‘Altcoin season isn’t gone’ – Why 2026 may be the year to watch

ambcryptoPublished on 2025-12-21Last updated on 2025-12-21

Abstract

The crypto market anticipates a potential altcoin season in 2026, though Bitcoin currently maintains dominance with 59.6% market share. Historical patterns show altcoins are near long-term support levels against BTC, similar to pre-rally phases, but projections suggest a delayed breakout until 2026. The altcoin season index remains low at 35, indicating patience is required before altcoins outperform. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes offers a contrasting perspective, arguing altcoin seasons are always occurring in some part of the market. He suggests traders feel they "missed" gains because they held the wrong assets, citing examples like Hyperliquid and Solana’s significant rallies. Hayes warns against expecting past cycles to repeat identically, emphasizing that new tokens and narratives drive each cycle’s winners. While institutional and retail interest may shift to Ethereum and major altcoins for yield by 2026, the current capital concentration in BTC underscores a waiting game for broader altseason momentum.

Altseason is once again the market’s favorite promise, with expectations out to 2026. But for now, Bitcoin [BTC] is still firmly in charge.

Meanwhile, BitmMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes argues that altcoin gains never really disappear... they just move. The question, then, is not when altseason arrives, but where it’s already in action.

2026 – Year of the altcoins?

The crypto community is already looking into the next year for the light. The following chart shows why: altcoin rallies in 2018 and 2021, followed by long periods of underperformance.

Currently, altcoins are once again near long-term support levels against BTC, similar to past pre-altseason phases. But instead of an immediate breakout, many projections now point to 2026 as the next major window.

The charts say altseason can happen, but right now, patience is being priced in.

That caution shows.

At press time, Bitcoin dominance has climbed back to around 59.6%, holding near recent highs rather than rolling over.

Capital is still concentrated in BTC. At the same time, the altcoin season index was at 35, well below the threshold that brings altcoin outperformance.

Altseasons only start once BTC dominance breaks down decisively and the index sustains higher readings.

As Kevin Rusher, founder of RAAC, told AMBCrypto,

“... institutions and retail investors alike seek yield in the DeFi ecosystem of the world’s computer. And so, as we head into 2026, investors can rely on ETH along with the other big guns.”

Altseason is always around, but...

Still, Arthur Hayes has a different way to look at the market. In his view, altcoin season isn’t a single moment everyone waits for; it’s something that’s always happening somewhere.

The reason many traders feel like they’ve “missed it,” he argued, is that they owned the wrong assets. Hayes said in a recent podcast,

“There is always an altcoin season happening... and [if you’re] always saying altcoin season isn’t there, [it’s] because you didn’t own what went up...”

He warned against expecting the next cycle to mirror past ones, where the same tokens and narratives repeated. This time, the winners are different.

“Again, there’s been altcoin season. You just didn’t participate in it.”

He mentioned examples like Hyperliquid, which surged from a low single-digit launch price to massive gains, and Solana, which rebounded sharply after collapsing in 2022.

Final Thoughts

Bitcoin still dominates today, but altseason may happen in 2026.
Arthur Hayes notes that altcoin gains are already happening though.

Hyperliquid Sued by Two Major Traditional Exchanges

Hyperliquid, a cryptocurrency derivatives platform, is facing formal complaints from two major traditional exchanges, CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) and ICE (Intercontinental Exchange, parent company of the New York Stock Exchange). The firms have jointly approached the U.S. Congress and the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission), urging stricter regulatory oversight of Hyperliquid's operations. The action highlights growing tensions between established traditional financial institutions and emerging crypto-native platforms in the derivatives market.

链捕手2h ago

Hyperliquid Sued by Two Major Traditional Exchanges

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marsbit3h ago

Breaking: OpenAI Undergoes Major Reorganization, President Brockman Assumes Command

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Two Survival Structures of Market Makers and Arbitrageurs

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链捕手3h ago

Two Survival Structures of Market Makers and Arbitrageurs

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Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Basis Remains High Within Biggest Supply Cluster

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Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Basis Remains High Within Biggest Supply Cluster

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Who Will Define the Rules of the AI Era? Anthropic Discusses the 2028 US-China AI Landscape

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marsbit5h ago

Who Will Define the Rules of the AI Era? Anthropic Discusses the 2028 US-China AI Landscape

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