecoin payment networks, numerous internet products (tangible and intangible) will be quantifiable by stablecoins. With convenient on- and off-ramps, buyers and sellers can exchange goods and currency efficiently without intermediaries, lossy links, or long turnover periods.

3. The virtual digital economy receives further stimulation. Whether it's current YouTube creators or various professional roles providing online virtual services, they will further supplement the online economy of the internet, and the stablecoin payment system will become a more efficient major option. Compared to previous behaviors like buying peripherals, offline support, and physical meetings to support virtual idols, convenient and quick "direct payment" may become the choice for more people.

Judgment Four: Stepping into the Era of Universal Finance, Further Lowering Investment Thresholds

This is perhaps the most直观 and far-reaching aspect in the further development of stock tokenization and the stablecoin system.

Limited by the structure and regulatory policies of past banking systems and securities trading markets, ordinary individual users often found it difficult to participate in economic and financial markets and capital efficiency markets with low thresholds, low costs, and small shares. However, in the next year and the future, as stock tokenization platforms, processes, and regulatory environments become more mature, combined with AI investment advisor roles and investment opinion references, everyone will become an indispensable and closely related part of the financial system.

In the not-too-distant 2026, it may become possible to buy one dollar's worth of SpaceX IPO shares; and putting one's limited funds into DeFi capital platforms jointly launched by banking systems and crypto-native projects with annualized yields slightly higher than treasury bonds might also be a good choice.

Most importantly, asset tokenization and fragmentation will further improve capital utilization efficiency and inject deeper liquidity into the global economic and financial markets.

At that time, with the help of tokenization systems and stablecoin networks, everyone will be a mesh in the financial network. Of course, this will inevitably be accompanied by risks, but it will also truly give the right to invest to each individual to make their own choices.

Judgment Five: The Hundred-Stablecoin War Will Continue, User Dividends Always Exist

In 2025, the main theme of the crypto industry is mainstream adoption, regulatory compliance, and institutional popularization. Next year, however, will be an even more fiercely competitive "Hundred-Stablecoin War."

This year's competition from Hyperliquid's native stablecoin code USDH is just a prelude and a small glimpse of the great stablecoin industry melee next year. Compared to USDT, Circle's USDC may face more intense competition and suffer more market share erosion.

Just like the previous "Hundred Group Buys War for food delivery" and "Hundred Group Buys War for ride-hailing," the white-hot competition on the supply side will, to a certain extent, bring asymmetric benefits to the demand side. Ordinary users are expected to continue receiving good stablecoin usage subsidy benefits or other economic incentive returns.

The fact that Hong Kong compliant exchange OSL Group and Solana ecosystem comprehensive platform Jupiter are both "dabbling" in stablecoins also means that more compliant institutions and crypto service platforms will launch their own native stablecoins to gain advantageous positions in payment networks, commercial revenue, and user growth.

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Original link:https://www.bitpush.news/articles/7595312

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