日本加息成焦点:比特币过往反应令交易员紧张

bitcoinistPublished on 2025-12-15Last updated on 2025-12-15

Abstract

日本央行预计将在12月18-19日的会议上加息25个基点至0.75%,这将是自1995年以来的最高水平,标志着日本持续退出超宽松货币政策。这一事件引发加密货币交易员的担忧,因为自2024年以来,日本每次加息都恰逢比特币价格大幅下跌:2024年3月加息后比特币下跌23%,7月下跌26%,2025年1月跌幅超30%。分析师警告,若历史重演,比特币可能在12月加息后跌破7万美元。 尽管市场存在焦虑情绪,部分分析师仍持乐观态度。Ted Pillows指出比特币目前正位于月线EMA-21关键支撑位,该位置在过往周期中均成为上涨起点,预计比特币可能先冲高至10-10.5万美元区间再回落。日本作为美债最大海外持有国,其货币政策收紧将影响全球流动性,强日元可能减少风险资产资金流入。比特币未来走势将取决于此次加息后的市场反应,这将决定加密货币市场的年终收官表现。

随着日本央行准备实施可能是几十年来最具影响力的政策行动,比特币正进入一个关键窗口期。市场普遍预期该央行将在12月18-19日的会议上加息25个基点至0.75%,这将是自1995年以来的最高水平,也明确标志着日本持续退出超宽松货币政策。

这一即将发生的事件正在加密货币交易员中引发讨论,因为日本类似的政策行动曾多次与比特币价格暴跌的开始时间重合。

日本加息与重复出现的比特币抛售模式

加密货币市场观察人士迅速指出了一个与比特币和日本央行相关的不安模式。自2024年以来,该银行每次加息,比特币的价格走势都会经历深度且相对快速的回调。

例如,2024年3月,在日本自2007年首次加息后,比特币下跌了约23%。7月类似的加息行动后,比特币下跌了约26%,而2025年1月的加息则导致了更大幅度的下跌,超过30%。

加密货币分析师0xNobler表达了担忧,指出如果这一历史趋势重演,比特币可能在12月决策公布后不久跌至70,000美元以下。他分享的图表说明了每次加息如何与局部市场顶部重合,随后出现明显的下跌走势。这些走势的一致性使得原本可能被视为巧合的情况变成了许多交易员现在认真对待的数据点。

日本利率

这种压力不仅限于加密货币行业的反应。日本是美国政府债务最大的外国持有者,日本央行的任何紧缩政策都会在全球流动性市场产生反响。日本利率上升会提振日元,这反过来又会减少可能流入风险资产的过剩资本。

另一位名为AndrewBTC的加密货币评论员呼应了这一观点,他指出了比特币自2024年以来每次日本央行加息后重复出现的20%至31%的跌幅。他警告说,12月的再次加息可能会产生类似的结果,并指出如果模式重演,70,000美元可能是下行目标。

比特币/美元。来源:X上的@cryptoctlt

比特币位于长期支撑位上方:并非所有人都看跌

尽管对日本央行加息的焦虑日益加剧,但对比特币的前景并非普遍悲观。例如,分析师Ted Pillows指出,比特币目前正与其月线EMA-21均线交互,该水平在之前的周期中始终充当了发射台的角色。

BTCUSD现报90,162美元。图表来源:TradingView

基于这种结构,Pillows预测,在再次出现价格暴跌之前,比特币短期内仍可能飙升至100,000美元至105,000美元区间。

随着12月会议的临近,比特币发现自己陷入了一个令人不安的模式和具有弹性的技术支撑之间。日本的下一次加息是导致又一次即时抛售,还是允许价格暂时向上推动,可能会决定比特币和整个加密货币市场如何结束这一年。

比特币/美元。来源:X上的@TedPillows

特色图片来自Unsplash,图表来自TradingView

Related Questions

Q日本央行预计将在何时进行加息?加息幅度预计是多少?

A日本央行预计将在12月18-19日的会议上加息25个基点至0.75%。

Q自2024年以来,每次日本央行加息后比特币价格通常会出现什么变化?

A自2024年以来,每次日本央行加息后比特币价格都出现了大幅下跌,跌幅在20%至31%之间。

Q分析师0xNobler和AndrewBTC对比特币在12月加息后的价格预测是什么?

A两位分析师都预测,若历史模式重演,比特币价格可能会跌至70,000美元以下。

Q尽管存在加息担忧,分析师Ted Pillows对比特币短期走势有何积极看法?

ATed Pillows指出比特币目前正位于月线EMA-21支撑位,该位置在以往周期中都是上涨起点,他预测比特币可能先涨至10万-10.5万美元区间。

Q日本央行加息为何会对全球风险资产(包括加密货币)产生影响?

A日本作为美国国债最大海外持有国,其加息会推高日元汇率,减少全球市场的过剩资本,从而影响流向风险资产(包括加密货币)的资金量。

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