Биткоин повторяет траекторию конца 2019 года. Что это значит для рынка

cryptonews.ruPublished on 2025-02-02Last updated on 2025-12-03

Биткоин уже прошел вершину текущего цикла, а альткоины оказались в точке крайней перепроданности. Такой вывод делает аналитик CryptoBullet. Он сравнивает текущую ситуацию с концом 2019 года, когда похожая комбинация факторов привела к развороту динамики между биткоином и широким рынком альткоинов.

Рассказываем, что такое положение в конце 2025 года значит для BTC а альткоинов.

Что такое альтсезон и как к нему подготовиться

Параллели с 2019 годом

CryptoBullet отмечает, что текущая рыночная структура почти полностью повторяет фазу сентября 2019 года. Тогда биткоин консолидировался примерно на 30% ниже локального максимума после семимесячного ралли, а альткоины находились на многолетнем дне относительно первой криптовалюты.

В своем анализе он опирается на динамику OTHERSBTC — рыночного показателя, который используют трейдеры для оценки относительной силы альткоинов против биткоина. Индикатор отражает соотношение между капитализацией широкого сегмента альткоинов и ценой BTC. CryptoBullet обращает внимание на то, что OTHERSBTC снижался четыре года подряд, что является самым длительным спадом за время наблюдений.

Макроэкономическая среда также совпадает с предыдущим циклом. Федеральная резервная система завершила программу QT 1 декабря 2025 года — то же самое происходило в сентябре 2019 года. Тогда окончание ужесточения монетарной политики стало одним из факторов, усиливших интерес к рисковым активам.

Анализ OTHERSBTC и корреляции BTC с циклом 2019 года
Анализ OTHERSBTC и корреляции BTC с циклом 2019 года. Источник: x.com/CryptoBullet

Что это значит для рынка

Аналитик считает, что рынок снова подошел к моменту расхождения траекторий биткоина и альткоинов. Биткоин завершил затянувшийся цикл роста и постепенно теряет импульс. Исторически ослабление биткоина после прохождения вершины создает условия для перераспределения спроса в другие сегменты рынка.

Альткоины, напротив, достигают уровней, которые в предыдущие циклы становились отправной точкой для заметных восстановительных движений. CryptoBullet предполагает, что ближайшие два-три месяца могут пройти под знаком локального оживления на рынке альткоинов. В 2019–2020 годах наблюдалась аналогичная картина: альты усиливались относительно биткоина даже при снижении пары BTCUSD.

Такое поведение он связывает с ротацией ликвидности. Когда биткоин теряет драйв после пика, инвесторы нередко переключаются на более волатильные активы, что создаёт условия для мини-альтсезона.

Прогноз на 2026 год

CryptoBullet рассматривает следующий год как возможную медвежью фазу для биткоина. После прохождения вершины цикла он ожидает глубокую коррекцию, которая исторически сопровождалась ослаблением доминирования биткоина.

Альткоины при этом могут показать умеренное восстановление относительно биткоина. Полномасштабную параболическую фазу, характерную для крупных альтсезонов, аналитик не прогнозирует. По его оценке, она станет реалистичной уже в следующем цикле, ближе к 2027–2029 годам.

Related Reads

Will History Repeat Itself? Fidelity Lists Five Catalysts to End the Crypto Winter

Fidelity's new report suggests that the current crypto winter for Bitcoin may be nearing its end, identifying five potential catalysts that could drive a market turnaround based on historical patterns. First, Bitcoin's approximately four-year cycle, driven by its halving mechanism, historically marks peaks and troughs. The last bottom was in November 2022, potentially pointing to the next around November 2026, though cycle length can vary. Second, clearer regulation has often preceded past bull markets. The focus is now on the CLARITY Act, which aims to clarify US digital asset oversight between the SEC and CFTC. Its passage could unlock domestic activity currently held back by legal uncertainty. Third, Federal Reserve monetary policy plays a role. A shift to lower interest rates tends to correlate with rising crypto prices by reducing borrowing costs and boosting risk appetite, though markets may price this in well ahead of any official change. Fourth, the emergence of breakthrough applications can fuel investor interest. Current trends like real-world asset tokenization, AI-related crypto infrastructure, and stablecoins are being watched, but history shows the biggest catalysts are often unexpected. Fifth, a new wave of institutional adoption could be a trigger. While ongoing adoption in 2026 hasn't sparked a new bull run, a major unexpected move—like a significant purchase by a tech giant or adoption as a hedge in a global crisis—could create a powerful new narrative. Fidelity concludes that while the market is in a downturn, historical turning points have often resulted from a combination of such factors, and the next phase for Bitcoin may depend on which of these catalysts materializes first.

Foresight News5m ago

Will History Repeat Itself? Fidelity Lists Five Catalysts to End the Crypto Winter

Foresight News5m ago

India’s USDT premium surges above 8.5% as regulatory pressure tightens supply

India's USDT premium has surged above 8.5% as regulatory pressure tightens the supply of stablecoins domestically. This has pushed the price of USDT to ₹102.88 against an official USD/INR rate of ₹94.65, widening the premium well beyond its typical 3-4% range. The supply contraction, driven by enforcement actions and increased oversight discouraging capital inflows, has created a significant imbalance. Demand from traders, cross-border users, and businesses remains strong for uses like payments and dollar-backed value storage, but compliance risks are hindering arbitrage and new USDT inflows. Market data shows high transaction counts but low volumes, with buy volume severely lagging sell volume, indicating constrained liquidity and reduced market-making capacity. Prolonged regulatory uncertainty risks sustaining elevated premiums, pushing activity toward informal channels or offshore liquidity. The summary concludes that while demand for USDT in India is resilient, clearer regulations and improved compliance pathways are needed to restore supply, efficient pricing, and market efficiency by narrowing the premium.

ambcrypto1h ago

India’s USDT premium surges above 8.5% as regulatory pressure tightens supply

ambcrypto1h ago

US CFTC Launches Broad Investigation into Polymarket, Is the Prediction Market Party Coming to an End?

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is conducting a broad investigation into the prediction market platform Polymarket, focusing on its business practices including social media promotions. This follows a bipartisan letter from U.S. senators urging the CFTC to probe alleged fraudulent marketing tactics used to promote gambling-like products. The action coincides with a period of explosive growth for the prediction market sector, driven by events like the World Cup, with platforms like Kalshi and Robinhood reporting record trading volumes and revenue. The investigation signals a potential end to the sector's unregulated expansion and may lead to clearer federal oversight, particularly regarding investor protection and distinguishing prediction markets from traditional sports betting. The CFTC's move has also intensified a jurisdictional conflict with multiple U.S. states (including Kentucky and New York), which have sued platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, accusing them of operating illegal sports betting and threatening state gambling tax revenues. Furthermore, the CME Group has sued the CFTC, challenging its approval of certain prediction market products. The report also highlights the political and capital interests intertwined with the industry. Donald Trump Jr. holds advisory and investment roles in both Kalshi and Polymarket, and the Trump administration has previously emphasized federal regulatory authority over these markets. The CFTC's investigation into Polymarket is framed as a step towards formalizing the industry's regulatory landscape, moving it from a phase of "wild growth" towards a more structured future.

marsbit2h ago

US CFTC Launches Broad Investigation into Polymarket, Is the Prediction Market Party Coming to an End?

marsbit2h ago

U.S. CFTC Launches Extensive Investigation into Polymarket, Is the Prediction Market Frenzy Season Cooling Down?

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has launched a broad investigation into the prediction market platform Polymarket, focusing on its business practices including social media activities. This follows a bipartisan letter from U.S. senators urging the CFTC to probe allegations of paid influencer false marketing and fraudulent promotion of gambling-like products to American users. The investigation comes as the prediction market sector experiences explosive growth, largely driven by the World Cup. Weekly trading volumes have hit record highs, exceeding $14.4 billion, with platforms like Kalshi and Robinhood's new venture seeing significant activity. Major firms like Meta are also showing interest in the space. This regulatory scrutiny signals a potential end to the sector's "wild growth" phase. The CFTC's move also highlights an escalating jurisdictional conflict between federal regulators and state authorities. Over a dozen states, including Kentucky and New York, have sued platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, accusing them of operating illegal sports betting, which threatens state gambling tax revenues. The CFTC is countersuing to assert its exclusive federal jurisdiction over these "event contracts" as derivatives. Furthermore, the CFTC's approval of Kalshi's Bitcoin perpetual futures contract has sparked a lawsuit from traditional exchange CME, alleging regulatory overreach. The political and capital landscape is intricate, with Donald Trump Jr. holding advisory roles and investments in both Kalshi and Polymarket. This connects capital, political influence, and regulatory bodies, suggesting the current investigation may be a step toward formalizing the industry's rules rather than halting its progress.

Odaily星球日报2h ago

U.S. CFTC Launches Extensive Investigation into Polymarket, Is the Prediction Market Frenzy Season Cooling Down?

Odaily星球日报2h ago

Father of Claude Code's Latest Assessment: Team Division of Labor Rewritten in the AI Era, These 'Five Types' Are Most in Demand

"In the era of AI reshaping software development, Anthropic's Claude Code team lead, Boris Cherny, proposes a future where traditional job titles dissolve. He identifies five fluid, behavior-based roles emerging in effective, AI-augmented teams: The Prototyper (generates disruptive ideas), The Builder (scales prototypes to production), The Sweeper (streamlines and refactors to combat bloat), The Growth (iterates on launched products for market fit), and The Maintainer (ensures long-term security and reliability). Crucially, these are not fixed positions. Individuals may span multiple roles depending on the project and its lifecycle stage. A designer might be a Prototyper and Sweeper; an engineer could be a Builder and Maintainer. Team composition should shift with product maturity: early-stage products need Prototypers, Builders, and Sweepers, while scaling products require more Builders, Growth roles, and Maintainers. The discussion highlights that role fluidity is key, as professionals often switch roles across different projects or as a single project evolves. While AI tools like Claude increasingly assist with tasks like building and sweeping, human adaptability and focus on goals over rigid job boundaries are seen as essential for future teams."

marsbit2h ago

Father of Claude Code's Latest Assessment: Team Division of Labor Rewritten in the AI Era, These 'Five Types' Are Most in Demand

marsbit2h ago

Trading

Spot
活动图片