Examining why Bitcoin was less volatile than Nvidia in 2025

ambcryptoPublished on 2025-12-19Last updated on 2025-12-19

Abstract

According to a Bitwise analysis, Bitcoin exhibited lower volatility than Nvidia throughout 2025, signaling a new market phase. This shift is attributed to structural derisking driven by increased institutional access, regulatory oversight, and the significant influence of ETFs. These funds have broadened Bitcoin's investor base, smoothing out its historically extreme boom-bust cycles. ETFs now act as market whales, with their flows dictating risk sentiment. Bitwise predicts ETFs will purchase more than the entire new supply of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana in 2026. The firm also expects crypto equities to outperform tech stocks, as evidenced by its Crypto Innovators 30 Index's 585% surge versus tech's 140% gain. At press time, Bitcoin traded near $88k, with price reactions appearing more controlled than in previous cycles.

According to a detailed Bitwise thread, Bitcoin [BTC] has entered a new market phase. The firm noted that Bitcoin no longer behaves like a leverage‐driven asset.

Bitwise explained that institutional access and regulatory oversight have replaced the hype surrounding halving and speculative excess. This shift, they argued, has helped reduce the extreme boom‐and‐bust cycles that once defined Bitcoin’s market behavior.

Why Bitcoin stayed calmer than Nvidia

Bitwise reported that Bitcoin was less volatile than Nvidia throughout 2025. The firm highlighted how Bitcoin’s rolling volatility has steadily declined over the past decade.

They described this trend as structural derisking across the crypto market. According to Bitwise, the shift is directly linked to the rise of ETFs, which have broadened Bitcoin’s investor base and helped smooth out volatility.

Currently, these exchange‐traded funds act as the new whales, steering Bitcoin and wider crypto flows. When ETFs withdraw liquidity, markets interpret it as “risk off.” Conversely, when they buy aggressively, sentiment flips to “risk on.”

ETFs, institutions, and expanding market exposure

Bitwise predicted that, in 2026, ETFs will purchase more than the entire new supply of Bitcoin, Ethereum [ETH], and Solana [SOL]. Since launch, Bitcoin ETFs have bought 710,777 BTC, while the network has produced 363,047 BTC.

The firm predicted that crypto equities will decisively outperform tech stocks in the current market cycle. It highlighted its Crypto Innovators 30 Index, which surged 585%, far surpassing tech’s 140% gain.

Bitwise extended the outlook to prediction markets, stablecoins, and tokenization. It predicted Polymarket open interest would reach new highs and warned stablecoins could be blamed for destabilizing an emerging market currency as supply neared $300B.

Analyzing Bitcoin’s price action

At press time, Bitcoin traded near $88k, holding visible support after the broader pullback. Price reactions appeared more controlled than prior cycle corrections.

MACD fell to extreme bearish levels during the drop toward $80,000.

Momentum has dropped below the previous lows from August 2024 and April 2025, reflecting patterns of earlier exhaustion phases.

Final Thoughts

  • Bitwise framed Bitcoin’s lower volatility versus Nvidia as a lasting structural shift.
  • ETFs, regulation, and institutions reshaped Bitcoin’s price behavior and market role.

Related Questions

QAccording to the article, why was Bitcoin less volatile than Nvidia in 2025?

AThe article attributes Bitcoin's lower volatility to structural derisking in the crypto market, driven by the rise of ETFs which have broadened its investor base and smoothed out price swings, replacing the previous hype-driven, speculative behavior.

QWhat role do ETFs play in the current Bitcoin market, as described by Bitwise?

AETFs now act as the new whales in the market, steering Bitcoin and wider crypto flows. Their buying is interpreted as 'risk on' sentiment, while withdrawals are seen as 'risk off', and they are predicted to purchase more than the entire new supply of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana in 2026.

QWhat key factor did Bitwise link to the reduction of Bitcoin's extreme boom-and-bust cycles?

ABitwise linked this reduction to a market shift where institutional access and regulatory oversight have replaced the hype surrounding halving events and speculative excess.

QHow did the performance of crypto equities compare to tech stocks, according to the article?

AThe article states that crypto equities, as measured by the Bitwise Crypto Innovators 30 Index, decisively outperformed tech stocks, surging 585% compared to tech's 140% gain in the current market cycle.

QWhat was the state of Bitcoin's price and momentum at the time the article was written?

AAt press time, Bitcoin was trading near $88k, holding visible support after a pullback. The MACD had fallen to extreme bearish levels during a drop toward $80,000, and momentum had dropped below previous lows, reflecting patterns of earlier exhaustion phases.

Related Reads

Key Lawmaker 'Relents', Wash's Biggest Obstacle to Assuming Fed Chair on May 15 Cleared

Key political opposition to Kevin Warsh's nomination as Federal Reserve Chair has been removed after Senator Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) withdrew his objection, clearing the way for a committee vote on April 29. Tillis had previously blocked the nomination due to a criminal investigation into current Chair Jerome Powell, which he viewed as a threat to Fed independence. The Justice Department has since dropped the investigation. Warsh, who has broad Republican support, is expected to be confirmed by the Senate in time for Powell’s term expiration on May 15. If confirmed, Warsh has signaled significant policy changes, including abolishing the "dot plot" of interest rate projections and reevaluating the Fed’s forward guidance framework. These changes could fundamentally alter the market’s pricing mechanisms for stocks, bonds, and currencies. Although the criminal case against Powell is closed, uncertainty remains as he retains his board seat until 2028. President Trump has not fully endorsed Powell, citing an ongoing review of Fed renovation spending. Warsh’s potential reforms target the communication tools developed post-2008, which have become foundational to global asset pricing.

marsbit19m ago

Key Lawmaker 'Relents', Wash's Biggest Obstacle to Assuming Fed Chair on May 15 Cleared

marsbit19m ago

Lowering Expectations for BTC's Next Bull Market

The author, Alex Xu, explains his decision to significantly reduce his Bitcoin holdings (from full to ~30% of his portfolio) during the current bull cycle, citing a lowered long-term outlook for BTC's price appreciation in the next cycle. He outlines six key reasons for this reduced expectation: 1. **Diminished Growth Drivers:** The narrative of exponential user adoption has largely played out with institutional ETF adoption. The next major growth phase—adoption by sovereign national reserves or central banks—seems unlikely in the near future. 2. **Personal Opportunity Cost:** More attractive investment opportunities have emerged in other assets, such as undervalued companies. 3. **Industry-Wide Contraction:** The broader crypto industry is struggling, with most Web3 business models (SocialFi, GameFi, DePIN) failing. This overall萧条 (depression) reduces the fundamental demand and consensus for Bitcoin. 4. **Strain on Major Buyer:** MicroStrategy, a major corporate buyer of BTC, faces rising financing expenses for its debt, which could slow its purchasing rate and create significant marginal pressure on the market. 5. **Increased Competition from Gold:** The emergence of "tokenized gold" has closed the functional gap (portability, divisibility) between physical gold and Bitcoin, offering a strong competitor in the non-sovereign store-of-value space. 6. **Security Budget Concerns:** The block reward halving continues to exacerbate the long-standing issue of funding Bitcoin's network security, with new fee source explorations like Ordinals and L2s largely failing. The author's decision to hold a significant (though reduced) position reflects a cautious, not bearish, outlook. He remains open to increasing his exposure if the fundamental reasons for his skepticism change or if new positive catalysts emerge.

marsbit34m ago

Lowering Expectations for BTC's Next Bull Market

marsbit34m ago

Prediction Markets Cannot Exist Without Insider Trading, But Insider Trading Is Killing Them

Prediction markets face a fundamental contradiction: they rely on insider trading to generate accurate prices, yet this same activity erodes public trust and threatens their survival. Recent scandals, such as a U.S. special forces member making $400,000 on Polymarket using classified information about a raid, highlight the severity of the issue. While platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi market themselves as venues where "everyone is an expert" and encourage informed trading, they also enforce policies against illegal insider trading. The core dilemma is that these markets depend on informed insiders for price efficiency but require uninformed retail participants to provide liquidity. If insider trading is too rampant, retail traders leave, perceiving the market as unfair. If restrictions are too strict, valuable information flow dries up, reducing the market’s predictive utility. The challenge is finding a balance that maintains both accuracy and perceived fairness—a task complicated by regulatory pressures and recurring scandals.

marsbit39m ago

Prediction Markets Cannot Exist Without Insider Trading, But Insider Trading Is Killing Them

marsbit39m ago

Can Iran 'Control' the Strait of Hormuz?

Iran has announced a comprehensive plan to assert control over the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil shipping chokepoint. The proposed measures include requiring all vessels to obtain Iranian permission for passage, imposing fees for security, environmental protection, and navigation management—preferably paid in Iranian rials—and absolutely banning Israeli ships. Vessels from countries deemed hostile by Iran’s top security bodies may also be barred. Analysts suggest Iran’s motives are multifaceted: increasing pressure on the U.S. and Israel by leveraging control over oil transit to influence global prices and inflation; creating a new revenue stream, potentially exceeding $7.7 billion annually, to counter Western sanctions and support postwar reconstruction; and using transit permissions as bargaining chips in future negotiations, notably with the U.S. However, the plan faces significant practical and diplomatic challenges. Enforcing comprehensive interception and fee collection in the busy waterway, patrolled by international military forces, would be difficult. The U.S. has already countering with a blockade of Iranian ports and threats to intercept any ship paying fees, potentially strangling Iran’s oil exports and fee revenue. Broad international opposition, led by European and Gulf states, and legal controversies further complicate implementation. The proposal may ultimately serve more as a negotiating tactic than a feasible policy, with its execution remaining highly uncertain.

marsbit1h ago

Can Iran 'Control' the Strait of Hormuz?

marsbit1h ago

Vertically Integrated Capital Aggregators: How Does Web3 Build an Impregnable Moat?

"Vertical Integration Capital Aggregators: How Web3 Builds Unbreachable Moats" explores how leading Web3 protocols create competitive advantages by vertically integrating multiple ecosystem components. Unlike Web2 aggregators that focus on user demand or supplier commoditization, successful Web3 entities like Hyperliquid aggregate capital, liquidity, users, and distribution into a unified financial ecosystem. This integration allows for efficient capital deployment—Hyperliquid generates $0.30 in fees per $1 of TVL annually, compared to Aave's $0.05—while creating a defensible moat that is difficult to replicate across six simultaneous fronts. However, this model comes with risks: DeFi loses $0.50 to hacks for every $1 earned, pushing protocols toward partial centralization and closed systems for security and scalability. The token serves as a shared incentive layer, aligning stakeholders and driving value through mechanisms like buybacks. The article concludes that vertical integration, not capital itself, is the true moat, and that the industry is evolving toward pragmatic, partially centralized models to ensure economic growth and sustainability.

marsbit1h ago

Vertically Integrated Capital Aggregators: How Does Web3 Build an Impregnable Moat?

marsbit1h ago

Trading

Spot
Futures

Hot Articles

What is $BITCOIN

DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): A Comprehensive Analysis Introduction to DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a blockchain-based project operating on the Solana network, which aims to combine the characteristics of traditional precious metals with the innovation of decentralized technologies. While it shares a name with Bitcoin, often referred to as “digital gold” due to its perception as a store of value, DIGITAL GOLD is a separate token designed to create a unique ecosystem within the Web3 landscape. Its goal is to position itself as a viable alternative digital asset, although specifics regarding its applications and functionalities are still developing. What is DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a cryptocurrency token explicitly designed for use on the Solana blockchain. In contrast to Bitcoin, which provides a widely recognized value storage role, this token appears to focus on broader applications and characteristics. Notable aspects include: Blockchain Infrastructure: The token is built on the Solana blockchain, known for its capacity to handle high-speed and low-cost transactions. Supply Dynamics: DIGITAL GOLD has a maximum supply capped at 100 quadrillion tokens (100P $BITCOIN), although details regarding its circulating supply are currently undisclosed. Utility: While precise functionalities are not explicitly outlined, there are indications that the token could be utilized for various applications, potentially involving decentralized applications (dApps) or asset tokenization strategies. Who is the Creator of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? At present, the identity of the creators and development team behind DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) remains unknown. This situation is typical among many innovative projects within the blockchain space, particularly those aligning with decentralized finance and meme coin phenomena. While such anonymity may foster a community-driven culture, it intensifies concerns about governance and accountability. Who are the Investors of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? The available information indicates that DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) does not have any known institutional backers or prominent venture capital investments. The project seems to operate on a peer-to-peer model focused on community support and adoption rather than traditional funding routes. Its activity and liquidity are primarily situated on decentralized exchanges (DEXs), such as PumpSwap, rather than established centralized trading platforms, further highlighting its grassroots approach. How DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) Works The operational mechanics of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) can be elaborated on based on its blockchain design and network attributes: Consensus Mechanism: By leveraging Solana’s unique proof-of-history (PoH) combined with a proof-of-stake (PoS) model, the project ensures efficient transaction validation contributing to the network's high performance. Tokenomics: While specific deflationary mechanisms have not been extensively detailed, the vast maximum token supply implies that it may cater to microtransactions or niche use cases that are still to be defined. Interoperability: There exists the potential for integration with Solana’s broader ecosystem, including various decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms. However, the details regarding specific integrations remain unspecified. Timeline of Key Events Here is a timeline that highlights significant milestones concerning DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): 2023: The initial deployment of the token occurs on the Solana blockchain, marked by its contract address. 2024: DIGITAL GOLD gains visibility as it becomes available for trading on decentralized exchanges like PumpSwap, allowing users to trade it against SOL. 2025: The project witnesses sporadic trading activity and potential interest in community-led engagements, although no noteworthy partnerships or technical advancements have been documented as of yet. Critical Analysis Strengths Scalability: The underlying Solana infrastructure supports high transaction volumes, which could enhance the utility of $BITCOIN in various transaction scenarios. Accessibility: The potential low trading price per token could attract retail investors, facilitating wider participation due to fractional ownership opportunities. Risks Lack of Transparency: The absence of publicly known backers, developers, or an audit process may yield skepticism regarding the project's sustainability and trustworthiness. Market Volatility: The trading activity is heavily reliant on speculative behavior, which can result in significant price volatility and uncertainty for investors. Conclusion DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) emerges as an intriguing yet ambiguous project within the rapidly evolving Solana ecosystem. While it attempts to leverage the “digital gold” narrative, its departure from Bitcoin's established role as a store of value underscores the need for a clearer differentiation of its intended utility and governance structure. Future acceptance and adoption will likely depend on addressing the current opacity and defining its operational and economic strategies more explicitly. Note: This report encompasses synthesised information available as of October 2023, and developments may have transpired beyond the research period.

363 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

What is $BITCOIN

Discussions

Welcome to the HTX Community. Here, you can stay informed about the latest platform developments and gain access to professional market insights. Users' opinions on the price of BTC (BTC) are presented below.

活动图片

Top Questions