S&P 500 Hits 7712 Points, Trend Remains Bullish
The S&P 500 index has reached 7712 points, maintaining a predominantly bullish price structure. Large-cap tech stocks and earnings expectations are supporting the index, with short-term capital still willing to buy on dips. However, with the index at elevated levels, its sensitivity to macroeconomic data and interest rate expectations has significantly increased.
September Historically Averages a 0.7% Decline
Historical seasonality indicates that September is typically a weaker month for U.S. stocks, with the S&P 500 averaging a decline of approximately 0.7%. Seasonality does not guarantee a drop every year, but against a backdrop of high valuations and crowded positioning, it can amplify volatility triggered by negative news.
The Real Period of Risk Often Emerges Mid-Month
The market's true point of vigilance is not the first trading day of September, but rather the period after mid-month. Factors such as portfolio rebalancing, macroeconomic data releases, and policy expectations often converge to impact the market during this phase. If the index remains at high levels in the first half of the month but experiences declining trading volume, the risk of a subsequent pullback increases.
Holding the Breakout Level Is More Important Than Chasing Highs
For retail investors, whether the area around 7712 points can transition from resistance to support is more crucial than intraday new highs. As long as this key breakout level holds, the medium-term trend remains bullish. If the price falls back below the breakout zone accompanied by rising volatility, one should be prepared for the seasonal weakness to evolve into a deeper correction.
