The beginning of August turned out to be a period of noticeable pressure from sellers for Bitcoin. Within a few days, retail investors sold approximately 32,000 BTC, realizing losses. This was announced on August 3rd to "Izvestia" by financial analyst at Bitbanker, Andrey Poroshin.
"While private investors are exiting the market amid emotional selling, long-term participants are gradually accumulating the supply. Historically, such periods do not always become an immediate signal for growth, but it is precisely in these phases that the foundation for the next upward cycle is often formed," the expert noted.
One of the main factors for the crypto market this week will be American macroeconomic statistics. On Monday, investors are awaiting the publication of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI business activity index. If the indicator turns out to be above 50 points, this will indicate the resilience of the industrial sector of the American economy. However, strong data could simultaneously reduce the likelihood of an imminent easing of Federal Reserve (Fed) policy, which would become a restraining factor for risky assets, including Bitcoin.
Another important event, added the expert, will be Friday's publication of the Non-Farm Payrolls employment report. This data traditionally influences market expectations regarding the Fed's further decisions and can cause increased volatility.
According to Poroshin, the fundamental situation surrounding Bitcoin remains ambiguous. The asset is under pressure from the high cost of money in the US and selling by a portion of retail investors. At the same time, the cryptocurrency is trading below the production cost for most American miners, which is estimated in the range of $73,000–$75,000.
Historically, a prolonged stay of BTC below the production cost level is rare and gradually attracts long-term buyers, the analyst noted. From a technical point of view, the situation remains difficult for now: sellers maintain the initiative, and buyers have not been able to regain control of the market.
For the coming days, the expert considers the base scenario to be a decline in Bitcoin to the $60,000–$61.5 thousand area, where a strong demand zone is located. A technical rebound is possible from this level, in his opinion.
Deputy Finance Minister Ivan Chebeskov on June 16th stated that unqualified investors in Russia will soon be able to legally buy Bitcoin, Ethereum, and popular stablecoins. Furthermore, the deputy minister clarified that a limit of 300,000 rubles per year through one intermediary has been proposed for "non-qualified" investors.
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