Axie Infinity erases September losses – But AXS price faces THIS threat

ambcryptoPublished on 2026-01-22Last updated on 2026-01-22

Abstract

The gaming token sector, including Axie Infinity (AXS), posted strong gains despite broader crypto market pressure, with AXS erasing losses since mid-September. However, the rally shows signs of exhaustion. The RSI indicates overbought conditions, suggesting a potential near-term pullback. Spot market activity reveals a shift, with $91,000 in outflows and a 21% drop in trading volume, signaling weakening momentum. While derivatives data shows lingering bullish sentiment in futures, the negative funding rate points to growing short positions. If spot demand softens further alongside negative funding, AXS could face increased risk of a deeper correction.

While the broader crypto market remained under pressure, gaming tokens stayed relatively insulated and posted strong gains.

The sector recorded a monthly weighted average increase of roughly 40%, with AXS among the top performers.

Axie Infinity’s [AXS] recent rally erased losses accumulated since the 12th of September 2025, pushing many holders back to break-even. However, momentum indicators suggested the advance may be nearing exhaustion, raising pullback risk.

Investor positioning raises caution

Investor positioning in AXS grew increasingly aggressive during the rally. That shift raised questions about the uptrend’s durability.

At press time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) moved back above 70, placing AXS in overbought territory. Such conditions historically preceded short-term price tops rather than sustained breakouts.

The TradingView chart showed RSI remained elevated as price accelerated. That divergence increased the probability of near-term mean reversion.

That said, downside risk appeared contained for now. The Accumulation/Distribution indicator dipped modestly but stayed firmly positive.

This suggested selling pressure increased, yet broader market structure remained supportive. Any pullback would likely remain corrective unless accumulation weakened further.

Spot investors pull back

Spot market activity offered one of the clearest signals of shifting sentiment, with capital beginning to exit the market.

Exchange Netflows showed Spot traders sold roughly $91,000 worth of AXS over the past 24 hours.

That marked a clear shift from the steady buying observed during the recent advance. Spot participants often provide structural support, making their retreat notable.

On top of that, trading activity slowed sharply. CoinGlass data showed volume fell 21% to about $2 billion, a decline exceeding $400 million.

When price advances on falling volume, it often signals weakening momentum. Historically, such conditions have preceded either consolidation or corrective price moves.

Derivatives market signals divergence

Derivatives data presented a mixed picture. The Taker Buy/Sell Ratio showed that bullish sentiment still dominated in the perpetual Futures market, with taker buy orders outweighing sell orders.

However, funding data told a different story. The OI-Weighted Funding Rate turned decisively negative, signaling that short positions outweighed longs.

CoinGlass data showed the metric printed -0.1286% at press time. That meant bearish traders paid funding to maintain exposure.

If negative funding persisted alongside softening spot demand, downside pressure could build. That alignment would increase the risk of a deeper corrective phase for AXS.


Final Thoughts

  • Axie Infinity (AXS) erased post-September losses as gaming tokens outperformed, lifting the price back toward key resistance.
  • Overbought RSI, weakening spot demand, and negative OI-Weighted Funding Rate suggest momentum may fade near-term.

Related Questions

QWhat was the performance of gaming tokens like Axie Infinity (AXS) compared to the broader crypto market recently?

AGaming tokens remained relatively insulated from the broader crypto market's pressure and posted strong gains, with the sector recording a monthly weighted average increase of roughly 40%.

QWhat key technical indicator suggests that AXS might be in overbought territory and facing a potential pullback?

AThe Relative Strength Index (RSI) moved back above 70, placing AXS in overbought territory, which historically has preceded short-term price tops.

QWhat shift in spot market activity signals a change in sentiment for AXS?

AExchange Netflows showed that spot traders sold approximately $91,000 worth of AXS over the past 24 hours, marking a clear shift from the steady buying observed during the recent advance.

QWhat does a negative OI-Weighted Funding Rate indicate for the AXS derivatives market?

AA negative OI-Weighted Funding Rate, which was -0.1286% at press time, signals that short positions outweigh longs, meaning bearish traders are paying funding to maintain their exposure.

QWhat are the main factors mentioned that could lead to a deeper corrective phase for AXS?

AThe alignment of persistent negative funding rates alongside softening spot demand could build downside pressure and increase the risk of a deeper corrective phase for AXS.

Related Reads

Latest Interview with Cyber Godfather Tibo: Dedicated Physical Button for Resets, 'I Reset Whenever I Want'

Tibo, the head of OpenAI's Codex project, recently discussed AI's future and OpenAI's strategy in an interview. He revealed that Codex and ChatGPT are set to merge into a single, highly personalized AGI that adapts its interface to individual users. The future of AI Agents, he believes, lies in making complex mechanisms like skill management "disappear," creating a seamless partner that understands context and goals. As models grow more powerful, local hardware will become a bottleneck, pushing agents to the cloud for greater computational resources. He highlighted the upcoming "Ultra Fast" mode, which will significantly reduce response times, shifting workflows back to real-time interaction and "flow" states rather than constant context switching. OpenAI's focus, according to Tibo, isn't just on building the strongest models but on delivering powerful capabilities to as many people as possible, emphasizing broad distribution, community involvement, and lowering barriers to use. Tibo also touched on OpenAI's culture of rapid iteration and empowerment, contrasting it with his past experience at Google. He confirmed that OpenAI is already practicing "recursive self-improvement," using powerful models to optimize infrastructure, creating a feedback loop of increasing capability and efficiency. The interview concluded with his thoughts on future human-AI interaction, which he envisions as increasingly natural, multimodal, and voice-first, adapting to human communication styles rather than the reverse. He also humorously noted the existence of a physical "reset" button for user quotas, symbolizing OpenAI's user-centric approach of compensating users during service issues.

marsbit2m ago

Latest Interview with Cyber Godfather Tibo: Dedicated Physical Button for Resets, 'I Reset Whenever I Want'

marsbit2m ago

IOSG | EIP-8363 Quantitative Review: Slashing Staking 'Subsidies'—What Does Ethereum Want in Return?

**Title: IOSG | EIP-8363 Quantitative Review: Cutting Staking "Subsidies"—What Does Ethereum Aim to Gain?** **Summary:** EIP-8363 proposes a mechanism to progressively destroy a larger portion of validator rewards as the staking ratio increases, reaching 100% destruction when 50% of ETH supply is staked. This analysis models its impact on issuance, yield, and staking equilibrium, investigates whether ETH's yield truly explains its price, quantifies the on-chain economy's dependence on this yield, and presents conclusions. Key findings: 1. EIP-1559's fee-burn mechanism has become largely ineffective, with burn rates down 98% since 2022. Issuance policy is now Ethereum's primary remaining lever over ETH supply. 2. At the current staking level (~35% of supply), EIP-8363 would cut issuance by ~58.6% and staking APR by ~56.4%, not eliminate it entirely. The mechanism is self-limiting; under reasonable yield thresholds, the system would stabilize at 26–34% staking with 0.3–0.5% annual issuance. 3. No statistically significant correlation exists between historical staking yield changes and ETH price movements. The natural 37% yield decline since 2023 showed no detectable price impact. 4. The on-chain economy's direct dependence on this yield is limited. Liquid staking tokens (LSTs) like wstETH are crucial as collateral (e.g., 34.2% in major lending markets), but their utility persists as long as yield is positive. Staking-focused ETFs represent a tiny fraction (0.19% of supply) of current demand. 5. The debate is essentially a zero-sum wealth redistribution: cutting ~$1.55B in annual issuance transfers value from concentrated staker/intermediary interests (35% of holders) to the diffuse majority of non-staking holders (65%). The proposal is economically rational but faces high political hurdles due to this concentrated opposition. Verdict: The proposal is mildly bullish for ETH (reducing a structural sell-pressure) but bearish for staking intermediaries/protocols. However, its passage is unlikely due to governance dynamics favoring concentrated, organized opposition over diffuse benefits.

marsbit3m ago

IOSG | EIP-8363 Quantitative Review: Slashing Staking 'Subsidies'—What Does Ethereum Want in Return?

marsbit3m ago

BTC Returns to $80,000, Crypto-Related Stocks Finally Stand Tall

Bitcoin Breaches $80,000 Mark, Boosting Crypto-Related Stocks With the crypto market heating up, Bitcoin has surged back above the $80,000 level after more than a hundred days, posting nearly a 30% gain in a week. This rally has ignited bullish sentiment across the board. Concurrently, crypto-related stocks, which had been experiencing a months-long slump, are staging a powerful comeback, led by key players in digital asset treasuries, exchanges, and trading platforms. Many of these stocks have seen substantial rebounds from their recent lows. Leading the charge is MicroStrategy (MSTR), a major Bitcoin treasury company, whose stock has rebounded nearly 50% from its 52-week low. Close behind is Bitmine (BMNR), the largest public Ethereum treasury, with a staggering 88.6% rebound. Other notable performers include the stablecoin issuer Circle (CRCL), up 75.5%, and the Ethereum-focused company Sharplink (SBET), up 83.7%. While the "crypto market proxy" Coinbase (COIN) has rebounded 29%, its unique position has faced some dilution from new market entrants. Robinhood (HOOD), bolstered by strong Q2 earnings and its expanding crypto ecosystem, has risen 63.2%. The exchange Bullish (BLSH) is up 45.8%. Perhaps the most dramatic rebound belongs to Hyperliquid Strategies (PURR), linked to the Hyperliquid ecosystem, which has skyrocketed over 254% from its low. The analysis highlights that most of these stocks hit their lows around late June, marking a market bottom. It emphasizes the strategy of focusing on leading companies and notes that while the rebound is strong, many stocks remain significantly below their yearly highs. Ultimately, these public companies serve as leveraged proxies for underlying crypto assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum in the current market upswing.

Odaily星球日报14m ago

BTC Returns to $80,000, Crypto-Related Stocks Finally Stand Tall

Odaily星球日报14m ago

Trading

Spot
活动图片