[Key interpretation] BTC whale sell-off reduced financing leverage, Fallback signal

Huobi ResearchPublished on 2022-06-28Last updated on 2022-07-07

Abstract

BTC price volatility weakened and downward adjustment pressure increased.

1、 BTC has limited amplitude in low price area

The weekly K-line chart is hourly. After the horizontal consolidation of BTC last week, the trading volume has shrunk by 50%. BTC price performance this week remains unchanged

In the case of relatively weak and limited rebound space, the key support level of USD 17246 is still valid for price support. However, the market did not develop in the direction beneficial to the bulls.

With the decrease of bargain hunting at low price, BTC trend returns to the state of volume reduction, and the possibility of closing price retreat in the short term increases. Driven by the pullback of trading volume on the chain and the increase of main sales, we focus on low absorption opportunities.

2. Increase in BTC main selling

On June 27, the data showed that the proportion of giant whale selling on the exchange rebounded significantly, reaching a recent high of around 0.665. The selling of the main force in the exchange increased, and maintained a high level after April. The risk of holding currency in recent transactions is still high. Therefore, in the process of buying BTC at a low price, the number of positions in a single price range can control the amount of investment without obvious withdrawal.

3. BTC transaction financing leverage decreased

After the financing leverage ratio of BTC transaction decreased, the value on June 28 dropped to -0.0085, indicating that investors' enthusiasm for active buying decreased significantly. As the market is relatively depressed, when the leverage ratio of BTC's financing purchase drops below 0, it means that the acquisition cost of BTC is very low. The decline of BTC transaction financing leverage ratio means that the market downturn remains unchanged, and more trading opportunities may appear after the price retreat.

During this period, we should also pay attention to the diving trend of BTC. Especially when the financing interest rate is low, the short selling energy is strong, and the price rising power is obviously insufficient. At the point, the 78.6% Fibonacci corresponding to $17622 is very important, which is an important support for BTC to maintain its strength in the near future.

4. Stagnate near eth pressure level

The rebound strength of eth is limited, and the trading volume is also in a shrinking state when the price is soon blocked in the middle rail position of the brin line. This stage is not conducive to the continuation of the rebound trend of eth prices. The trading volume of eth was significantly higher than that on June 10, and continued to decline after reaching the peak on June 13. At the transaction level, investors' willingness to enter the market at a low price is reduced, and the market remains depressed. In the near future, we can pay attention to the support effect of $1106 corresponding to 78.6% of Fibonacci.

5. Eth daily trading volume contraction

After the daily trading volume of eth gradually dropped from the peak recently, the value is near the average level in the past one year. According to this judgment, the increase in investor trading volume caused by the price decline has subsided, and the price trend continues to maintain weak consolidation. Considering that the peak trading volume on the chain in June was large, and the ETH price reached a low of US $881 at the lowest. Therefore, investors who enter the market at a low price still have an effective impact on the market, but the energy to actively pull up is not high, and the increase space may end below $1500.

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