Monday, despite the US military's attack on military targets on Kharg Island last week, navigation signals appeared in the Strait of Hormuz, and Trump also indicated that negotiations with Iran are still ongoing. Crude oil futures opened higher but then fell, while US stock futures and Asian stock markets moved higher.
According to CCTV News, on Friday evening Eastern Time on the 13th, US President Trump posted on social media, stating that the US military had launched "heavy airstrikes" on military targets at Kharg Island, Iran's oil export hub. On the 14th, two liquefied petroleum gas tankers flying the Indian flag and belonging to an Indian shipping company successfully transited the Strait of Hormuz.
According to Xinhua News Agency, Trump said in a telephone interview with NBC on the 14th that Iran is ready to negotiate a ceasefire, but he is not yet ready to make a deal "because the terms are not good enough."
Specifically, in terms of market movements, WTI crude oil futures fell by more than $1, to $97.63 per barrel, after earlier rising over 3%. Brent crude oil retreated to around $103 per barrel after an initial jump at the open.
Asian stocks rose, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index moving higher. South Korea's Seoul Composite Index saw its intraday gain widen to 1.4% at one point.
S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 index futures rose nearly 0.5%, following three consecutive weeks of declines for the S&P 500 index.
US Treasuries erased their year-to-date returns. The 10-year Treasury yield surged more than 30 basis points in March, recently edging down slightly to 4.26%, while the 2-year yield rose to its highest level since last September.
Since the outbreak of the conflict, Brent crude has cumulatively risen 40%, global stocks have fallen over 5%, the year-to-date gains in US Treasuries have been completely wiped out, and market stress indicators are approaching the peak levels seen during the tariff shock last April. The International Energy Agency has stated it will immediately release strategic reserves to Asia to ease supply disruption pressures in the Middle East.
Inflation risks will be the core topic for markets this week. Eight of the world's ten major central banks are scheduled to announce interest rate decisions this week, as各方 need to judge the policy path against the backdrop of ongoing uncertain geopolitical developments.
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