Bitcoin and Gold Diverge as Iran Conflict Shifts ETF Flows

TheNewsCryptoPublished on 2026-03-13Last updated on 2026-03-13

Abstract

According to a JPMorgan investor note, the traditional correlation between Bitcoin and gold has significantly broken down due to the Iran conflict, with the two safe-haven assets moving in opposite directions. While geopolitical instability typically drives unified flows into havens, capital is now shifting toward Bitcoin. Since February 27, major gold ETFs have seen outflows of about 2.7% of assets under management. In contrast, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) recorded inflows of approximately 1.5% in the same period. This reversal indicates growing institutional preference for Bitcoin ETFs over gold, despite crypto's higher volatility. JPMorgan also noted rising short interest in IBIT amid the conflict, even as ETF inflows continue.

The link between Bitcoin (BTC) and gold has broken majorly due to the Iran conflict, as per the note to investors by JPMorgan. As geopolitical instability normally influences a unified bid for safe havens, the two assets are now shifting in opposite directions.

This separation indicates a prominent shift in how capital is treating “digital gold” as contrasted with the real thing. Rather than moving in together as crisis surrounds, investors are aggressively moving capital, making a clear winner in the ETF market since late February.

Since the tensions surged on February 27, report a stark divergence in capital flows. The biggest gold ETF has bled outflows, estimated to be around 2.7% of its assets under management.

Contrasting The Data

Contrasting this, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) absorbed inflows totalling around 1.5% of its assets in the same window. The analysts of JPMorgan, directed by Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtziglou, underscored in their latest note to investors that this reverses the trend witnessed earlier in the year when gold funds held the advantage.

The data is obvious. While gold has historically been the default safety trade at the time of Middle East tensions, capital is now voting for Bitcoin exposure. Institutional placing normally indicates a shift away from bullion in favour of the spot Bitcoin ETFs, regardless of the greater volatility inherent in crypto assets.

It is interesting to note that IBIT inflows since the inception of 2024 are now around double the overall accumulation witnessed by GLD, further sticking to the shift in dominance among exchange-traded products.

JPMorgan also highlights that while spot Bitcoin ETFs are witnessing inflows, institutional derivatives markets give an alarming alarm. Hedge funds seem to be diminishing direct Bitcoin exposure even as ETF buyers step up.

Short interest in IBIT has really surged since the conflict started, while GLD short interest slipped.

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TagsBitcoinETFGold

Related Questions

QAccording to JPMorgan's note, what major event caused the link between Bitcoin and gold to break?

AThe Iran conflict.

QWhich asset, gold ETF or Bitcoin ETF (IBIT), experienced outflows since the tensions surged on February 27?

AThe biggest gold ETF experienced outflows.

QWhat was the estimated percentage of assets under management that the biggest gold ETF bled in outflows?

AApproximately 2.7%.

QHow do the inflows into BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) since the start of 2024 compare to those of GLD?

AThey are about double the overall accumulation witnessed by GLD.

QWhat trend did JPMorgan analysts note in the institutional derivatives markets regarding hedge funds and Bitcoin exposure?

AHedge funds seem to be diminishing direct Bitcoin exposure even as ETF buyers step up.

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363 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

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