「影子联储主席」哈塞特发声：下周美联储应该降息，预计 25 基点

深潮Published on 2025-12-04Last updated on 2025-12-05

不过，德银认为即使哈塞特上任，实际执行降息仍面临重重障碍。

撰文：赵颖

来源：华尔街见闻

哈塞特表示美联储应在下周会议上降息，并预计降息幅度为 25 个基点。目前正值特朗普准备提名新任美联储主席之际，市场对货币政策走向的关注度骤升。

周四，「影子联储主席」、白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）在接受 Fox News 采访时表示，从美联储理事和地区联储主席近期的表态来看，「他们现在似乎更倾向于降息」。他强调自己希望在长期内「实现更低的利率水平」，并表示如果市场就 25 个基点形成共识，「我会接受」。

特朗普本周早些时候表示，计划在 2026 年初宣布美联储主席人选，并已确定最终候选人。他近日多次公开称赞哈塞特，并在白宫活动中暗示其可能获得提名。若提名推进，特朗普盟友正讨论将哈塞特目前的职位交由财政部长贝森特兼任。

不过，德银认为即使哈塞特上任，实际执行降息仍面临重重障碍。到 2026 年中期，美国经济基本面可能不支持大幅降息，加上美联储内部鹰派阻力，激进宽松政策难以实现。

长期宽松目标与短期现实妥协

哈塞特在采访中明确表达了对更低利率水平的长期追求，但同时展现出务实态度。他表示，如果联邦公开市场委员会围绕 25 个基点形成共识，他愿意接受这一幅度。

被问及若获提名将追求多少次额外降息时，哈塞特回避了具体数字，强调美联储主席的职责是「对数据高度敏感」，需要考虑利率调整对通胀和就业的影响。这一表态显示出他试图在政策倾向与央行独立性之间寻求平衡。

提名进程加速推进

特朗普近日频繁释放哈塞特可能获得提名的信号。在周二的白宫活动中，特朗普公开表示：「我想这里还有一位潜在的美联储主席，我不知道谁能这么说——潜在的。他是一位受人尊敬的人，我可以告诉你们。谢谢你，Kevin。」

哈塞特本人对提名保持谨慎态度，称「总统正在考虑多位候选人，能与一些优秀人士出现在同一份名单上是我的荣幸。我们会看看结果如何」。特朗普已表示将在 2026 年初宣布最终人选。

市场预期面临现实考验

德银对市场关于「鸽派转向」的乐观情绪发出警示。该行指出，到 2026 年中期，美国经济基本面可能不支持大幅降息，美联储委员会内部的鹰派成员也将构成阻力。

投资者应警惕对激进宽松货币政策的过度定价。德银认为，最终的政策路径很可能远比市场预期更为温和与中性，即使哈塞特成功上任，其政策执行也将受到多重现实约束。

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