【每日投研焦点】BTC破位风险加剧,关注定投机会

火必研究院Published on 2022-03-15Last updated on 2022-03-16

Abstract

随着BTC等主流币缩量调整延续,目前行情跟随全球金融市场下跌的风险加大。

随着BTC等主流币缩量调整延续,目前行情跟随全球金融市场下跌的风险加大。交易方面需要关注仓位,留有足够低吸资金,摊低长期持币持币。

1、BTC价格:持续回撤,量价表现低迷

BTC价格在日K线级别上表现非常低迷,波动率持续下降的过程中,成交量同样处在萎缩趋势中。也就是说,BTC如果维持调整的走势,很可能在近期出现破位下跌的表现。

布林线方面,BTC持续低于布林线中轨期间,调整已经超过1个月,BTC底部特征依然没有确认。近期1月底和2月底的放量持续时间较短,BTC换手并不充分。这说明,在整体市场活跃度不高背景下,多头确认底部买点还需时间。

BTC日K线

2、BTC投资者融资利率:利率低位运行,主动买盘有限

从BTC投资者的融资利率来看,该利率在近期持续低于0的情况下,意味着投资者买入成本非常低,主动买盘还不足以推动BTC大幅度上涨。从这个角度判断,BTC更容易在抛盘增加的情况下回撤,因此低价买入的时机还比较多。

BTC融资成本低于0

3、ETH价格:调整结束迹象出现

随着ETH价格以双顶反转形态见顶365日均线上方,价格回撤的趋势得到延续。从目前来看,ETH的类似三角形形态接近跌破支撑,交易量萎缩的情况下,收盘回撤就会进一步提示抛售信号。365日均线为投资者1年内平均成本价,在该均线下方,调整会成为价格常态。

ETH触及三角形下限

4、热门板块和币种:ETH2.0质押、IoTeX生态等表现较好,EGLD和RUNE短线上涨

随着BTC和ETH等主流币回撤到短线低位,反弹空间也越来越小,上涨的板块数量极少。ETH2.0质押、IoTeX生态等少数板块的少数币种表现较好,代表币种EGLD和RUNE反弹空间增加。

消息面方面,俄乌局势较为反复,但是缓和趋势值得注意。

金融市场方面整体动荡态势持续,大宗商品价格指数CRB持续回撤,美元指数回调。这说明,全球市场依然表现出颓势,风险资产短线机会减少。BTC和ETH等主流币面临随时变盘的可能,缩量调整期间目标向下,近期应更多关注持币风险。

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