Аналитик сравнил курс биткоина со сжатой пружиной

cryptonews.ruPublished on 2025-11-26Last updated on 2025-11-29

В последний раз подобное «асимметричное соотношение риска и вознаграждения» в биткоине наблюдалось во время пандемии COVID-19. Таким мнением поделился глава отдела исследований цифровых активов Bitwise в Европе Андре Драгош.

This is probably the most important work I’ve done on #Bitcoin & Macro so far.

It involves a lot of computation and is somewhat complex — because financial markets are complex at the end of the day.

The question investors constantly face is:

“𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝗱 𝗶𝗻… pic.twitter.com/TUaFGM5SAT
— André Dragosch, PhD⚡ (@Andre_Dragosch) November 28, 2025

«Тогда биткоин быстро восстановился после шока в марте 2020 года, а затем вырос в шесть раз. Называйте это сжатой пружиной, шариком под водой — как вам нравится», — заявил аналитик.

Он отметил, что с точки зрения макроэкономических новостей инвесторы закладывают в курс первой криптовалюты опасения рецессии. В реальности угроза спада отступает. Поэтому все негативные нарративы уже учтены в котировках цифрового золота, считает Драгош.

«Я думаю, что ожидания относительно роста мировой экономики ускорятся с этого момента, исходя из объемов денежно-кредитного стимулирования, что указывает на возобновление ускорения, включая 2026 год», — уверен эксперт.

Исторический оптимизм

Трейдер под ником Mister Crypto уверен, что биткоин по традиции продемонстрирует рост в конце года после Дня благодарения (27 ноября).

Bitcoin always pumps after Thanksgiving.

I doubt this time will be different. pic.twitter.com/LnhpJaVmWW
— Mister Crypto (@misterrcrypto) November 29, 2025

По его мнению, краткосрочная структура рынка демонстрирует признаки стабилизации после капитуляции. Данные свидетельствуют об открытии крупными игроками новых длинных позиций в биткоине. При этом настроения инвесторов находятся в зоне экстремального страха, что исторически предшествовало восстановлению котировок.

Индекс относительной силы RSI приблизился к значению 30. В предыдущих бычьих циклах эта отметка совпадала с рыночными минимумами и разворотом.

В пользу вероятного отскока говорит и отклонение тренда биткоина от графика 50-недельной скользящей средней, которая сейчас составляет $102 000. Чаще всего криптовалюта восстанавливала паритет с метрикой.

Mister Crypto также обратил внимание на благоприятный макроэкономический фон для цифрового золота. Рынки ожидают прекращения Федеральной резервной системой США политики количественного ужесточения и снижения ключевой ставки в декабре.

В отношении долгосрочных перспектив криптовалюты эксперт дал осторожный прогноз. По его оценке, в целом рынок находится в медвежьей фазе, и за восстановлением может последовать новый спад, поскольку условия для устойчивого роста не сформированы.

Напомним, аналитики ARK Invest перечислили декабрьские драйверы для биткоина.

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