Топ-3 биткоин-индикатора, за которыми стоит следить

BeInCryptoPublished on 2022-10-18Last updated on 2022-10-18

Abstract

Редакция BeInCrypto рассмотрела три основных индикатора для биткоина, которые играют немаловажную роль при развитии криптовалюты.

Крупнейшая по рыночной капитализации криптовалюта биткоин (BTC) уже давно сформировала целый спектр различных офчейн и ончейн-индикаторов. Блокчейн-исследователи и трейдеры используют их по-разному: кто-то для анализа конъюнктуры рынка, а кто-то для построения инвестиционных стратегий. Редакция BeInCrypto рассмотрела три наиболее важных индикатора ведущей криптовалюты.

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Индикатор доминирования биткоина

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Индикатор доминирования биткоина показывает соотношение между рыночной капитализацией биткоина и всего рынка криптовалют. Фактически этот индикатор дает понять, насколько инвесторы уверены в биткоине.

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Источник: buybitcoinworldwide.com

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Чем выше процент доминирования биткоина, тем больше денег на всем рынке криптовалют сфокусировано именно на нем. Если же показатель падает, это может означать, что инвесторы либо перешли на альткоины (любые другие криптовалюты помимо биткоина), либо же вовсе ушли с рынка.

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Индикатор 200-недельной скользящей средней биткоина

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200-недельная скользящая средняя (англ. 200WMA) используется трейдерами и рыночными аналитиками для определения долгосрочных рыночных тенденций. Для расчета графика берутся данные котировок за сорок недель торговли.

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Источник: lookintobitcoin.com

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До тех пор, пока курс актива находится выше скользящей средней, сохраняется восходящий тренд монеты. Если же котировки падают ниже показателей 200WMA, это может сигнализировать о потенциальном развороте тренда. В истории биткоина курс криптовалюты лишь пару раз опускался ниже 200WMA, но всегда возвращался выше индикатора в течение пары недель.

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В данный момент курс биткоина находится ниже 200WMA вот уже второй месяц подряд, что является абсолютным рекордом для криптовалюты. Чтобы быть выше 200WMA, криптовалюта должна преодолеть курс хотя бы в $23 580.

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Индикатор соотношения рыночной капитализации к реализованной

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Легендарный индикатор соотношения рыночной капитализации к реализованной (MVRV). Исторически именно этот индикатор давал понять, когда биткоин переоценен, а когда, наоборот, лишен внимания инвесторов. Есть также модификация индикатора под названием MVRV Z-Score. Она отличается от оригинала тем, что отображает определенные зоны перекупленности или перепроданности актива.

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Источник: lookintobitcoin.com

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Как видно на графике выше, каждый раз, когда биткоин падал в «светло-зеленую зону» — он обязательно из нее выбирался. Однако этого же нельзя сказать про «красную зону» перепроданности. Например, на графике видно, что в рамках цикла 2020-2024 биткоин едва ли дорос до этой зоны в феврале 2021 года, однако почти сразу обвалился. Даже последующее краткосрочное обновление биткоина в ноябре того же года не помогло индикатору MVRV Z-Score вернуться к прежним значениям.

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Денис Омельченко для BeInCrypto.

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