FTX 突发性死亡后,Crypto 行业将面临大洗牌

DeFi之道Published on 2022-11-10Last updated on 2022-11-10

Abstract

FTX 的突发性死亡,引爆了 Crypto 行业的新一轮崩盘,有人便形容称,这是属于 Crypto 圈子的雷曼时刻。

FTX 的突发性死亡,引爆了 Crypto 行业的新一轮崩盘,有人便形容称,这是属于 Crypto 圈子的雷曼时刻。

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根据外媒传言称,FTX 的资产负债表缺口达到了 80 亿美元,以当前的 16000 美元的 BTC 市场价计算,这相当于 50 万 BTC,而在 Crypto 历史上,仅有 Mt.gox 事件损失的 BTC 超过这一数量。

而 FTX 崩盘事件,损失资金的不仅仅是 FTX 平台的用户,不少顶级投资机构也因此栽了跟头,例如黑石、安大略养老基金、红杉、Paradigm 、软银、Tiger Global、Circle、Multicoin 等。

除此之外,FTX ventures 还参与投资了包括 Aptos、Layerzero、offchain labs(Arbitrum) 、Mysten labs (Sui)、Solana、Yuga labs、Polygon 在内的诸多明星 Crypto 项目。

而 FTX 的崩盘,还会导致美国监管机进一步收紧对行业的限制……

(注:美国马萨诸塞州参议员 Elizabeth Warren 表示,美国政府需要更积极的执法,她将继续推动 SEC 执法以保护消费者和金融稳定。)

对此,Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong评论称:“FTX.com 是一家不受 SEC 监管的离岸交易所,问题是美国 SEC 未能在美国建立监管明确性,因此许多美国投资者(以及 95% 的交易活动)都转向了海外,为此惩罚美国公司是没有意义的。”

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种种迹象表明,Crypto 行业的冬天要被迫延长了。

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当然,作为行业参与者,在应该悲观的时刻,我们也需要思考有哪些点是值得我们去乐观的,这也是写本文的初衷。

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1、首先,最重要的一点是,FTX 的暴雷,是传统金融普遍存在的挪用用户资金问题导致的,在 Crypto 历史上,有很多交易平台或理财平台暴雷事件都是因为类似的原因,这也是为何很多人会把 “Not Your Keys, Not Your Coins” 这句话挂在嘴边,从另一个角度来看,这次事件也印证了 Crypto 去中心化的意义和价值,从长远来看,比特币等去中心化加密资产是值得更多人拥有的,而 DEX 等去中心化金融(DeFi)基础设施,更应该被重视。

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2、像 SBF 这样贪婪的价值提取者,对行业来说,早一些暴雷也不失为一件好事。

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3、这次事件再次很好地提醒了我们,即便是顶级 VC 机构,也会犯很低级的错误,不要过度迷信。

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4、行业将面临重新洗牌,这会伴随着新的机会。

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5、很多之前因为 FTX 等顶级机构带火的叙事,接下来会很困难,我们也无需再因此而焦虑了。

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6、游客来的快,去的也快,而接下来的注意力,可以更集中于 Crypto 纯粹主义以及介于两者之间的人和项目之上。

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7、延长的熊市,持续 build 的人和项目是更值得信赖的,这可以帮助我们识别真正的 Gem。

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8、失败的经历是宝贵的,比如杠杆、托管、梭哈等,未来再遇到类似的坑,大概率就能避开。

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9、认可 Crypto 价值的人会越来越多,这意味着 Crypto 牛市还是会来的,这个阶段,耐心比什么策略都更重要。

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