【重磅解读】BTC盗币账户抛压下降,RARI主力减仓

火币资讯Published on 2022-11-01Last updated on 2022-11-03

Abstract

RARI短线飙升100%,主力减仓。

1、BTC有望加速回升

日K线图显示,BTC价格微幅调整以后,反弹走势即将再次开启。随着成交量继续维持高位运行,BTC价格在2万美元的支撑变动异常有效。 压力位方面,22500美元、25000美元都是BTC需要确认的突破点位。

2、BTC抛压下降

BTC维持强势基础,是抛售压力相应降低以及多头实力持续增长。从抛压减少的迹象来看,Plustoken账户的混币和出售在近期已经显著增加,使得相应的被盗BTC数量大幅度减少。从124649枚BTC下降到了63434枚BTC,减少的BTC数量达到了5万枚BTC以上。因此,对应的BTC的交易抛压相应的降低以后,推动了BTC价格筑底回升。值得关注的是,近期Plustoken账户的交易用BTC数量大幅度下降,并且存量BTC下降到历史低位,提升价格上涨压力降低,关注上涨预期。

3、ETH准备拉升

日K线图显示,ETH价格以及处在二次回升的姿态,价格随时可能出现拉升表现。目前ETH短线回撤空间有限,价格仅在2个交易日中回撤4%,就已经开始出现止跌迹象。从ETH目前的运行区间判断,短线上涨的重要压力位在1910美元。斐波那契61.8%对应的1910美元的抛压已经在8月13日ETH开始回撤得到体现。因此,等待ETH价格涨幅得到20%以上再关注重要的抛压变化。

4、RARI主力减仓趋势确认

随着RARI在低位飙升达到了70%,最大2日内振幅高达100%,RARI在涨幅上已经排名靠前。同时,关注到RARI的交易量放大空间较多,同时又是再次脉冲放量,不排除RARI短线大涨以后出现交易量不足的情况。实际上,30分钟K线已经提升了抛压增长信号,关注价格回调表现。

5、RARI主力减仓

从持币数量上看,RARI的持币前10位的主力减仓 趋势明确。从10月3日的77.49%下降到了11月1日的72.19%,降幅达到了5.3个百分点。因此,对RARI价格上涨的基本判断,或许首先应该关注抛压变化,然后才是低吸机会。

Related Reads

Second Half of U.S. Crypto Policy: The Clarity Act Aims for 60 Votes, CFTC's "One-Person Commission" Becomes Biggest Variable

In a pivotal year for US crypto policy, the "CLARITY Act" is advancing in the Senate but faces a high hurdle, needing 60 votes to pass. Key challenges include bridging partisan divides on ethics and swaying undecided Republican senators within a tight legislative calendar of only about 40 working days. The policy "second half" involves intense negotiations on a broader framework for Web3 and DeFi, including crypto tax reforms and the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act. A significant uncertainty is the understaffed CFTC, operating with four commissioner vacancies, which complicates regulatory clarity. Meanwhile, the departure of key "crypto champions"—SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce and Senator Cynthia Lummis—will impact ongoing policy efforts. Industry experts are cautiously optimistic but realistic. Sara K. Weed notes that while progress is being made, CLARITY is unlikely to pass this Congress, pushing agencies like the SEC and CFTC to provide more guidance. Sulolit Mukherjee suggests meaningful crypto tax legislation is more likely to be attached to larger must-pass bills. Rashan Colbert discusses the jurisdictional debate over prediction markets, emphasizing the need for a regulatory framework that fosters their development as financial tools rather than treating them broadly as gambling. The clock is ticking, but opportunities remain for substantive progress through continued bipartisan dialogue and pragmatic efforts.

marsbit1h ago

Second Half of U.S. Crypto Policy: The Clarity Act Aims for 60 Votes, CFTC's "One-Person Commission" Becomes Biggest Variable

marsbit1h ago

Research Report Analysis: Morgan Stanley Details SanDisk SNDK, The Truth About Cloud Data Center Pricing Power and AI Inference Benefits

Morgan Stanley raised its price target for SanDisk (SNDK) from $1100 to $1750 on June 22, maintaining an Overweight rating. The upgrade is driven by AI inference demand reshaping the NAND market, particularly for KV Cache and context window storage in cloud data centers. These cloud clients exhibit price inelasticity and sign long-term contracts, granting SanDisk significant pricing power. SanDisk's New Business Model (NBM) agreements, covering over one-third of FY27 bit shipments with 3-5 year terms and fixed price/price collar structures, are crucial. They are projected to sustain gross margins around 80% even at floor prices, providing a buffer against cyclical downturns. Morgan Stanley forecasts gross margins to surge from 30.3% in FY25 to 86.7% in FY27e. With NAND supply expected to remain tight into 2026/2027 and cloud/data centers becoming the largest end-market, SanDisk holds supply-side pricing power. The company targets 15-19% bit growth via technology transitions, not capacity expansion. Revenue is projected to grow ~6.6x from FY25 to FY27, with EPS rising from $2.74 to $14.73, driven by high-margin cloud business. Key upside catalysts include faster enterprise SSD adoption and edge AI growth. Downside risks involve slower industry growth, competitor capex increases, market share loss, and competition from Chinese players like YMTC. The investment thesis rests on AI-driven structural demand, NBM's margin protection, and sustained supply tightness. The $1750 target implies ~28x FY27e P/E.

marsbit2h ago

Research Report Analysis: Morgan Stanley Details SanDisk SNDK, The Truth About Cloud Data Center Pricing Power and AI Inference Benefits

marsbit2h ago

Trading

Spot
Futures
活动图片