I. Macro Economy and Traditional Financial Markets
1. AI Narrative Strengthens: Anthropic Files Confidentially, Alphabet Doubles Down, Tech Stocks Hit New All-Time Highs
The three major U.S. stock indices continued their upward trend this week, sustaining a strong momentum. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.19%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.13%, and the S&P 500 increased by 0.81%. The S&P 500 has accumulated a gain of approximately 16% since April, closing higher for nine consecutive weeks, marking its longest winning streak since 2023. AI remains the core driver, with semiconductor and memory sectors continuing to lead the gains. The "arms race" narrative around AI infrastructure continues to receive positive feedback from capital markets.
The most significant event this week was Anthropic's confidential submission of its S-1 registration statement to the SEC on June 1, targeting a valuation of approximately $9,650 billion and a potential IPO fundraising of up to $75 billion. If successfully listed, it could become one of the largest IPOs in history. Simultaneously, Alphabet announced a new $80 billion AI infrastructure financing plan, with Berkshire Hathaway participating to the tune of $10 billion. These signals further reinforce market expectations regarding the long-term expansion of AI infrastructure. However, the potential liquidity drainage effect of the Anthropic IPO has also begun to draw market attention. Despite the company's annualized revenue exceeding $47 billion, it remains in a highly expansionary phase. Its current valuation essentially relies on deep discounting of future AI application layer revenue. If post-IPO market capitalization validation falls short of expectations, or if it coincides with SpaceX's entry into the public market, downward pressure on AI tech stocks could intensify significantly.
2. Geopolitics: U.S.-Israel Military Actions Escalate, U.S.-Iran Negotiation Window Persists, Energy Prices Under Pressure Again
Geopolitical dynamics diverged this week. On one hand, Trump indicated progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations, with discussions on extending the ceasefire and reopening the Strait of Hormuz still ongoing, leading to a temporary narrowing of market expectations for tail risks of a full-scale Middle East conflict. On the other hand, Israel announced an expansion of ground operations in Lebanon, and joint U.S.-Israel military actions triggered new regional tensions. Brent crude oil rose about 1.3%, returning to around $93 per barrel. The volatility in the energy market reflects the current contradiction in macro pricing: the AI-driven tech investment boom has reduced market concerns about a recession. However, unstable energy supplies, persistent core inflation, and the downward revision of U.S. Q1 GDP growth to an annualized 2.5% still leave the Federal Reserve with limited room for interest rate cuts. Copper prices also rose further as the U.S. tariff review approached, with Goldman Sachs and Citigroup successively raising their annual forecast targets.
3. New Fed Framework and Rate Expectations: Warsh Officially Takes Office, June FOMC Window Opens
New Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh officially took his oath of office on May 22. The market views the June 17 FOMC meeting under his leadership as a key node for macro pricing in the second half of the year. According to the latest CME FedWatch data, the market probability for maintaining the current rate range in June is as high as 99.4%, and the probability for July is also 93.0%, indicating extremely limited expectations for near-term rate cuts. Recent persistently high U.S. Treasury yields have, in practical terms, already tightened financial conditions, equivalent to an "implicit rate hike" of about 75 basis points, putting an implicit damper on risk asset valuations. Last week, the U.S. Dollar Index fell to 98.942, the 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 4.437%, and gold closed at $4,538, reflecting market pricing for both "higher for longer" interest rates and rising safe-haven demand. The upcoming May non-farm payrolls data will be an important variable for validating the Fed's subsequent policy path.
Additionally, the Japanese yen continued to weaken, falling 1.7% in May alone and approaching the key 160 level. Japan's Ministry of Finance used approximately $73.6 billion for intervention over the past month, but leveraged funds' bearish bets on the yen have reached their highest level since July 2024. If the Bank of Japan unexpectedly raises interest rates at its June 16 meeting, the potential unwinding of global carry trades could marginally tighten liquidity, posing potential pressure on both tech stocks and crypto assets.
II. Crypto Market
1. Market Overview: BTC Declines ~6% for the Week, ETF Outflows Reach Record Streak
The crypto market continued its correction this week, clearly diverging from the new highs in U.S. stocks. BTC opened the week around $77,267, falling to around $72,675 by June 1, a weekly decline of approximately 6%. ETH fell in sync by about 4.5%, with the ETH/BTC ratio remaining largely flat, indicating that both are experiencing similar pressure, not a unique ETH weakness. ETF-related pressure is particularly prominent. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their longest streak of net outflows since their launch in January 2024, with nine consecutive days of net outflows totaling approximately $2.8 billion. BlackRock's IBIT recorded its largest single-day net outflow of about $528 million, its second-largest daily outflow since launch. Spot Ethereum ETFs also saw 13 consecutive days of net outflows, totaling about $694 million. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell further from 39 last week to 29, entering the "fear" zone.
On the derivatives front, BTC open interest declined in sync with the price drop. The Deribit options skew re-rose to around 16%, with put option premiums nearing extreme levels, indicating a clear increase in hedging demand. The total stablecoin market cap saw a net decrease of approximately $2.758 billion over the past 7 days, and on-chain spot purchasing power remained weak. Overall, the crypto market lacks independent incremental capital drivers and remains suppressed by institutional capital flowing into AI-related tech assets.
2. RWA & On-Chain Equities: DTCC Integrates with Stellar
On May 27, DTC, a subsidiary of DTCC, announced plans to connect its tokenized asset services to the Stellar public blockchain. The service, expected to go live in the first half of 2027, will cover the tokenized issuance, corporate actions processing, and cross-chain interoperability for blue-chip stocks, ETFs, and U.S. Treasuries. The DTCC handles approximately $4.7 quadrillion in securities transactions annually. Its integration with Stellar signifies that tokenized equities are entering the core U.S. securities settlement infrastructure, rather than remaining confined to self-built issuance layers on blockchain platforms. Influenced by this news, XLM surged over 30% on the day, with its 24-hour trading volume soaring more than ninefold.
3. Long-Term Perspective: MicroStrategy Pauses Bitcoin Purchases, Anthropic IPO as Potential Liquidity Inflection Point
MicroStrategy's moves this week are noteworthy. The company sold 32 BTC between May 26-31 to pay preferred stock dividends and simultaneously paused its At-The-Market (ATM) equity offering mechanism, which it used to raise funds for Bitcoin purchases. Its current holdings stand at approximately 843,700 BTC. The company's strategy has shifted towards debt management, prioritizing the repurchase of around $1.5 billion in zero-coupon convertible notes due in 2029, temporarily halting its Bitcoin purchase operations. As a significant incremental buyer in the crypto market over the past two years, MicroStrategy's slowdown implies a reduction in short-term support.
From a broader macro perspective, Anthropic's official S-1 filing on June 1 and SpaceX's impending large-scale IPO represent a combined potential fundraising exceeding $100 billion. Historically, mega-IPOs have often caused short-term liquidity drainage in secondary markets. Both AI tech stocks and crypto assets, as high-volatility risk assets, will face pressure from capital being temporarily siphoned away. Overall, the primary macro headwind for Crypto currently stems from the persistent strengthening of the AI narrative. Against the backdrop of high-valuation tech assets like Anthropic and SpaceX entering the public market, the window for Crypto to rally independently remains limited. If an AI bubble undergoes a phase of correction, BTC may experience a significant concurrent adjustment. This very window could potentially become the formation zone for the bottom of the next major crypto cycle.
This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute any investment advice. Investment carries high risks. Please fully assess your own risk tolerance and implement strict risk controls before trading.
