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The cryptocurrency market is concluding August with an attempt at recovery following a prolonged downtrend that began back in October 2025. Over the past week, Bitcoin has shown confident growth, aided by a number of macroeconomic and market factors. However, analysts agree that it is too early to talk about a trend reversal — bearish risks remain, and sideways price movement within a broad range is expected in the coming months.
Bitcoin's current dynamics fit into the classic four-year cycles, which historically have formed alternating bull and bear trends. Although there is no unified methodology for calculating these cycles, they are all somehow based on Bitcoin halving (the programmed reduction in the rate of new coin issuance coded into its protocol).
Historically, the cycles between halvings have coincided with price cycles in the crypto market, and statistically, many key players predict the bottom of this cycle to occur in the autumn. Thus, from October 2026, when the previous peak of $126K was reached, 12 months will have passed, which roughly aligns with the statistics of past cycles.
"That is, following cycle theory, recent levels could indicate the formation of a local bottom and an attempt to break the downtrend that started in October 2025," noted Nikita Bredikhin, Lead Investment Analyst at Go Invest, pointing out that there are other factors shaping the price in current conditions.
Macroeconomics and Politics
At the same time, Bredikhin emphasizes that despite the crypto market's rise at the end of August, external macroeconomic factors continue to pressure the crypto market: high interest rates and the hawkish rhetoric of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) persist amid uncertainty regarding monetary policy.
Meanwhile, Oleg Kalmanovich, an analyst at Neomarkets, also draws attention to positive shifts in macroeconomics. He cited July inflation data as an example: "If this trend continues, the likelihood of the Fed softening its policy will increase, which could become an additional positive factor for BTC and other risky assets."
The geopolitical factor is also making its adjustments. In Kalmanovich's opinion, the continuation of the conflict around Iran is capable of maintaining high oil prices and inflationary pressure, whereas a reduction in tension, on the contrary, could give the Fed more room to ease policy.
Competition with AI and Semiconductors
Another potential pressure factor for the crypto market, according to Bredikhin, is competition with other asset classes — primarily the semiconductor industry and artificial intelligence developers. He noted that mining companies are massively selling off accumulated coin reserves and actively transitioning to servicing computing for AI, as it is a more profitable and predictable business with growing demand.
The same trend was observed among institutional investors, as Bredikhin reminded: traditional assets showed higher returns and noticeably higher volatility. The expert believes this is precisely why recent months have seen outflows from spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and a decline in trading interest in the crypto market.
At the same time, Kalmanovich points out that since the beginning of August, Bitcoin ETFs have attracted over $3.5 billion (as of the 28th), indicating a recovery in institutional demand.
Bitcoin Price Forecasts
From a technical standpoint, both experts do not expect explosive growth. Kalmanovich highlights a strong resistance level at $86K, from which a correction towards the accumulation zone of $74K is possible. And if this support holds, after the correction concludes, the path opens to $96K and further to $100K.
Meanwhile, Bredikhin gave a broader range for sideways movement: "I assume that Bitcoin will enter a broad sideways trend in the range of $60–85K and will continue to trade as such until the Fed's rhetoric softens or interest in the semiconductor manufacturing and AI technology sectors subsides."
Earlier, experts gave similar price forecasts within a broad price range of $62-100K, adding US crypto market regulation as a factor for growth in the autumn.
